Mel Tucker analysis using DVOA and S&P
I wanted to see how good of a coach this dude was so I went back and looked at all the coordinator and HC jobs he has had since his first coordinator position with the Browns in 2008. I'm comparing how his units did in the year before and after, and the years during his tenure. I'm using The Football Outsiders defensive efficiency rating for the NFL jobs, and S&P ratings for the college jobs. If there is a better way to rate coach/coordinator performance, please let me know, but I think it's a pretty good way to evaluate them. The years he coached at each position are bolded. (This post was inspired by, and some of the data stolen from, a Gucci Mane comment from yesterday. Thanks, dude.)
2008 Cleveland Browns DC
- 2007: 23rd
- 2008: 20th
- 2009: 30th
Analysis: Improved a little when he got there and got much worse when he left. Net positive for him, but one year certainly isn't statistically significant to tell much of anything.
2009-2012 Jacksonville Jaguars DC
- 2008: 24th
- 2009: 28th
- 2010: 32nd (dead last)
- 2011: 5th (huge improvement!)
- 2012: 28th (woof, he sucks again)
- 2013: 28th
Analysis: 1 out of his 4 years was a top 5 defense, the other 3 were all in the bottom 5 defenses in the NFL, with one year being the dead last, worst defense in the entire league. Pretty terrible overall. Not a big change from before he got there and after he left.
2013-2014 Chicago Bears DC
- 2012: 1st (best D in NFL)
- 2013: 25th (yikes)
- 2014: 28th (double yikes)
- 2015: 31st
Analysis: Took the best D in the league and turned them into complete shit. Widely mocked for his poor playcalling and ignorance of his players' capabilities. He seemed clueless in this role. Vic Fangio took over after Tucker was fired and turned them back into an elite unit a couple years later.
2016-2018 Georgia Bulldogs DC
- 2015: 2nd
- 2016: 14th
- 2017: 12th
- 2018: 8th
- 2019: 1st
Analysis: Took an extremely talented squad that was 2nd in the nation and made them marginally worse all three years he was there. After he left, they became the best unit in the country. Props to him for not completely tanking the defense like in his last few jobs, but with the amount of talent Georgia gets, it's not that difficult of a job.
2019 Colorado HC
- 2018: 80th overall, 85th offense, 58th defense
- 2019: 81st overall, 51st offense, 105th defense
Analysis: Better offense, worse defense. Overall S&P rating went from -0.7 to -4.1, so marginally worse overall. Again, one year isn't statistically significant, but it doesn't look good for his resume.
6.7.0February 15th, 2020 at 1:42 PM ^
He’s somewhere between mediocre to bad as a DC and totally unproven as a HC. He’s also probably the best sparty could get.
February 15th, 2020 at 4:59 PM ^
I would strongly argue he is somewhere between bad to awful as a DC. At least that’s what his perception is around NFL circles.
February 15th, 2020 at 6:08 PM ^
I was giving him some credit for the decent defenses at UGA.
February 15th, 2020 at 1:44 PM ^
I like this because it’s bad.
February 15th, 2020 at 1:45 PM ^
Great analysis, thanks for this. A bit surprising he even got a HC job based on this resume, but being a coordinator at a high level long enough will get you a mid-level HC gig (which is what Colorado is). Really don't see anything in here that would make me even remotely excited as an MSU fan - guy has barely been a HC (and didn't have any success doing so) and wasn't even really an impactful coordinator.
That said - MSU was in a tough spot and was down to these types of options or an interim for a year (which isn't great). With their off the field issues they need to wait out and their awful recruiting lately, they were in for a multi-year transition period anyway so this hire makes sense. The only thing that really doesn't is the amount of money they threw at him.
February 15th, 2020 at 4:04 PM ^
MSU was in a tough spot? That's like saying the Titanic was experiencing a bit of trouble. The MSU culture is abysmal, the AD is a bureaucratic gofer, the BOT brings hightened meaning to the term corrupt hacks and the "sainted" football coach cashes a huge check and then flips the school off while walking out the door in February after saying he is staying (waffling flake?). Mel Tucker is a complete crap shoot. There is nothing in his background to indicate a likelihood of anything above mediocrity. And for that Sparty paid top dollar.
February 15th, 2020 at 1:50 PM ^
I wonder if the sparty decision makers are aware of these abysmal numbers ? It seems that they hired him just because he had some good references. I think they really fucked this one up. The guy has failed miserably half the places he has been, and been barely adequate at the other half.
February 15th, 2020 at 1:52 PM ^
Georgia's 2019 #1 defense owed a lot to lights-out recruiting on that side of the ball from the recruiting cycles the 3-4 years before that. And that's why you go out and spend the money to get a guy like Tucker. A lot of things can go into defensive rankings and it's a data point, but not the only one. Rankings don't tell you what personnel he was working with from year to year compared to before and after, for example.
I love Don Brown, but I'd rather have a 20th ranked S&P defensive unit that holds OSU to under 40 than a #1 unit that gets stripped naked because it doesn't have the elite guys to physically match up.
February 15th, 2020 at 2:16 PM ^
MSU isn’t going to recruit at UGA’s level.
February 15th, 2020 at 3:48 PM ^
True, but they do have a chip on their collective shoulders, don't rule that out!
