Line Stats, OL vs. DL: When Michigan Has the Ball

This post analyzes the Line Stats provided by Football Outsiders when Michigan has the ball. A similar subsequent post will address the same stats when Ohio State has the ball.

 

Average Line Yards - Rushing yards per play attributed to the OL

Michigan offense 25th vs. Ohio State defense 32nd

Standard downs: Michigan 22nd vs. Ohio State 20th

Passing downs: Michigan 29th vs. Ohio State 60th

Michigan’s rushing yards attributed to the offensive line are not spectacular but are slightly preferred over the line yards given up by Ohio State’s defensive line. The difference in the rankings is entirely due Ohio’s State’s vulnerability against the run on passing downs.

This also reveals the elite running of Haskins & Corum. Sometimes a running back can compile big numbers because of a fantastic offensive line. In this case it appears to be the reverse; Haskins & Corum are out-performing the O-line on their way to excellence.

Michigan’s Average Line Yards on offense are trending in the right direction, mostly due to better performance running the ball on passing downs (passing downs is also OSU’s vulnerability against the run). Michigan’s line yards on standard downs after Week 9 was 2.89 and after Week 12 it’s still 2.89 (though ranking improved from 28th to 22nd); however, Michigan line yards on passing downs ranked 50th after Week 9 (3.03) and is now 29th (3.17), increasing steadily each week.

Michigan ranks 28th in the nation with 5.1 yards per rush including sacks; remove the few sacks they have given up, and their adjusted YPC is 5.4.

OSU’s defensive YPC numbers are more favorable than the Line Yards above: 13th in the nation with 3.1 YPC including sacks; 4.2 with sacks removed.

Certainly, running the ball effectively is key for Michigan to have success on Saturday. According to these numbers, they may have a bit of an edge with their run offense vs. Ohio State’s run defense…

 

Opportunity Rate - % of carries that gain 4+ yards

Michigan offense 77th vs. Ohio State defense 12th

…however, Michigan is surprisingly meh when it comes to carries of 4+ yards, whereas Ohio State is quite good at preventing rushes of 4+ yards. This is, to me, the most surprising metric in this post. Michigan attains 4+ yards on 47% of its attempts; Ohio State allows 4+ yards on 42% of its opponents attempts.

Although, this is also where Michigan’s big plays in the run game take place, and are not accounted for in this stat. Much was made on this site in recent weeks about MSU’s big-play run game. Michigan profiles somewhat similarly:

• % of carries for 4+ yards = Michigan 47% (76th); MSU 50% (46nd)
• YPC (sacks removed) = Michigan 5.4; MSU 5.7

I apologize for insulting you by comparing your team to Sparty, but the similarities are there. Neither team rushes for 4+ yards for a majority of carries yet they both rank in the top <~30 in YPC. That means: big play potential!

Therefore, according to these stats, perhaps OSU’s run defense will stop Michigan with several carries of 3 yards or less, but when Haskins/Corum breaks a few off, they will be for large chunks. Giving up rushing yards in chunks is what takes the #12 defense in Opportunity Rate and makes them 32nd in overall Average Line Yards. Multiple chunk rushing plays will happen for Michigan.

Of course, Corum presents the better big play threat and the status of his health for the game will be significant (I’m assuming Corum is playing until he’s not), but Haskins is also capable of ripping off large chunk runs, just not quite the home run threat for long distance as Corum.

The big plays will be there for the Michigan run game. The big question is ‘will they or will they not be able to chip away with 4-5 yard gains consistently in between their chunk yardage runs?’

 

Stuff Rate - % of carries by RBs stopped at or before line of scrimmage

Michigan offense 5th vs. Ohio State defense 69th

Michigan is among the best at preventing a running back from getting stuffed for no gain or TFL. Ohio State is not a defense that excels at doing that. Advantage Michigan at not getting stuffed.

But the raw numbers for this statistic aren’t really all that staggering of a difference. Michigan only gets stuffed 11.4% of RB attempts (~1 out of 9); OSU stuffs an opposing RB to no yards or TFL 17.8% of the time (~1 out of 6).

If we read between the lines of Stuff Rate & Opportunity Rate, Michigan runs for between 1-3 yards roughly 42% of the time:

• 11% = no gain or TFL
• 42% = between 1-3 yards
• 47% = 4+ yards

Ohio State’s defense similarly gives up runs of 1-3 yards roughly 40% of the time:

• 18% = no gain or TFL
• 40% = between 1-3 yards
• 42% = 4+ yards

 

Power Success Rate - % of runs on 3rd or 4th down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a 1st down or TD

Michigan offense 50th vs. Ohio State defense 23rd

Brian referred to Michigan’s relative ineffectiveness to run the ball in short yardage situations in both of his last two game articles, but they’ve actually improved recently (ranked 71st after Week 10). Michigan moves the chains (or scores) on 73% of these short-yardage opportunities; OSU only allows its opponents to convert 58% of the time.

Overall, Michigan may have a slight advantage in the trenches when running the ball according to these metrics.

 

On to the only Line Stat for passing plays…

Sack Rate – excludes garbage time

Michigan offense 3rd vs. Ohio State defense 56th

Standard downs: Michigan 16th vs. Ohio State 30th

Passing downs: Michigan 6th vs. Ohio State 57th

Prior to the PSU game, Michigan had been #1 in the nation at preventing sacks (sack rate has since increased from 1.8% to 2.4%). Despite all the starzz on OSU’s defensive front, they haven’t gotten to the quarterback an awful lot. A significant reason for this is that opponents have game-planned for quick releases. I expect Michigan to do the same.

Michigan also has the edge in the trenches when it comes to pass protection.

 

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• Michigan runs the ball for 4+ yards on a majority of carries
• Michigan converts on ~75% of their short-yardage situations
• Michigan rushes for chunk yards on passing downs

Worry if…

• Michigan gets stuffed for no gain or TFL 7+ times (based on Michigan’s average of 43 carries per game; seven stuffs equates to ~16+%)
• Michigan gets sacked twice or more (which would likely be ~5-8+% of their drop backs)