Michigan 12th in new SP+ rankings
Full rankings:
A couple notes:
Michigan is now 20th in offense but drops to 10th in defense. OSU drops from #1 to #2 in defense.
Imagine being a Washington fan this year.
Michigan lost to the overall #1, #9, and #10, the latter two on the road. They defeated the #18, #20, and #24, the latter one on the road.
Connelly said in a tweet that Michigan's 5-year SP+ under Harbaugh is 7th in the country. Unfortunately, our biggest rival is better than that.
Yeah, Michigan’s currently 7th in 5-year SP+ — he’s done an outstanding job. And the rival to which UM will always compare itself is on a historic run of awesomeness at the moment.
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 30, 2019
https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1200866352178880513
December 1st, 2019 at 2:14 PM ^
Thank you for MUCH NEEDED perspective! Go Blue!
December 1st, 2019 at 2:20 PM ^
Perspective of what? Trying to justify 9-3 and still not making it to Indianapolis?
December 1st, 2019 at 2:30 PM ^
Go away, cry baby.
December 1st, 2019 at 2:35 PM ^
Calls me a cry baby in a childish rebuttal. haha
December 1st, 2019 at 4:09 PM ^
He shouldn't have called you a cry baby.
You are a negative-attitude loser, not a cry baby.
December 1st, 2019 at 3:02 PM ^
If they didn’t realign the divisions from the Leaders and Legends days Michigan would’ve gone to Indy last year. And in 2016.
December 1st, 2019 at 5:04 PM ^
Are you pining for the glory days of Rich Rod and Hoke?
December 1st, 2019 at 2:21 PM ^
No problem. This Connelly thread has some good information:
Trying to come up with the best historic examples of “coach obviously doing a good job, but main rival is untouchably awesome” in CFB.
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 30, 2019
Osborne losing to OU every year from 1973-81, maybe?https://t.co/QLk4NG1HtA
https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1200870650090606592
Also some good stuff about how it took terrible luck for Alabama to lose to Auburn yesterday, as Alabama had a 94% win probability play-to-play. Would be nice if OSU could hand us a few fluky pick-sixes and dumb penalties once in a while, but they just don't.
December 1st, 2019 at 2:48 PM ^
although...Osborne did beat Oklahoma in '78 and the inexplicably lost the next game to Missouri so...instead of possibly playing for a national championship, they would up playng Oklahoma again in a dreary Orange Bowl and lost
December 1st, 2019 at 2:21 PM ^
The game is at Washington. It’ll be a repeat of the Utah and ND games.
December 1st, 2019 at 4:10 PM ^
Or not.
December 1st, 2019 at 2:22 PM ^
I guess this SP thing gives people something to talk about.
December 1st, 2019 at 2:23 PM ^
Yep. Reality is what Connelly is saying.
Now of Texas had a better program that could help keep great Texas recruits going to OSU. goodness: okudah, Dobbins et Al all Texans.
Anyways, Michigan needs to keep at it. Stop panicking - work hard at recruiting and keep getting top 10 classes. The breakthrough will come.
December 1st, 2019 at 2:33 PM ^
I'm surprised Oklahoma isn't nabbing these guys.
December 1st, 2019 at 3:18 PM ^
As to the latter point (get back to work), I’m not sure getting back to work is enough if they get back to work in +/- the same ways. I think it’s awesome Harbaugh has been more statistically successful than it appears, and I do think he’s often judged far and away more for his faults than his virtues, but shouldn’t we want better for this team? I mean don’t you think we should be upset by long droughts in terms of Big Ten championships, wins over OSU, lack of visits to the CFP? I mean every year OSU basically tells us the problem: “I just think we take it more seriously than they do,” said Justin Fields. “We prepare for it all year. I think it just means more at Ohio State. That's pretty much the bigger reason why we have more success than they do.”
December 1st, 2019 at 2:23 PM ^
"Michigan is great, but OSU is greater" doesn't explain away the 2+ other losses every year.
December 1st, 2019 at 2:27 PM ^
Or the absolute blowouts, or how teams this board would consider to have less talent do better.
December 1st, 2019 at 2:29 PM ^
No, it doesn't.
Penn State and Wisconsin were slightly better this year, and those games were on the road.
