M Basketball: Starters v Backups
Tough to exactly predict the starting 5 but lets say it will be:
Brooks, Brown, Livers, Wagner, Davis
A backup team would then likely be: Smith, Jackson, Nunez, Johns, Dickenson
I think that "team 2" would give the starters a run for their money in an actual game and wouldn't finish last in Big10 either.
November 23rd, 2020 at 8:39 AM ^
Whoever Nunez is covering is going to go off!
November 23rd, 2020 at 9:55 AM ^
Dishing on individual players Is a bad look, though unfortunately not unique to this post. Let’s all keep it classy.
November 23rd, 2020 at 10:19 AM ^
Dishing, or dissing?
November 23rd, 2020 at 12:40 PM ^
Yeah, Nunez is terrible, unless he makes a giant leap this year, he needs to be planted on the bench and only be given garbage time minutes.
William's would be on the 2nd team, IMO.
I also think that Hunter will be starting later in the season and Davis is a better come off the bench energy and hustle guy.
November 23rd, 2020 at 1:53 PM ^
Who are you bumping from the second team to add Williams? I don't think he's playing over Brandon Johns and I don't think you want him or Johns at the 3 (outside of very weird line up situations).
November 23rd, 2020 at 5:07 PM ^
I think I mentioned Nunez in my first sentence.
November 23rd, 2020 at 8:41 AM ^
Based on last year, team 2 would have a hard time scoring. Not knowing what Smith will be in the B1G it's really hard to say. We know Nunez and Johns had a hard time with consistency and scoring and you add a transfer and 2 freshman, I think they might be in the bottom of the B1G.
November 23rd, 2020 at 8:56 AM ^
Brown gaining immediate eligibility was huge for the team in terms of defense IMO.
The 8 man rotation featuring the following players certainly would've been challenged in terms of overall agility/footspeed:
Smith
Brooks
Franz
Livers
Davis
Dickinson
Johns
Jackson
Having Brown with his solid agility/athleticism and ability to defend 2s, 3s and perhaps even 4s, gives Juwan some flexibility with lineup combinations to the extent it will allow him to put together optimal two-way combinations.
November 23rd, 2020 at 9:02 AM ^
I completely agree that Brown's versatility (2-3-4) unlocks a ton of options and gives you some immunity to injury/Covid situations. I also think we have more guys like that such as Brooks (1-2), Wagner (2-3), Livers (3-4-maybe 5?), and Johns (4-5).
I still believe that Smith is going to be better than people think and that as the only true PG on the roster will play a lot. I know his defense is going to be a mess....but he's the only proven ball handler, ball screen player, passer, and press breaker on the roster. The guy had 30% usage, 30% assist rate, top 15 national turnover rate, and history leading an offense.
November 23rd, 2020 at 9:20 AM ^
I could not agree more on Smith. People seem to have blocked entirely out of their mind Brooks performance over the last 3 years when he was in at point guard. His passing and ability to look for others when penetrating just never showed up. Really not sure why anyone ignores Martelli and continues to list Brooks as the point guard on the starting team.
November 23rd, 2020 at 9:29 AM ^
I think Franz is a guy that is going to have trouble defending legit guards if tasked with that assignment. He doesn't move well and didn't necessarily perform all that great in that role versus Wisconsin last year, to put it kindly. Small sample, but the Badgers don't really have a ton of athleticism on their roster.
I do love his defensive instincts and ability to make disruptive plays as a helpside defender with his length though.
The current roster doesn't really have a ton of options that project to be good on-ball defenders against legit guards. Zeb Jackson is a guy that has a ton of potential in that regard, but he's likely a year away from playing significant minutes. Love Eli applying backside pressure when he chases around ballscreens, but he's also limited as an on-ball defender trying to prevent dribble penetration in isolation situations (as opposed to ballscreen action).
November 23rd, 2020 at 12:20 PM ^
Agree, think Wagner is more a 3-4, although we’re stocked at the 4.
November 23rd, 2020 at 5:53 PM ^
I thought Eli had a pretty good ability to keep guards in front of him and does Brown have that ability? At least against larger guards/wings?
November 24th, 2020 at 6:29 PM ^
I thought Franz had some sneaky success on defense late in the season?
