Michigan opens as a 4 point favorite against Penn St.
As the title says, Michigan opens as a 4 point favorite. I suppose that makes sense all things considered. Over/under 55.5
other notable lines -
Northwestern 9 point favorite over Sparty
Notre Dame 4 point favorite at NC
Iowa St at Texas is a pick em’
HERE for the link to all the opening lines.
November 22nd, 2020 at 4:33 PM ^
4 points:
1) Maybe we'll win.
2) Maybe PSU suckitude outweighs Michigan's.
3) Maybe the game won't require angry angst and bitchy pitchforks.
4) It's on the schedule so we have to play it.
November 22nd, 2020 at 4:55 PM ^
We can hope for a few positive cases. Maybe like FSU game. The PSU ball boy tests positive and UM just says "NOPE!"
November 22nd, 2020 at 5:58 PM ^
Because we can’t beat an 0-5 team?
November 22nd, 2020 at 6:50 PM ^
Well, actually yes. They didn't hammered by Indiana.
November 22nd, 2020 at 4:36 PM ^
Sounds about right, hopefully Kwity plays and Cade keeps up his solid play, if that happens then I think we could actually have a comfortable win, just hope the coaches don't get in the way of potential progress.
November 22nd, 2020 at 4:41 PM ^
I like the way you think. Maybe have the coaches sit this one out.
November 22nd, 2020 at 6:27 PM ^
Kwity has very few good reasons to play at this point. He's going to be a high draft pick. Why risk it to play for a lousy team during a huge COVID surge?
November 22nd, 2020 at 4:36 PM ^
Damn double post.
Go Blue!
November 22nd, 2020 at 4:42 PM ^
Expectations for this game:
- Come out of tunnel
- Do NOT immediately set self ablaze
November 22nd, 2020 at 4:46 PM ^
Here's a stat ..... Penn State is 2-19-1 against the spread (1) under James Franklin, (2) in regular season games that immediately follow a loss.
2-19-1!!!!
That's kind of incredible when you think of it: the spread is, of course, set such that teams should theoretically be .500 winning or losing against the spread over time.
Instead, PSU is at about .100 in this particular situation.
Franklin's PSU teams have a sustained history of not responding well after facing adversity (in this case, losing a game).
If one is a gambler, I think U-M is the play on Saturday, because of this dynamic alone.
November 22nd, 2020 at 4:57 PM ^
That is an absolutely astounding stat. I'd love to know how UMs Harbaugh teams perform in the same situation.
November 22nd, 2020 at 5:07 PM ^
For Michigan under Harbaugh, this is what I have per my spreadsheet:
2015 --- 1-1. Covered vs Oregon State after Utah. Did not vs. Minnesota after MSU.
2016 --- 0-1. Did not cover vs Indiana after Iowa.
2017 --- 1-1-1. Push vs Indiana after MSU. Did not cover (by 1 point) vs Rutgers after PSU. Covered (by 1/2 point) vs OSU after Wisconsin.
2018 --- 1-0. Covered vs WMU after Notre Dame.
2019 --- 2-0. Covered vs Rutgers after Wisconsin. Covered vs Notre Dame after PSU.
2020 --- 0-3. Failed to cover vs all of Indiana, Wisconsin and Rutgers.
Add it all up, and that's 5-6-1.
Of note, no Bowl Games included above. U-M is 1-4 ATS in those games, all the Bowls were the next game after OSU but with a much larger time gap in between, of course.
November 22nd, 2020 at 5:34 PM ^
Thanks for the breakdown, it matches what I pulled from the teamrankings site and posted below.
So if you don't count bowl games, Harbaugh was better than .500 until this year, where the lines were slow to catch up to the results - there was a lot of pre-season expectation built into the IU and even Wisconsin lines.
I do think there is something to the 1-4 record in bowls , SU and ATS, that speaks to a letdown after a loss to OSU in particular, which is distinct from their record in other games after losses in the regular season.
November 22nd, 2020 at 6:06 PM ^
I think we definitely had a post-OSU letdown in 2018 against Florida, but I don’t know about the others. FSU and South Carolina were games we lost in the final minutes and we hung in there with Bama for three quarters.
This does point to a different issue under Harbaugh: we struggle to win close games against teams with comparable talent. Sometimes we blow the doors off them (Florida, PSU a couple of times, Wisconsin ‘18, ND ‘19) but if it’s a close game, we tend not to finish well, if we don’t have a definite talent advantage.
November 22nd, 2020 at 6:53 PM ^
In the last couple of bowl games we had several players either injured or sitting out for the draft. Motivation to win a bowl after another OSU loss is pretty low.