7th in aggregate SP+ means a couple teams on the schedule (including bowls, which you seem to be) might be slightly better in any given year.
What Harbaugh seems to have done is return Michigan to a 9-3/10-2 era that has a limited ceiling (relative to the elite programs) but a very high floor. That is what I mostly grew up with in the '80s and '90s.
The main difference now is that Harbaugh doesn't get to face Earle Bruce and John Cooper.
December 1st, 2019 at 2:30 PM ^
Michigan is in the equivalent of a 6/7/8 seed NBA purgatory.
You either blow it up and start over or pray things change. Lets see if the 3 coaching changes does anything for next year as umbig11 suggested.
December 1st, 2019 at 2:33 PM ^
What was umbig11 talking about? I must have missed it.
December 1st, 2019 at 2:31 PM ^
There is an explanation: almost all of those have been road games against teams of comparable quality (PSU, ND, Wisconsin).
In fact, I believe 2016 Iowa is the only team we've lost to under Harbaugh that finished with a worse record than us. And that was a night game at Kinnick.
December 1st, 2019 at 2:34 PM ^
Among all the Harbaugh losses, the South Carolina and FSU bowl losses were the worst. Especially SC - that team was mediocre at best.
December 1st, 2019 at 3:07 PM ^
Michigan wasn't great that year either though. Both teams were 8-4 going in.
December 1st, 2019 at 4:24 PM ^
Everyone on here gave SC zero chance. Losing that game was very surprising at the time.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:41 PM ^
Nope.. and the fact that he has no wins as an underdog. Unreal. Some would say the ND win this year was as a dog, but that line closed as a pick at some books.
December 1st, 2019 at 2:23 PM ^
Thank you for this! UM hasn't beaten Ohio St. in a while but who has? Ok...so we're not elite, only 7th, according to Connelly's metric.
December 1st, 2019 at 2:42 PM ^
I just looked it up:
2018 - Purdue
2017 - Iowa, Oklahoma
2016 - Penn State, Clemson
2015 - Michigan State
2014 - Virginia Tech
2013 - Michigan State, Clemson
2012 - Undefeated
2011 - Miami, Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue, Penn State, Michigan, Florida
So yeah, teams do it, except Michigan (Unless it's Luke Fickell).
December 1st, 2019 at 3:22 PM ^
So, nine losses in the last eight seasons. One in the last two years. They haven't been literally impossible to beat, just very close.
To put that in perspective: we had the best record in all of college football in the 1970s, when our record was 96-16-3.
OSU since 2012 is 98-9.
December 1st, 2019 at 4:17 PM ^
It's because Purdue wanted it more and devoted its whole year to preparing for OSU.
If only Michigan could want to beat OSU like Purdue does.
[For the humor impaired: I'm making fun of the people who think Michigan doesn't want to win enough.]
December 1st, 2019 at 2:26 PM ^
What does Washington have to do with it?
December 1st, 2019 at 4:34 PM ^
Nothing to do with Michigan, just noting that season has to be maddening. 16th in SP+ (ahead of Oregon, and just behind Baylor), yet they go 7-5 after a bunch of close losses, some to mediocre teams.
December 1st, 2019 at 4:34 PM ^
Edit: double post
I'll add that I was mostly posting SP+ as information, do what you will with it. I do think people overlook the success Harbaugh has had in raising the bar back to where it used to be, but I join them in also wanting more. I'm just not sure a head coaching change is how to get there, and the risks of returning to true mediocrity are real.
December 1st, 2019 at 2:27 PM ^
I wonder if there is a stat on how well these stats correlate to W/L and how fsr we are underperforming expectations.
These type of stats is why I am not currently a customer at Ann Arbor torch and pitchfork.
December 1st, 2019 at 2:35 PM ^
That 7th ranking over 5 years is earned from consistently achieving 9-10 wins per season. Being a Top 10 program doesn't suck folks. OSU is just on a fabulous run relative to everyone in the B1G and they are right there with the elite - Alabama and Clemson. The talent gap needs to be closed. We are chipping away at it but these elite programs have a huge talent lock that needs to be attacked.
December 1st, 2019 at 2:49 PM ^
We are not a top ten program. We've literally only finished in the top ten once in 5 years at season's end, #10 in 2016.