November 23rd, 2020 at 8:59 AM ^
I disagree with Ace and Brian here (though I do agree with Ace on the "closing lineup").
I think the starters SHOULD be:
Smith - Brooks - Wagner - Livers - Davis
Brown is the ideal 6th man because he can come in for anyone 1-4 and the lineup still works. I think Davis is a starter but still only plays about 15 minutes max. I think Johns will play small-ball center, but I don't agree with Ace that he's so good that he should be considered for a possible start at the 4. We all want Johns to be good and think he has the potential to be good....but his career performance has not shown he can do that consistently.
November 23rd, 2020 at 9:17 AM ^
I always made the same argument for Kawli Leonard and Lebron James to come off the bench...but nobody listened. Not sure you will have much more luck you will have with your argument that flexibility should put you on the bench.
November 23rd, 2020 at 9:35 AM ^
Personally, I always felt Brooks performed his best over the last three years when coming off the bench. With our current traffic jam of talented wing players, I am not sure that this does not remain the best strategy for this year as well.
Frankly, I see the race for 6th man of the year on the roster as a three-man competition: Brooks, Williams, and Johns. They will be part of the small ball second line that comes in depending on the competitor (with Davis getting more time off the bench where the opponent allows).
November 23rd, 2020 at 10:29 AM ^
I don't think you can bring out evidence from Brooks as a freshman into the conversation. The guy played 33 minutes per game last year as mostly a 2 and started every game. His prior two years he was an end-of-the-rotation bit player averaging less than 13 minutes per game.
Brooks is the only guy on the roster capable of guarding guys like Watts and Donsumu. He's one of only two guys who has any experience playing guard at the college level. He's a senior who has played 98 career games for Michigan. This talk of him being the sixth man or in the podcast of him not getting to 30 minutes is crazy. Whether he starts at point and they force Wagner/Brown into a shooting guard role or he starts at the 2 while Smith is the starter....it all adds up to 30+ minutes.
On a team where you have more guards - quality and quantity - I would agree that Brooks is an ideal 3rd guy who can play either position and give you hustle, defense, and shooting off the bench. On this team? He's barely leaving the court.
November 23rd, 2020 at 10:28 AM ^
You start those guys on the bench you basically resign yourself to losing the first quarter. You're talking about two 2 all-defense players. The opponent's superstar is going to have a mismatch.
November 23rd, 2020 at 9:39 AM ^
I don’t think you’ll see Smith and Davis on the floor together to often due to their defense. Plus putting Brooks into that lineup makes the entry pass to the opposing center that much easier. Brown would help in that regard. Either way I think this will be a good team and fun to watch with some lineup flexibility.
November 23rd, 2020 at 10:35 AM ^
Now that's an interesting way to look at it. While Smith is your best PG option and Davis may be the most logical starter at center this early in the season....pairing them together might not be ideal. Hmm..... That's thought provoking.
On the other hand, while you might be right from a defensive point of view (assuming Dickinson is actually better at D than Davis)... I think on offense it might be the opposite. When Davis is on the floor he's going to run ball screens and look for dump offs on drives - that favors Smith. When Dickinson is on the floor we might play through the post more to take advantage of his size, skill, and passing (check out Dickinson's passing highlights on UMHoops sometimes - the video is like 10 minutes long of him making great passes). In that case, it favors Brooks feeding the post and then Dickinson kicking to open guys.
November 23rd, 2020 at 2:32 PM ^
I’m a big fan of Dickinson and think his passing ability is going to be a game changer. With our schedule he will get some time to develop but we are really going to need him that last month.
November 24th, 2020 at 6:31 PM ^
I am guessing Dickinson is starting as the season goes on. Unless Davis really pours it on. He made a big move last season but Dickinson’s ceiling seems 7’1”
November 23rd, 2020 at 9:31 AM ^
Brooks as the starting PG?
Not saying it won't happen but I'd like to see him as the first guard off the bench and not our primary ball handler.
November 23rd, 2020 at 10:44 AM ^
Again - that would be Brooks ideal role on teams where you're starting Burke/Stauskas, Walton/Levert, or Simpson/Poole in the backcourt. On this team where you have three guards on the entire roster and two of them have legit question marks (Smith is an up-transfer, Zeb has barely played in 18 months)??? Brooks has to start and has to play 30+ minutes.
