Mich-OSU Common Opponent #4: Rutgers
Rutgers was the 4th common opponent Ohio State and Michigan have played to this point. The first three:
As always, the analysis is based off of Bill Connelly’s box scores:
FancyStat box score for Michigan vs Rutgers
FancyStat box score for Ohio St vs Rutgers
As expected, the Ohio St & Michigan columns are mostly green (= above average) whereas the Rutgers columns are mostly red (= smells like stinky fish). Both Ohio St & Michigan won by 5+ TDs and won the total yardage battle similarly: OSU 413-187; Mich 433-180. Both had success rates at or above 50% (OSU 53%, Mich 50%).
The differences consist of Michigan suffocating Rutgers to a whoppingly low Success Rate of only 14.6% (whereas Rutgers managed a merely below-average 34% against OSU). Also Michigan forced Rutgers to a 3-&-out 6 of 13 times to OSU’s 2 of 13 times.
But OSU was more dominant in the explosive plays category: OSU had 11 explosive plays to Rutgers’ only 1 (18.6% to 1.8%) whereas Michigan only led Rutgers by a rate of 11.3% to 8.3% (9 to 4 in raw plays). The Buckeyes scored a TD on 7 of 11 possessions (64%) while Michigan scored a TD on 6 of 14 possessions (43%). OSU also had a better total yards per play ratio (7.0 to 3.3 compared to Michigan’s 5.4 to 3.8).
RUN OFFENSE
Both Ohio St and Michigan ran the ball well against Rutgers, to no surprise. Michigan ran for 5.6 yards per carry; OSU ran for 7.7 ypc. Most of that difference was due to Miyan Williams ripping off a 70-yarder. Removing that run OSU averaged 5.7, much like Michigan. But if you remove Michigan’s longest run, their average drops to 4.8 in all other carries. Even removing the OSU punter’s 22-yard scamper that caused the scuffle between coaches, as well as the 70-yarder, OSU still averaged 5.2.
OSU had nearly indistinguishable advantages in avoiding getting stuffed (17.6% to 20.8%), rushes of 5+ yards (42% to 40%), and yards after contact per rush (5.0 to 3.1, a difference likely due in large part to the 70-yard run).
Michigan excels at volume (52 carries for 293 yards to OSU’s 33 carries for 253 yards), but I’m going to give OSU’s efficiency a very slight edge here.
Run offense against Rutgers: Very slight advantage to Ohio St
PASS OFFENSE
Both teams surprisingly did not have a lot of success passing against Rutgers. Both had only 13 completions, barely cracked 150 yards, and were entirely red in the primary passing stats.
OSU threw for only 160 yards @ 6.2 per pass attempt (includes one sack), but Michigan threw for only 140 yards @ 5.0 per pass attempt (also includes one sack). OSU had a better completion percentage (60% to 48%).
Ironically, Michigan showed more trends of passing downfield: 10.3 air yards per pass to OSU’s 8.5; Ohio State threw the ball at or behind the LOS more than Michigan (28% to 22%); and Michigan threw passes of 20+ air yards more frequently (19% to 16%). Perhaps these trends are due to Rutgers blitzing OSU a lot more frequently (50% compared to only 22% against Michigan).
Overall, kudos to Rutgers’ pass defense!
Pass offense against Rutgers: Very slight advantage to Ohio St
RUN DEFENSE
Ohio State did not allow Rutgers success running the ball: 3.2 ypc on 35 carries for 113 yards. But Michigan’s run defense was better: 1.9 ypc on 16 rushes for only 31 yards.
Rutgers was stuffed on 28% of rushes against OSU, but 42% against Michigan! Rutgers got only 1.2 yards before contact against OSU, but averaged -1.2 yards before contact against Michigan. That’s right, Rutgers averaged getting first contact more than 1 yard behind the LOS each time they ran the ball, and this is sacks-removed!
Ohio State’s run defense was pretty good. Michigan’s was better.
Run defense against Rutgers: Advantage to Michigan
PASS DEFENSE
Rutgers used Evan Simon at QB against OSU, who had 10 completions for 74 yards. Michigan faced Gavin Wimsatt who had 14 completions for 166 yards.
This is a kind of odd comparison, because Michigan’s pass defense was more volatile, hitting at both extremes. Michigan caused more havoc, forcing 3 sacks and had 3 INTs to OSU’s only one of each. However, Michigan also allowed the bigger plays. OSU allowed only one pass completion greater than 14 yards, whereas Michigan allowed three pass plays (48, 37, 28) longer than Rutgers’ long against OSU (26). And both teams blitzed Rutgers nearly the same (OSU 33% to Michigan’s 28%), but OSU got more pressure (25% to Michigan's 16%), yet Michigan came away with the sacks (9.4% to OSU’s 4.2%). It’s all kind of odd.
I guess when it comes down to it, Rutgers averaged only 3.5 yards per pass attempt against OSU compared to 4.7 against Michigan, and these numbers include Michigan’s sacks. Michigan allowed nearly 12 yards per completion (11.9), while Rutgers averaged only 7.3 yards per completion against OSU.
Side note: it’s interesting to see how Rutgers’ focus on offense was very different against these teams. Against OSU, Rutgers ran the ball on 63% of plays; against Michigan, Rutgers passed the ball on 67% of plays. Rutgers run rates in the box score against OSU are mostly yellow (run heavy) whereas against Michigan the same run rates are mostly deep in the blue (run averse).
