Let's Talk about TCU
Since there weren't any games on except for Army/Navy, I watched some TCU highlights and was wondering what you all thought about them.
Here's my observations:
1. WR #1 and #18 are both big elite receivers who will mix it up in the blocking game. I can easily see us giving up some 50-50 balls ala MSU.
2. RB's #33 and #3 are both very good. #3 is more of the speed back and #33 is more of the work horse, but both find the hole and follow their blocking well.
3. O-line was better than I expected for an "air raid" team. They pull two people, run duo, etc.
4. Texas got amazing pressure on them. This is the key matchup in my mind. If we can get pressure with our middling 4 man rush, we win this game.
5. DB's gave up a lot of 50-50 balls, but they looked good to me. They were there in phase a lot o the time.
6. Seemed to play a lot of 2 high zone.
7. Their DL looks good, but I think our OL can get push on them.
8. They look good in short yardage due to penetration from the 2nd line (LBs and walked up DBs).
9. I think we can run pretty consistently on them if they play 2 high against us. The 3-3-5 is not going to work against our two TE sets.
10. Duggan is a freaking hero.
I expect a close game with them scoring a lot. If we can get a lead and crucial stops, we should win handily. That offense is really balanced and Duggan is the x-factor in the run game.
What do you guys see?
December 11th, 2022 at 1:17 PM ^
1. They are a good team.
2. They won a lot of games by a touchdown or less.
December 11th, 2022 at 2:16 PM ^
Didn't they also do a lot of that damage in close games against backup QBs too?
December 11th, 2022 at 2:59 PM ^
Ok, living in Big12 country, I’ve seen 3 TCU games and about 12 Texas games this season. I am just a fan, but the Big 12 is horrible at defense. I would take their offensive stats with an enormous salt lick. We will present the best Defense they have seen is at least 2 seasons.
they will score some points, but they start just as slowly as we do in the first half. If we score 21 in the first half, this game won’t be close.
December 11th, 2022 at 4:05 PM ^
Big 12/Pac 12 defenses are the players that cant make it on offense. There is a fall off in athletic ability.
NFL
SEC
Top tier Big ten Osu/UM/Penn state, Clemson, ND
All have extremely talented players on defense. Im thinking Acc/Pac12/big ten west usually find defensive talent going the Sanristil route.
December 12th, 2022 at 11:27 AM ^
opponent offense caveats are real but the big ten west has some pretty good D's...including the 2 best D's we've faced this year
December 11th, 2022 at 6:36 PM ^
I’d probably say that the same qualifiers apply to big ten defenses given how terrible most big ten offenses are.
December 11th, 2022 at 8:28 PM ^
They are also going to easily be the second best offense we’ve seen
December 12th, 2022 at 6:56 AM ^
Probably the best. I see their offense as better than Maryland’s honestly.
December 12th, 2022 at 7:13 AM ^
I see what you did there 😂
December 11th, 2022 at 1:23 PM ^
Our defensive game plan will likely be similar to the OSU and Purdue game plans. We will probably give up a good chunk of yardage, but force field goals or 4th down tries.
December 11th, 2022 at 6:01 PM ^
I was going to say - isn’t Purdue TCU lite?
December 11th, 2022 at 6:36 PM ^
Duggan’s scramble ability worries me more than any qb we’ve faced this season. This will make it very hard to get off the field. I predict they convert a lot of 3rd and short-mediums.
Edit: I didn’t see the posts further down. Agree with their mobile qb concerns.
December 11th, 2022 at 1:24 PM ^
I see a QB that will murder you with his legs on 3rd down if you don't keep contain.
December 11th, 2022 at 1:43 PM ^
They are a good team, but this is what scares me the most. It may be left over fear from the Don Brown years but keeping containment on that QB will be key in my mind.
December 11th, 2022 at 2:47 PM ^
Being able to keep contain on a mobile QB will go a long, long way for me to truly believe Michigan has arrived. I still have nighmares of mobile QB's at OSU who could also pass.
December 11th, 2022 at 3:33 PM ^
I still have Dennis Dixon, Donovan McNabb, and Troy Smith nightmares.
December 11th, 2022 at 4:08 PM ^
That Donovan McNabb game I remember was the first time I ever turned off a Michigan game on TV at halftime - and didn't go back to watch any of it.
December 11th, 2022 at 4:55 PM ^
I was at all those games and it was excruciating.