November 22nd, 2020 at 5:16 PM ^
I found an amazing site that actually shows this. Here's the link
Since 2015, Penn State indeed is 1-16-1 ATS after a loss, for a cover % of 5.9%. The next worst is Hawaii at 22% after a loss. PSU has averaged underperforming the spread by 10 points in these games, which is pretty wild. Again, the worst in D-1.
Michigan is 6-10-1, or 37.5%. I am digging into the numbers a little and that doesn't seem to be a statistically significant difference from 50/50, which is what you would expect a team to perform ATS. The underperformance to the line is 1.5, which is pretty close. I think we all know that Michigan has historically gotten an extra point or so due to the name and money associated with the team. So while Harbaugh's teams have not overperformed in games after a loss, I don't think you can conclude they've been significantly underperforming either.
Interestingly, the "worst" on the list is Clemson, which since 2015 has NEVER covered after a loss. Of course, they've only had 2 regular season losses in that 6 year span, so going 0-1-1 (and winning both games after a loss) is really a sample size issue. We'll see how they do in their next game, only their 3rd game immediately following a loss. This obviously doesn't count the first game of a season following a bowl loss in the previous season.
November 22nd, 2020 at 5:32 PM ^
Great link --- thank you for sharing that, I've never seen that before!
One further anecdote: PSU's one win ATS in this situation in the 2015-2020 time frame was the 2018 Wisconsin game (they also beat Ohio State ATS in 2014 in an overtime loss, that game coming off the U-M loss).
Anyway, in that game, PSU was favored at home by 7.5. PSU leads 22-10, Wisconsin gets the ball with about 5:00 left. They are stopped on downs with 2:00 left. Wisconsin only has 1 time out left. So just run the ball three times, at worst you punt with 0:30 left. But PSU fumbles the ball on the very next play! So Wisconsin gets another chance, but again is stopped on downs. The game ends 22-10.
Even PSU's one ATS win in that situation, they almost blew it!
------------
Also on that link --- Penn State is the BEST team ATS since 2015 coming off of a win! Wow.
November 22nd, 2020 at 5:51 PM ^
Responding to your edit - that's pretty crazy how polarized PSU has been. If they win, they keep it rolling with more wins and covers. If they lose, it all falls apart like it has this season.
Maybe it's just the general bloody-mindedness of the universe, but do you think there is something that Franklin's coaching has to do with it? I'm speculating that whatever motivational tactics he uses work especially well with success but don't work at all when losses happen. It's certainly a weird stat.
November 22nd, 2020 at 7:17 PM ^
Franklin has always struck me --- from day one --- as a "momentum guy." When he's on, he's on. But when he's off, whoa boy.
I sort of have that same personality type myself --- I got the phrase "momentum guy" as feedback from an old boss of mine. So I am, for better or worse, intimately familiar with the type.
Anyway, that stat certainly fits with that description.
November 22nd, 2020 at 5:08 PM ^
Franklin is not good at football, but your offense hasn't really been shut down this season. 0-5 or 2-19, whatever, a competent offense is a bad matchup for Michigan right now.
November 22nd, 2020 at 4:48 PM ^
I'd be OK with a 4 point win at this point as long as Cade looks good.
Season ended during the MSU game. Finding the next great QB is all that can save the program in the near future. Let's hope Cade can play consistently for the rest of the year. Finding an upgrade at QB with lot's of remaining eligibility would do more for the future of the program than anything else we could hope for in 2020.
November 22nd, 2020 at 4:49 PM ^
With Joe Milton starting on Saturday, they won't score....I'm taking PSU and the points.
November 22nd, 2020 at 4:58 PM ^
I suspect you're being sarcastic with that, but it would not surprise me to see Milton start this Saturday. I think there's a level of loyalty to Milton on the part of Harbaugh and/or Gattis that tips the scale to Milton starting with a warmed-up McNamara in the wings. I could be wrong, but like I said: it would not surprise me.
November 22nd, 2020 at 5:11 PM ^
I too am concerned about the stubbornness of the coaching staff
Cade more than earned it after his performance
If he doesnt get the start, whatever support the staff had before will be gone for good
November 22nd, 2020 at 5:18 PM ^
This will be Cade's first career start, hopefully.
November 22nd, 2020 at 5:24 PM ^
Yes, I was being sarcastic, but I do not trust the coaches to make the right decision.
November 25th, 2020 at 1:05 AM ^
I truly hope you are 100% wrong on this. I am not saying your post is wrong just hoping this for sure does NOT happen. =)
Cade played so good I don't think there is any going back unless he just completely craps the bed in a game.
November 22nd, 2020 at 4:50 PM ^
nty, we know that this team is a work in progress during this hellish season.
