Mich-OSU Common Opponent #3: MSU

Let’s talk rivalry. No, not the rivalry in which Defeated with Dignity = Assault with Battery. I’m talking about the rivalry where the shenanigans happen entering the tunnel or exiting the tunnel instead of deep in the shadows of the tunnel.

MSU is the third common opponent Michigan & Ohio State have played this year, Iowa and Penn State being the previous two.

(FancyStats boxscore for Michigan vs Mich St per Bill Connelly)

(FancyStats boxscore for Ohio St vs Mich St per Bill Connelly)

Both Ohio St and Michigan dominated Sparty in total plays (OSU 74-48, Mich 78-53), total yards (OSU 614-202, Mich 443-252), and yards per play (OSU 8.3-4.2, Mich 5.7-4.8).

Michigan had a 49% Success Rate and 14% Explosive play rate against MSU (both very slightly above average). OSU had 61% Success Rate and 19% Explosive Play Rate against MSU (both well above average).

MSU’s Success Rate & Explosive Play Rate were about the same against both OSU & Michigan. Their Explosive Play Rate was just about average both times (12.5% vs OSU, 13.2% vs Mich) but their Success Rate was below average both times (33% vs OSU, 34% vs Mich).

When viewing the overall, the biggest difference between OSU’s & Michigan’s performance against MSU was (sigh, you’re thinking, not this again) red zone offense. Seven of OSU’s 10 offensive plays in the red zone were a “successful” play to Michigan’s 4 of 16 plays. OSU scored a TD in 4 of 4 red zone trips to Michigan’s 2 of 5 trips.

RUN OFFENSE

Both OSU & Michigan ran the ball well on MSU. Michigan ran for 276 yards @ 5.3 per rush; OSU ran for 241 yards @ 5.4  per rush. Neither got stuffed much (both under 10%, deep in the green) and both got 5+ yards nearly half their rushes (Mich 44%, OSU 49%).

To pick it apart any more would be unnecessarily splitting hairs.

Let’s call it a draw.

Run offense against Mich St: Both were equally productive

PASS OFFENSE

Ohio St had 373 passing yards (including sacks) against MSU to Michigan’s 167 last Saturday. Ordinarily, a difference like that is due to frequency; however, McCarthy threw only one fewer pass attempt against MSU than Stroud did (25 to 26).

The obvious reasons are completion rate (OSU 82%, Mich 58%) and yards per pass attempt (OSU 12.9, Mich 6.4). What most surprises me is that it was not due to OSU passing downfield more:

• Air yards/pass: OSU 9.5, Mich 8.6
• Passes at/behind LOS: OSU 14.3%, Mich 15.4%
• Passes 20+ air yards: OSU 7.1%, Mich 11.5% !!! (in raw numbers that comes out to twice for OSU and three times for Mich, so not that big a deal, but still a bit surprising)

OSU did suffer a sack and an INT, which Michigan suffered neither, but the productivity is still way in OSU’s favor.

Pass offense against Mich St: Very strong advantage for Ohio St

RUN DEFENSE

Virtually all of MSU’s rushing numbers against both teams are deep in the red on the box scores. 38 yards for 2.4 vs 47 yards for 2.2. Let’s slab an ‘Inspected by 12’ sticker on this one and move along.

Run defense against Mich St: Both were equally effective

PASS DEFENSE

MSU had 32 pass attempts (including sacks) against both OSU & Michigan, resulting in 5.1 ypa (vs OSU) and 6.4 ypa (vs Mich).

Michigan had two sacks and a pick, OSU had 4 sacks and a pick; although Michigan applied more pressure (46% to 27%).

MSU was a bit more productive against OSU after Thorne was removed when the game was out of hand. When Thorne was playing his average yards per dropback vs OSU was 3.6, vs Michigan it was 6.6. I’m going to give a slight edge to Ohio St.

Pass defense against Mich St: Slight advantage to Ohio St

 

THE TALLY THUS FAR:

• Run offense against Iowa: Very strong advantage to Michigan
• Run offense against Penn St: Humongous, tremendous, epic, downright embarrassingly glorious advantage to Michigan
• Run offense against Mich St: Both were equally productive

 

• Pass offense against Iowa: Somewhat strong advantage to Ohio St
• Pass offense against Penn St: Somewhat strong advantage to Ohio St
• Pass offense against Mich St: Very strong advantage for Ohio St

 

• Run defense against Iowa: Both were about equally effective
• Run defense against Penn St: Both were about equally effective
• Run defense against Mich St: Both were equally effective

 

• Pass defense against Iowa: Strong advantage to Ohio St
• Pass defense against Penn St: Strong advantage to Michigan
• Pass defense against Mich St: Slight advantage to Ohio St

 

There are 12 total games against common opponents; 9 have already been played. The remaining 3:

• Michigan @ Rutgers Nov. 5
• Ohio St vs. Indiana Nov 12
• Ohio St @ Maryland Nov 19