December 1st, 2019 at 4:07 PM ^
Clear top 5 programs over last 5 years:
- Alabama
- Clemson
- Ohio State
- Oklahoma
- Georgia
After that elite 5, who has been better than UM during that entire period ? Maybe LSU and PSU, but who else ? Not Auburn, Florida - each had a couple shit years (including UM 2-1 head to head with Florida). Notre Dame gets a vote. Not Wisconsin. So who else based on the past 5 seasons ? Show your list.
Edit - here is my list:
- Alabama
- Clemson
- Ohio State
- Oklahoma
- Georgia
- Notre Dame
- LSU
- PSU
- Auburn
- Michigan
- Washington
- Wisconsin
- Oregon
- Florida
- TCU
After the top 5, there is a big fall off. Look at each season records and relative rankings. Michigan's consistency puts them up for top 10 consideration. SP+ at 7th just confirms that view.
December 1st, 2019 at 2:52 PM ^
Yeah... not even close unfortunately.
December 1st, 2019 at 2:42 PM ^
I agree with SP+. We're about the 7th best program in the country. Frankly, that is close to our ceiling given various factors like geography, etc. We recruit like the 7th best program in the country. Despite what some of us like to pretend we've never really been better than that in the last 75 years of Michigan football.
The problem is that we have nothing to show for it and that we should be more competitive in The Game. Those are fair criticisms. They must improve.
December 1st, 2019 at 2:53 PM ^
Then why are we never ranked in the top 7 at the end of the year?
December 1st, 2019 at 3:06 PM ^
Schedule.
Again, I'm not excusing Harbaugh. He has to improve. But we are approximately the 7th best program in the country in terms of computer rankings, wins, recruiting, and national perception over the last 5 years.
Programs I'd rank above Michigan in the Harbaugh era: Clemson, Bama, Georgia, Oklahoma, OSU.
Programs I might rank above Michigan in the Harbaugh era: LSU (overall worse, but based on this season), PSU (comparable, but conference title) and ND (worse, but they have a playoff appearance).
So yeah, somewhere in the back half of the top 10.
December 1st, 2019 at 3:18 PM ^
Wisconsin? Washington?
December 1st, 2019 at 3:28 PM ^
You could make an argument for both. Wisconsin is 2-2 against UM against that span, has a couple more wins in a much easier division, and has fewer big wins.
Washington has fewer wins in an easier conference/division but has that playoff appearance.
I'd argue that overall we've been superior. But those are comparable programs. And both have accomplished more over the Harbaugh era. I was also speaking in terms of the overall state of the program including recruiting (at which M significantly outperforms both).
December 1st, 2019 at 6:18 PM ^
Agree that M at 7th best over the last 5 years is accurate. That is what five years of 73% win rate gets you.
Disagree on the ceiling.
The right combo of...coaching staff tweaks, plus a high 4 or 5 star QB actually developing into a 'in the Heisman conversation' level guy, plus OSU coming back to earth just a tiny bit (no program keeps up a 91% win clip forever, so a small drop will eventually occur)...could push Michigan up to to the Oklahoma level. Fourth best and winning at an 84% rate.
Not saying that it will happen. But it is possible for teams in the 6-12 range to push up to the super-elite level with the right combo of factors. LSU this year is an example. Joe Burrow and a new OC made a big difference.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:19 PM ^
I agree with you. The 7th best program in the country should win a conference title and make a CFP appearance now and then. Our ceiling should include those things occasionally happening. The margins are super slim, but it can happen and eventually it should happen.
LSU was a notch below us the past 4 years. And now they're having a magical season. Agree we can do the same. Not every year, but once in awhile.
December 1st, 2019 at 6:18 PM ^
Ooops... Double post.
December 1st, 2019 at 2:47 PM ^
Isn't it funny how our S&P is always way higher than what we're actually ranked?
December 1st, 2019 at 2:53 PM ^
That's why this board clings to S&P.
December 1st, 2019 at 3:13 PM ^
SP+ isn't a media poll laced with voting bias. Football people use SP+ and the computer rankings to gauge relative strength. Here is the Massey composite where UM is #12:
https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
December 1st, 2019 at 3:20 PM ^
Media bias? We get blown out by OSU every year and lose the bowl game, there's no bias to be had there...everyone can see it with their own eyes.