Latest Lunardi Bracket / Rooting Guide (Go Blue, Beat State edition)
Hey all! People seem to be enjoying these posts, so I'll keep them coming! Obviously, we have a big game against Sparty tonight. That game will tell us a lot about our plans for March. The road becomes REALLY challenging if we lose tonight. Even after a kind of 'meh' night last night for the Bubble, Michigan starts right where they left off: the first team that avoids Dayton (5th team from dropping off the bracket).
There's actually a ton of games tonight! Here's our rooting guide:
- We're rooting for Vandy to beat Florida. Barring a DEEEP run in the SEC tournament, a loss to Vandy would just about shut the door for the Gators.
- Dayton is in a very similar situation that Florida is. If they lose to Richmond, they likely have to win the A-10. We're rooting for Richmond tonight.
- This one is more for our SOS but Buffalo has a great chance for a solid win over Toledo tonight. Toledo is 23-6 and in the top 80 in the Net rankings. We want that Buffalo win to look as good as possible.
- Really interesting matchup in the A-10 later tonight between the Bonnies and VCU. The loser of this game is basically eliminated from any bubble discussions but St. Bonaventure seems the closest to the field, so we're rooting for the VCU rams tonight.
- We're also rooting for Louisville to beat Virginia Tech tonight. A loss to a bad Louisville team would be deadly to VT.
- We're also rooting for Arizona to beat USC. Again, this is just for our strength of schedule, being that we got shellacked by Arizona. Any win by them helps.
- Lastly, Go Boilers! Fuck Wisconsin!
Let's get that win tonight, gents! Go Blue!
Also for those that are curious, here is Joe's latest bracket. He has us as an 11 seed against LSU in San Diego, with a potential 2nd round match-up between Texas Tech and New Mexico State.
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-projecting-2022-march-madness-men-field
UM is the type of team that fought its way to a tourney selection after a tough schedule and underwhelming play at times. Then once in the tourney makes a deep run. I can absolutely see a scenario like this. Not saying it will but it could happen.
I have a bad feeling about Iowa coming to town Thursday. They are rolling right now. We could very well take care of business as we did down here in Iowa City...but the personal confidence level isn't high, especially if the pressure is much higher after losing tonight. Just like the recent Purdue and Rutgers games, the biggest game of the season is now tonight. Win the game and going a doable 1-1 the next few days still may have us sitting okay.
Nervous already.
Beat Sparty
The bracket matrix has has VCU (53rd in NET) much higher than the Bonnies (79th in NET) and I trust the crowd more than Lunardi so I think we want St Bonaventure.
I'll say it.
Lunardi is one dude. Use something like bracket matrix and come up with a more consensus view of the field and rooting interest.
Last four in:
Indiana, SMU, BYU, VCU
You can see by the last two non-bold teams in the 12 seed slots (may be 11 seed depending on mid-major conference tournaments) plus the first two in the "other at-large" group below the field.
Currently there the last four byes are:
Memphis, Michigan, UNC, Miami
You can pick these out as the four teams directly above two non-bold teams at the bottom of the field in the 11 seed range (could move to 10-12 seed depending on things).
First four out:
Rutgers, Florida, Oregon, UAB
These are the 3rd through 6th listed in the "other at larges" section below the field.
Next four out:
Dayton, Virginia Tech, St. Bonaventure, Belmont
These are the 7-10th listed below those in the first four out category.
You can also see who to worry about if they lose their conference championship tournament. E.g., if Loyola-Chicago loses the Missouri Valley, they are currently around the last four in. If Houston loses in the American tournament, they'll be a worry since that'd lock in (perhaps) Memphis and move the bubble since Memphis is barely in as it is. If Murray State loses the Ohio Valley, that'll put in (most likely) Belmont, and then Murray State would potentially get an at-large. If Davidson loses the A10, then worry about VCU, Dayton, or St. Bonaventure becoming a bolded team in the 12-seed range and bumping the bubble line up to the 11 seed games.
It just takes some poking around.
TLDR:
Root for Michigan to win as many games as possible (duh).
Root for mid major favorites that are above the bubble line: Murray State, Houston, Davidson, Loyola-Chicago so their counter parts (otherwise below or on the bubble) don't add more teams to the field and move the bubble up to the 11th seed.
Root against teams near Michigan on the bubble.
Edit: after re-looking, it appears that they've got an extra 11 seed and 12 seed listed, so there is some shifting around from my instructions above, which I leave as an exercise for the board.
Appreciate the comments around the Bonnies - VCU game. Kind of agree with the comments around perhaps we're wanting VCU. That one's a tough one for sure.
Seeing the words "bad Louisville team" warms my heart.
It's hard to root for Louisville. Ever.
Maizanator and YakAttack, are you thinking about THIS? Trey Burke's block of Peyton Siva's shot was NOT a foul!
Seeing the words "bad Louisville team" warms my heart.
Apparently strippers love the bad boy types.
For those following Joe Lunardi (ranked 55th on The Bracket Project’s list of “eminent bracketologists”), there are lots of other amateur “bracketologists” to consider.
Because I’m very old and not well skilled in algorithms and predictability, when I consider “bracketology”, first I look at the Bracket Matrix. In the latest version, updated on February 28, Michigan is the last 11-seed, according to the consensus average among the 99 of the 119 bracketologists who’ve posed their predictions.
Next, I consider the highly ranked bracketologists based on their past performance. As of March 1, the top guy, Crazy Sports Dude, has Michigan and Memphis meeting in a First Four game for the 12-seed to play Texas in the Midwest Region. I look at the brackets posted by Lunardi and CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm (the 100th-ranked bracketologist now has Michigan as the First Team Out of the field) only out of curiosity.
Then I check on some of the other highly ranked bracketologists to see whether their predictions are more current than Lunardi and Palm.
Well done and much appreciated, True Blue 9. I think that even Larry David should thank you for your service.
Root for Nebraska over OSU because obviously but after their recent 23 point win over PSU they're within striking distance of top 135 which would make that road game a Q2.