Pass defense against Rutgers: Slight advantage to Ohio St
THE TALLY THUS FAR:
- Run offense against Iowa: Very strong advantage to Michigan
- Run offense against Penn St: Humongous, tremendous, epic, downright embarrassingly glorious advantage to Michigan
- Run offense against Mich St: Both were equally productive
- Run offense against Rutgers: Very slight advantage to Ohio St
- Pass offense against Iowa: Somewhat strong advantage to Ohio St
- Pass offense against Penn St: Somewhat strong advantage to Ohio St
- Pass offense against Mich St: Very strong advantage for Ohio St
- Pass offense against Rutgers: Very slight advantage to Ohio St
- Run defense against Iowa: Both were about equally effective
- Run defense against Penn St: Both were about equally effective
- Run defense against Mich St: Both were about equally effective
- Run defense against Rutgers: Advantage to Michigan
- Pass defense against Iowa: Strong advantage to Ohio St
- Pass defense against Penn St: Strong advantage to Michigan
- Pass defense against Mich St: Slight advantage to Ohio St
- Pass defense against Rutgers: Slight advantage to Ohio St
November 7th, 2022 at 11:06 PM ^
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November 7th, 2022 at 11:06 PM ^
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November 7th, 2022 at 11:16 PM ^
Beat Nebraska!
November 7th, 2022 at 11:28 PM ^
Love it. Thanks again, Chuck.
November 7th, 2022 at 11:38 PM ^
Considering how many of Michigan's carries were from within the 5 yard line, I think I'd call the rushing offense numbers a draw. That's a minor quibble though.
Using a scale of +1 = slight advantage, +2 = advantage, +3 = strong advantage, and +4 = epic advantage, this is what I have so far:
Rush Offense: Michigan 7, OSU 1
Pass Offense: OSU 10, Michigan 0
Run Defense: Michigan 2, OSU 0
Pass Defense: OSU 5, Michigan 3
Total: OSU 16, Michigan 12.
How that translates to on-field performance, I don't know. You won't be surprised to learn that I'm hoping for nasty weather in Columbus on November 26, though. :)
November 8th, 2022 at 8:28 AM ^
Michigan had a high number of rushes from inside the 5 because the rushes weren’t succeeding though
November 8th, 2022 at 10:59 AM ^
But it is inherently more challenging to run inside the 5 due to the higher concentration of defenders close to the line of scrimmage.
Now, maybe OSU did the same thing; I do't know. But the rest of the numbers seem about equal, so I think it's fair to call it a wash.
November 7th, 2022 at 11:42 PM ^
I'm making sure I enjoy the ride through each and every game, but I can't help but peek ahead to that game in Columbus. It's going to be an epic game and genuinely curious how these matchups are going to go.
November 8th, 2022 at 12:43 AM ^
Thanks again for the great analysis Chuck. Got a Buckeye friend who heard that JSN's dad said that he'd be back for the Michigan game. I doubt he risks potential serious injury to jeopardize a pro career, but he has been the missing ingredient for putting that passing game over the top.
November 8th, 2022 at 9:26 AM ^
I obviously don't follow OSU closely, but has JSN been practicing and is just not available come game time? I think it'd be pretty hard to come back that quickly and be expected to play at peak performance, especially in the biggest game of the year. That would be like Michigan doing the same thing with NHG.
November 8th, 2022 at 2:12 AM ^
It is so nice that even after two decades of dominating Michigan, osu fans never stopped obsessing over us. Now that we have bragging rights and an excellent team, they are really on edge. It has been more than 1,000 days since osu has won The Game. Could be hundreds more until they do it again! Day said he would hang a hundred, but Harbaugh hung a 1,000 on him instead.
November 8th, 2022 at 9:26 AM ^
Good analysis! Rutgers grad here. Regarding the lack of rushing by Rutgers that was due to the only running threat, Sam Brown, true freshman, suffered a season ending foot injury against Indiana. Apparently he's already being contacted my MSU with NIL promises. He was averaging 4 35 yds per carry, a real stud.
November 8th, 2022 at 9:39 AM ^
Don't forget (assuming you watched the game) that Corum had a 35 yarder called back. Our rushing numbers were also held down by trying to batter down brick walls on plays from the one yard line. I'd say giving Ohio State a slight advantage in this area is superficial and oriented more around the box score than game state.
Also, I'd say it's more fair to call it Strong Advantage in Run Defense. Yes, Ohio State did well in this area, but Michigan was dominant to the point it wasn't even worth trying.
On the flip side, it feels like Ohio State deserves more credit in Pass Defense. We just keep letting these explosive plays through, and that seems like it will be relevant on November 26.
November 8th, 2022 at 9:47 AM ^
Hard to compare the passing defense to RU vs Ohio St. as Rutgers was down to their 3rd string QB against Ohio State while against Michigan 4 star Freshman QB got the start. Hence, the 3 ints to start the 2nd half, but has a very strong arm.
November 8th, 2022 at 9:49 AM ^
Receivers boxing out our secondary is somewhat QB invariant. And regardless of stars, their QB showed his youth for much of that game.
November 8th, 2022 at 9:55 AM ^
That's true, but Rutgers never even attempted those deep throws earlier in the season. My daughter actually recently graduated from UM and I'm big fan of UM. I was surprised how many hits JJ took on Sat but after watching Devin Gardner MMQB yesterday he thought it was actually a good thing to get him ready for The Game. Also hate to have seen Corum take so many hits at the goal line.
November 8th, 2022 at 11:16 AM ^
42-27
November 8th, 2022 at 11:26 AM ^
If there’s so much as sprinkle of water or a fart of wind on the 26th, OSU will be tapping out half way through the 3rd. Then again if it’s sunny and 60 then we could be in for a long day. The D line needs to be in the backfield from whistle to whistle and prove that OSU is still soft in the trenches.