February 15th, 2020 at 2:17 PM ^
But Georgia has, and will continue to have, lights out recruiting no matter who is the DC or assistants. Tucker doing well recruiting there means absolutely nothing since pretty much everyone kills it recruiting there.
6.7.0February 15th, 2020 at 2:40 PM ^
Yup. UGa just had the #2 class without Mel Tucker. Sparty won't recruit for shit with him there. WE have the state locked up. And how many good out of state kids went to EL when they were winning? Plus they have a bad, bad roster NOW and losing won't help them in recruiting battles.
February 15th, 2020 at 4:12 PM ^
Vince Marrow just turned Tucker down. Supposedly offered a million to move. And he didn't take it. So he can stay at noted SEC power Kentucky. Marrow recruits the Midwest and has had outstanding success in Ohio and Michigan. Knows the lay of the land. Think he knows a lost cause when he sees one?
February 15th, 2020 at 2:24 PM ^
Are you implying that MSU is going to recruit at a UGA-like level under Tucker?
February 15th, 2020 at 3:33 PM ^
No, and they don't have to. They have to get a Top 20 class consistently to be competitive. A 15-20 ranked class for MSU is as much a win for them as a top 5 class is for Georgia. UGA hadn't had a top 5 class since 2009 until they landed 247's #3 class in 2017.
February 15th, 2020 at 3:50 PM ^
And you're attributing that to Mel Tucker and not Kirby Smart?
February 15th, 2020 at 6:02 PM ^
A 15th ranked class is unheard of for MSU, so yes that would be a HUGE win. It would allow them to compete. What previously allowed MSU to compete was amazing player development and a weak B1G with Hoke/Rich Rod heading their rival team. They no longer have a weak B1G to help them, and it is yet to be seen whether Tucker can develop as well as Dantonio. My money would be NO on the Tucker being as good of a development and X's/O's coach as Dantonio.
6.7.0February 15th, 2020 at 2:14 PM ^
The timing of Mork’s “retirement” and Fickell deciding this wasn’t an ideal situation put Staee behind the 8 ball. There is so much more to the story of Mork stepping down that we are just not hearing and unfortunately we probably never will. Trying to fill a staff in the middle of February is the worst possible time. I am wondering if he hires a few filler guys for and tries to go after some bigger fish after next season.
February 15th, 2020 at 2:35 PM ^
They weren't going to recruit well for a couple years anyway. The guys they get will come because MSU is a bigger stage and better school than the MAC or Sun Belt schools that they're competing with. It will take some stability in EL before they start competing with the middle of the Big Ten for recruits again.
February 15th, 2020 at 2:43 PM ^
I actually think Tucker’s best class will be his first or maybe second. New coaches usually get a bump. It’s so important uofm continues to dominate them. MSU is never good unless there’s problems at uofm.
February 15th, 2020 at 4:17 PM ^
Tucker has to recruit at a high level RIGHT NOW. He isn't going to to be given 5 years to get the program competitive in the Big Ten East.
February 15th, 2020 at 4:32 PM ^
I don't know about that. This year is essentially a wash with the timing, and even had Dantonio stayed, the last couple years of recruiting meant 2020 and 2021 would be rough for them regardless. 2022 is really the first true class for Tucker since he's getting started on 2021 pretty late and he hasn't truly recruited the midwest in years. That means that "his kids" won't start playing until year 3 and they'll all be true frosh with garbage upperclassmen. With what he's getting paid, you gotta give him more than 3-4 years I think.
February 15th, 2020 at 3:02 PM ^
He also had a 5th year SR quarterback and one of the top WR's in CFB.
February 15th, 2020 at 3:28 PM ^
Yep, one would have expected natural improvement with Colorado's offense with a returning experienced QB and one of the best WR's in all of college football. Both actually showed regression under Tucker when looking at their stats.
6.7.0February 15th, 2020 at 3:47 PM ^
Also had KD Nixon and Texas Tech transfer Tony Brown at WR, who are no slouches. Kind of ridiculous that the offense was stuck in the 80s of SP+.
February 15th, 2020 at 4:27 PM ^
Makes this a brilliant move for Tucker. He's had a crummy first year as a HC and with his top talent leaving, it was looking like an even worse year 2, meaning he'd be back to coordinating shortly. Instead, he takes this gig, buys himself an extra couple years of a grace period and is guaranteed around 20mil. That way, if he goes back to coordinating, he's likely doing it with 5 mil extra in the bank. Smart.
February 15th, 2020 at 3:20 PM ^
user 6.7.0 checks out
February 15th, 2020 at 3:25 PM ^
I don't get it
6.7.0February 15th, 2020 at 3:28 PM ^
So he essentially was able to parlay one great season at Georgia into a head coaching gig? This is going to be a disaster for MSU. How delicious.
February 16th, 2020 at 9:07 AM ^
Under a defensive minded coach in kirby smart
February 15th, 2020 at 4:29 PM ^
I only can imagine how steamed Mork and Tressel must be... if be surprised if Tressel stays on when he knows he's more competent in the light of winning past championships.
February 15th, 2020 at 6:01 PM ^
Looks like Tressel is staying on and taking a demotion. Maybe that has more to do with the fact that there are basically no openings in college right now except Colorado.
February 16th, 2020 at 9:06 AM ^
His tenures are too short to really draw any solid conclusions. But he doesnt seem like an x's and o's genius but will probably recruit well due to his nfl background. All the kids want to go to the nfl