Michigan Preseason Massey Win Pct. vs. Week 6
I know, rankings are inaccurate and so on, but I still think this is an interesting indication of how this team is outperforming expectations so far. (And that certain other teams may be underperforming)
| Opponent | Pre Win% | Wk 6 Win% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern | 57 | 60 | +3 |
| Michigan State | 16 | 50 | +34 |
| Minnesota | 37 | 74 | +37 |
| Rutgers | 56 | 90 | +34 |
| Indiana | 60 | 77 | +17 |
| Penn State | 46 | 70 | +24 |
| Ohio State | 9 | 34 | +25 |
Note: Pre indicates preseason win percentage. Percentages given are the likelihood of Michigan winning.
Expected wins is now up to 8.55 from a preseason expectation of 5.6
October 5th, 2015 at 10:00 AM ^
"Pre" expectations and all but that's just...phew
October 5th, 2015 at 10:18 AM ^
That was my first reaction too. I mean Carroo is good and all but damn, 56% at home? No.
October 5th, 2015 at 10:31 AM ^
+1. I hope this was a joke to get us fired up...
October 5th, 2015 at 10:33 AM ^
Last year, we were beating ourselves. I think the pre-season punditry were basically saying that talk is cheap.
Evidently, Harbaugh agrees.
October 5th, 2015 at 12:17 PM ^
It's understandable though as the algorithm weights recent performance. Without any of 2015's data in there in August, Massey would have made Michigan out to be a 6-6-ish team (allowing for the possibility that you are definitely at risk in games just about that 50% line). I am working on the matrix today, but the swing is now to about 9-3, so in five games, Michigan has gone +3 on projected wins. Not bad indeed.
October 5th, 2015 at 11:48 AM ^
October 5th, 2015 at 10:03 AM ^
Interesting stuff, thanks for posting...
One of the more telling changes is the high confidence that we'll win the games we're supposed to - Indiana, Rut, PSU, MN - which is a feeling we haven't had in a while.
Feels good to believe the team will take care of business
October 5th, 2015 at 11:37 AM ^
than their pre-season expectations. It's turned an away game slate from one with a couple of battles into one that a sweep is a good bet--the most likely outcome in my book and a 40% likelihood according to the Massey numbers above.
October 5th, 2015 at 10:03 AM ^
I wonder what will happen if we beat Northwestern like 21-0 or something. Our expected wins would probably be over 9 games.
October 5th, 2015 at 10:21 AM ^
October 5th, 2015 at 10:23 AM ^
October 5th, 2015 at 10:22 AM ^
Hail Harbaugh.
October 5th, 2015 at 10:31 AM ^
comes through Ann Arbor this year. MSU will be a two loss team (us and OSU), and OSU will coast through the rest of the season until they play MSU, who will have their asses handed to them in Columbus.
October 5th, 2015 at 10:37 AM ^
Yeah, I don't see Sparty beating the Buckeyes this year. Maybe it could happen in East Lansing, but almost definitely not in Columbus.
I think by the time Mark Dantonio, et al, arrive in Columbus, Urban will have J.T. Barrett starting at QB and the OSU offense will be humming. Especially on Ezekiel's legs. Yeesh, that guy is good.
October 5th, 2015 at 10:40 AM ^
why he keeps playing Jones, but I sure do hope he starts in A2.
October 5th, 2015 at 11:00 AM ^
October 5th, 2015 at 11:01 AM ^
October 5th, 2015 at 11:15 AM ^
I agree with this. Its an interesting situation where one one hand we want Harbaugh and Co. to have as much time with the team before playing the bucks, but it would also be nice to play them at this level, as opposed to the end of the season when I fully expect them to be playing at full speed.
Either way, we'll get our chance and its nice to be excited about that game instead of terrified like it has been the last couple years.
October 5th, 2015 at 11:28 AM ^
Haha.
If OSU is assessed by what they've done on the field this year, they're no where near #1.
If all information on OSU is used (i.e. they've got basically all the players from their National Championship team back), then they have to be ranked #1.
They're in some kind of bad Funk right now. (Is he coaching there now? That might do it.)