You'll see Brown and Wagner play the 2 and we HOPE that Smith is good enough to play a lot of PG and that Zeb is good enough to warrant being in the rotation. Brooks is the only sure thing at either guard spot - even if he's got a low ceiling. He's starting and he's playing a lot.
November 23rd, 2020 at 10:51 AM ^
Nothing for me to disagree with. Good post.
November 23rd, 2020 at 10:19 AM ^
you must be joking. the starters would be 15+ pt favorites in a game.
November 23rd, 2020 at 10:47 AM ^
I kind of like the option of maybe Davis and Smith coming off the bench to provide that pick and roll offense as a change of pace from what a lineup with Johns or Hunter at the 5 could bring.
November 23rd, 2020 at 11:37 AM ^
Yeah, I hadn't thought of it that way exactly. But it is interesting.
If this roster existed back in JB's old West Virginia days I could see that lineup being ideal for a 1-3-1 with Smith running the baseline and Wagner up top with his long arms. (While I think we'll see some change-of-pace zones this year, I think it will be a small part of the defensive structure.)
November 23rd, 2020 at 11:32 AM ^
I wouldn't be surprised if Mike Smith and Hunter Dickinson are starters by the end of the season.
November 23rd, 2020 at 11:44 AM ^
I think that "team 2" would give the starters a run for their money in an actual game
Uhhh strongly disagree. Team 2 is almost completely unproven and only one of those guys has produced in the B1G, while Team 1 is better offensively and defensively
November 23rd, 2020 at 1:44 PM ^
You basically have a guard 3 forwards, and a center. Franz is more of a forward than a guard. He probably can't check the average 2-guard.
November 23rd, 2020 at 4:28 PM ^
An interesting game of mental gymnastics.
I agree with the starting five you have proposed. I believe Livers, Wagner. Brooks, Johns, Davis, Brown and Smith will set a very high floor for Michigan. Something tells me Brown has too much to offer to be a sixth man. These seven will set a high floor for this team and forge the time and space for the younger, less proven players to work their way into the rotation. I believe there will be several very pleasant surprises that emerge from outside those top seven...and don't be shocked if it includes Nunez-Juwan didn't keep offering him the opportunity last year for no reason.
The bottom-line good news I am predicting is that this team is going to out-perform everyone's expectations-maybe not mine. I will not be surprised if they are strong contenders for the B1G title. We will see how they come together but I expect Juwan and that stellar staff to have these guys humming right out of the gate. I hope they get to play the season.
November 23rd, 2020 at 4:53 PM ^
I think the starting lineup as it stands will be
PG: Brooks
SG: Wagner
SF: Livers
PF: Johns
C: Dickinson
Bench who will contribute:
G: Mike Smith, maybe Zeb Jackson but he's behind the 8 ball due to shoulder injury
F: Chaundee Brown (most likely 6th man who will play close to 30 min) and maybe Terrence Williams
C: Davis
There's severe lack of depth at G especially at SG to the point where Franz will play this position but lot of depth at wing so I think Juwan have flexibility to move down Johns at C, Livers at PF, Wagner at SF and Brown at SG. This might be Michigan's best lineup for short spurt in terms of 2 way ball.
November 23rd, 2020 at 8:11 PM ^
I agree with this list
November 23rd, 2020 at 9:51 PM ^
I just don't think there is enough ball handling with this lineup. Youre playing one guard and he is best suited to more of an off guard role. Two of Brooks, Smith, & Brown are going to start. While a lot of our offense will run through Wagner we don't really want to see him guarding many 2's.
I really only see two possible starting lineups to begin the year. While I think Dickinson can definitely become the starting C, he won't begin the season starting over Davis.
PG Brooks - PG Smith
SG Brown - SG Brooks
SF Wagner - SF Wagner
PF Livers - PF Livers
C Davis - C Davis
November 24th, 2020 at 12:21 PM ^
There's rumbling that Franz is slated to start at SG but his best position is at SF but due to the lack of depth at G, someone has to play SG.
November 23rd, 2020 at 7:48 PM ^
Truth is nobody knows till we see them play. What if I told you Cade would be our best quarterback!