November 22nd, 2020 at 4:54 PM ^
Our game might be close but I think I'd take the points.
NW might not score many, but geesh they will beat MSU by at least 14. Probably something like 17-3.
ND will KILL UNC unless they get really covidy
Come on ISU, well maybe not. Every time Campbell wins, his cost goes up for UM.
November 22nd, 2020 at 4:59 PM ^
Ohio State pulls so many elite recruits out of Texas, including 5-star QB Ewers this week, one of the highest ranked recruits ever. I root for a Texas simply out of hope they’ll get better and close off Ohio State’s pipeline.
November 22nd, 2020 at 4:59 PM ^
What's your view of the 55.5 over/under? My gut says take the over on that.
November 22nd, 2020 at 5:08 PM ^
Well, since our defense can’t stop anyone, including staee and rutgers, i think we’ll give up a bunch of points. The only question is - is harbaugh clueless enough to start milton again? If so, which I’d guess is a 50/5 proposition; the next question is - how long until milton gets pulled? I’m thinking soon enough to make the over a good bet.
November 22nd, 2020 at 5:25 PM ^
Michigan's been over in every game this year except MSU, which missed by a point. PSU is 2-2-1 to the O/U, needing OT in the Indiana game to hit the over.
My mind is telling me to take the over based on that, but my gut is thinking this may be a low score sludgefart game on a holiday weekend where both teams don't really care. I could see it in the range of 24-17 or 28-20 (for either team) and not getting particularly close to the number. Particularly if weather is a factor or there are more turnovers than touchdowns. I'll think about it all week, but my first impression is under.
November 22nd, 2020 at 4:55 PM ^
NW is going to kill sparty. Take the points and bet big.
November 22nd, 2020 at 7:26 PM ^
What’s the O/U on that game? I’m guessing 12.
November 22nd, 2020 at 5:15 PM ^
I’ve never looked less forward to watching football.
November 22nd, 2020 at 5:17 PM ^
Hard to know... feels like more of a 3 pt game, considering how both teams are playing.
If Cade starts, i think Michigan should win.
Friermuth (sp) is out for PSU. Him and Brown were really the biggest offensive threats on their roster.
I think the challenge will be the defense stopping the read option as their game plan will include quite a bit of read option which will open up some throws.
November 22nd, 2020 at 5:56 PM ^
Yup, my BPONE tells me this will come down to a last minute field goal either way, and so 4 points to PSU is enough to cover.
November 22nd, 2020 at 6:08 PM ^
About right: 2 pts for a diminished home field advantage, and 1 pt each for the 2 wins Michigan has, and Penn State doesn't.
Take the over; not even Brady Hoke would be dumb enough to start Milton after the last game.
Now, Don "Yosemite Sam" Brown would be ("I wonder if he's stubborn enough to open all them doors?" BLAM! "Yup, he's stubborn enough."), but he coaches the defense.
November 22nd, 2020 at 6:09 PM ^
If Cade starts, Michigan will blow out PSU. UM will be energetic, PSU already knows the season is toast.
If Milton starts, UM will lose.
November 22nd, 2020 at 6:16 PM ^
Blow them out? Don’t get me wrong. I despise Penn State and would LOVE for us to blow them out. But we just went to three overtimes with Rutgers.
Has PSU played a defense as horrible as ours in their 5 games? I doubt it.
November 22nd, 2020 at 8:50 PM ^
How do you blow out a team when you can't get any stops?
November 22nd, 2020 at 6:27 PM ^
Is Milton starting?
November 22nd, 2020 at 6:39 PM ^
Rutgers ran the quarterback on key downs for success! That's psu bread and butter! Going to have to stop that! I'm know this and I'm sure our staff doesnt! What a shame!
November 22nd, 2020 at 7:13 PM ^
Loud noises
November 22nd, 2020 at 7:23 PM ^
Faux Sports brings you the big game of the week in which Frames Janklin’s incompetent Penn State plays Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan Wolverines off a what the heck did they start Milton for this season game against Rutgers!
If you like poor defenses and the worst clock management in college football, this is the game for you!
November 22nd, 2020 at 8:12 PM ^
Take PSU and the points.
November 22nd, 2020 at 8:49 PM ^
I would definitely bet Penn State (numbers I follow have them 2-3 points better than Michigan) if I knew Milton was starting. That he may not makes it off the board for me.
November 22nd, 2020 at 10:45 PM ^
I like the OVER because we will give up points, no doubt about it. No evidence that we can hold any team to under 24 points or so. We will score in the 30s, or 40s if Cade is on and we retain some momentum from the second half of the Rutgers game.
Cade starts...I hope. And I think Michigan wins this one pretty easily, let's call it 45 - 31.