December 11th, 2022 at 5:14 PM ^
Do you recall the game Amp Lee ran all over the field outrunning every one of our guys? LOL
I hadn't thought of that game in a long time.
December 11th, 2022 at 6:11 PM ^
...and Terrell Buckley. FSU punched us in the mouth at home. They were on another level that day.
December 11th, 2022 at 8:47 PM ^
I met my wife at a "woe is me" party the night after that game.
December 11th, 2022 at 8:16 PM ^
That game was an eye-opener. I remember Amp catching a ball in the middle of the field surrounded by Wolverines...and then my brain broke. It was like our guys decided to play slow and let the 'poor guy' score. It was an eye-opener for the coaching staff as well; after the season it seemed the team made a dedicated effort to get a little faster.
December 11th, 2022 at 8:49 PM ^
I still talk about Amp Lee.
December 11th, 2022 at 8:54 PM ^
Lloyd Carr was just so awful at game planning against mobile qbs.
December 11th, 2022 at 9:55 PM ^
You could’ve stopped at “planning”…
December 11th, 2022 at 9:00 PM ^
For all you youngsters out there, I witnessed probably the first M encounter with a running QB in 1963: Roger Staubach. He killed us with his ability to evade pressure:
"Michigan lost to Navy by a 26–13 score before a crowd of 55,877 at Michigan Stadium. Navy, led by junior quarterback Roger Staubach, was ranked No. 6 in the AP poll. Staubach broke his own Navy single-game record with 307 yards of total offense. He completed 14 of 16 passes for 237 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 70 yards and one touchdown." (from Wikipedia) I remember him completing a pass while nearly on his back. Roger Staubach was no legend, he was real!
Can you believe the crowd was so small?? Those were the pre-Canham and pre-Bo days!
December 11th, 2022 at 4:04 PM ^
If you want reassurance on this point, check out Seth's UFR for the Game. Minter knows how to scheme against Duggan and Co.
December 11th, 2022 at 4:56 PM ^
The Don Brown era? Are you like 20 years old? Mobile QB's have torched us for at least 30 years. Donovan McNabb, Dennis Dixon, Troy Smith, Jarious Jackson, to name a few. That's not even the worst part. The worst part is that, despite this tortured history, we never made mobility or QB running the slightest emphasis in our recruiting, except with RichRod, where passing wasn't a requirement. Prior to McCarthy, we had one passing QB who could kill you with his feet, for one season (Henson). In that period we also had a ton of guys who were essentially immobile, Brady, Navarre, Grbac, Collins, Speight, and Patterson, whom I wish was immobile, because he'd never run it, and would get happy feet after about 1 second. Griese could occasionally take off, but that was rare and not really a threat. Gardiner, unfortunately, was wasted with terrible coaching.
December 12th, 2022 at 8:37 AM ^
I wish I was 20...but no I am much older. Yes I remember many more times a mobile QB has done a number on us, I was just going with the most recent ones.
December 12th, 2022 at 12:04 PM ^
I see your Donovan McNabb and raise you Rickie Foggie. Probably cost Michigan a chance to play for a shared national championship in the Rose Bowl in Harbaugh's senior year (and Warde Manuel's freshman year).
December 11th, 2022 at 2:04 PM ^
In some ways, our lack of elite pash rush makes this less of an issue because our scheme isn’t dependent on pass rush going wild.
December 11th, 2022 at 1:35 PM ^
Feels like TCU is going to try to track meet Michigan - lots of no huddle offense, but using a balance of run and pass to wear down the defense. The key will be how effect Michigan's four man front will be in stopping the run, while mixing in different blitz looks to confuse Duggan and pressure him into making mistakes.
Gap integrity will be huge, given that Duggan is a big run threat and will have a lot of designed QB runs, too.
I think if Michigan can run ball-control offense that limits TCU's total possessions, they will eventually break TCU's defense in the second half and put them away.
Both teams are known as second half teams, and I think that is a testament to how punishing the offenses are. I think the better conditioned defense will make the difference in this one.
Coincidentally, TCU OC Garrett Riley (Lincoln Riley's brother) won the Broyles Award, so would love for Minter to exact some revenge in this one...
December 11th, 2022 at 2:39 PM ^
Glad you mentioned the “track meet” concept because I’ve been wondering about how the team maintains conditioning during the down period. The conditioning program has gotten a lot of positive mentions and it seems like especially the DL will need to be in peak conditioning in a track meet and to focus on containing Duggan. I’m confident that the conditioning staff know all this, but the players are probably tired and need a rest - interesting how they will balance the need to maintain conditioning vs. getting much deserved rest.
December 12th, 2022 at 11:46 AM ^
Username checks out
December 11th, 2022 at 1:44 PM ^
Duggan is going to scramble around and drive us crazy. You have to do what KSU did and make him pay. Duggan barely made it through that game.
December 11th, 2022 at 1:49 PM ^
lets not
December 11th, 2022 at 1:49 PM ^
lets not
December 11th, 2022 at 1:50 PM ^
Duggan’s ability to consistently connect on long floating passes is going to be stressful
December 11th, 2022 at 2:02 PM ^
Their NT is a true freshman who similar to graham seems wildly underrated by the recruiting services. He actually made 247 all freshman team (where they actually mention this could have easily gone to graham as well). Their offense, in some ways is harder to defend due to the versatility vs. OSU. Duggan runs both in organized and scramble fashion, frequently. They challenge a lot vertically as well. They have couple good OL pieces and good RB with an elite WR in Johnson. Will be interesting how we prep. In terms of D, other piece of note, their DB won the Thorpe award over illinois DB for best DB.
December 11th, 2022 at 4:58 PM ^
A freshman NT against Olu...hmmm
December 11th, 2022 at 2:02 PM ^
Quentin Johnson is a poor man's MHJ. He's really going to clean up if we're not careful.
One thing I've noticed from TCU is that they seem to play better when behind. All the tempo stuff is more effective against soft, prevent type coverage.
I agree that the game will once again come down to red zone defense, and I think it will be uncomfortably close, probably 28-24 M.
December 11th, 2022 at 2:12 PM ^
Not sure he is a poor man to be honest. He is same build and while not great of a route runner seems more the jump ball type. I think will Johnson draws the assignment given his size.
December 11th, 2022 at 2:07 PM ^
Minter has done good job with spying mobile qb ala Clifford.I would guess Minter emphasizes the following
1.Qb runs especially broken plays
2.50/50 balls
3.Up tempo personnel changes
Numbers 2,3 have been the weak spots at times.If we can run for over 200 I will feel really good.BTW I coached one of the starting cb for TCU,but I’m all for the good guys in this game.
December 11th, 2022 at 2:13 PM ^
My one nitpick with this solid analysis is that I'd say our pass rush is better than "middling." We got spoiled last year (and in many years under Harbaugh) by having at least one guy screaming around the edge almost immediately on basically every passing play. You don't need to have that in order to have a decent pass rush. We did a nice job this year squeezing the pocket and hurrying up QBs. Teams tended to prioritize getting the ball out fast because they knew pressure would come more often than not. I don't remember anyone other than Stroud consistently enjoying a clean pocket, and even he faced mounting pressure as we steadily wore down their OL over the course of the game. All of which is to say, could be a long night for TCU if they're not one of the best pass pro teams we've faced
December 11th, 2022 at 4:07 PM ^
IMO, it's recency bias because Morris missed the last two games. With him back (and Will Johnson's arrival), I think Duggan will have a rough day.
December 12th, 2022 at 12:00 AM ^
Do we know with certainty that Morris will be healthy and playing?
December 12th, 2022 at 12:21 PM ^
Was there ever an official announcement about his injury? I would guess it was a high ankle sprain, which would put a full recovery at about 4-6 weeks with no setbacks/reinjuries.
December 12th, 2022 at 1:41 PM ^
No, I'm extrapolating from Brian's comment in his B1GCG post:
Mike Morris was out but on the sideline and clearly not worried about anything in his lower body.
December 12th, 2022 at 2:08 PM ^
If it is a high ankle sprain, they're a pain to get over. From personal experience, had one (playing OL) senior year of HS first game of the year. Sat out week 2, played the next few weeks heavily taped/braced but reaggravated in about week 6 (and multiple smaller reaggravations in practice leading up to that). Had I sat out for a few weeks like Morris, it probably would've healed in a few weeks, but kept getting tweaked. Since he's sat for a few weeks, plus 4 weeks until the playoffs, he should be 100% (again assuming it's a high ankle).
December 11th, 2022 at 2:15 PM ^
We seem to be the most challenged by teams that play with place and spread the ball around via a mobile QB. So I expect TCU to pose a strong challenge. We need to get to their QB occasionally and clamp down in the red zone. And I expect our offense to put up points on that porous D. Michigan 41-28.