JJ's Great Leap, Measured in QBR
How great is JJ McCarthy this year, so far?
Historically great.
His 2023 QBR would currently rank the 5th best all time since ESPN began tracking.
Though the ESPN metric is a bit of a mystery, its results give a pretty good measure of QB greatness. The rest of that top 10:
1. Mac Jones, 2020
2. Kyler Murray, 2018
3. Joe Burrow, 2019
4. Tua Tagovailoa, 2019
5. JJ!!
6. Russell Wilson, 2011
7. Andrew Luck, 2010
8. Tua Tagovailoa, 2018
9. Baker Mayfield, 2019
10. Justin Fields, 2019
It's a great list.
And this despite his fielding a 10.6(!) QBR vs BGSU. His 99.2 against Nebraska vaulted him into first place for this season so far. He does enough with his legs to get him past Penix. In effect, it's currently JJ and then the pack.
It's been a while since we were treated to historically great quarterbacking. Let's enjoy this special year.
October 2nd, 2023 at 8:46 AM ^
Man, Harbaugh used to be a special brand of insane. I mean, he still is, but he's definitely changed.
October 2nd, 2023 at 1:42 PM ^
I do miss old Harbaugh but I also really like winning so I'll take current Harbaugh.
October 2nd, 2023 at 8:50 AM ^
Hopefully it continues throughout the season. He has played great so far outside of a few throws. We've played complete cupcakes so far though so that has to be taken into account. If he maintains it on the backend of the season hopefully we have that title at the end.
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:02 AM ^
Well, everyone on that list — and every QB ever on every P5 team — also plays cupcakes every year. So that is not necessarily the explanation…
… but sample size and partial v complete schedule is. If the data for that list is for a full year (except for 2023 QBs), then indeed JJ is bouyed by having played only 5 teams and at least 3 are defensive sieves. Whereas the other 9 on that list include games against major programs.
October 2nd, 2023 at 10:31 AM ^
More cupcakes comin'. Go to a PSU that the media will continue to laud despite their obvious weaknesses and get a sound win there. . . beat OSU. Get this and that 30/under 10 record the next two weeks!
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:26 AM ^
The first eight on that list (not including JJ) - is quite solid. The way that Fields play translated to success in the NFL is truly noteworthy.
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:37 AM ^
JJ mocked going 5 in the draft to the Vikings by PFF today. I was listening to sports radio on the drive and they asked callers for their biggest Michigan concern. One caller said JJ...
October 2nd, 2023 at 10:18 AM ^
Good news for the Patriots, need ALL of them. Of course Belichick will draft a S from Saginaw Valley or a G from Ferris.
October 2nd, 2023 at 10:46 AM ^
Is he still trying to prove he can win without Brady? 😜
October 2nd, 2023 at 11:30 AM ^
Alright, I've had enough as an Eagles fan.
I NEED the Patriots and Cowboys to stop drafting Wolverines. This is becoming absurd.
October 2nd, 2023 at 12:09 PM ^
The eagles seem to only draft uga bulldogs nowadays. Their defense is basically the 2021 uga starting defense.
October 2nd, 2023 at 11:36 AM ^
How classic would it be the Bears drafting JJ and waiving Fields, and JJ go on to lead a resurgence of the Bears to a respectable season...
I think that would be great.
October 2nd, 2023 at 11:57 AM ^
Oh God! Hope that does not happen. I don't want to root against him when he plays Lions I am hoping for Patriots or Lions or Ravens to pick him up and he turns into the next TB12. Wouldn't that be fun? Of course, this is first week of October and there is a long way to go. But if we are dreaming, why not this.
October 2nd, 2023 at 1:07 PM ^
Strong point. Like I said below...I'm somewhat new to this Lions being competitive thing. I didn't consider that scenario.
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:41 PM ^
Yesterday, watching the 49ers, I couldn't help but wonder how amazing JJ would look in a system like that. Brock Purdy only had 21 attempts yesterday (20/21!!) and they absolutely dominated Arizona.
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:38 AM ^
Not OT since we're discussing JJ here but I thought it was so cool to hear him tell everyone "thank you so much" after his running TD. He appreciates what his teammates do and that's why everyone loves him. He's a special player and humble young man.
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:58 AM ^
JJ's "post game" interview / comments on Saturday (after the Nebraska game) reflected who he is - and, what this team is about. Preparation for the game - credit to everyone involved - the OL - the RB's - the receiving corps - the defense - etc. He'll have an opportunity to enter the NFL Draft at the end of the season - and, I'm just wondering how nice it would be if he elected to stay for one more season.
Go Blue!
October 2nd, 2023 at 10:00 AM ^
His demeanor vs the OSU coach is just night and day.
I'll see myself out...
October 2nd, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^
I have no idea if he’s genuinely “humble” or not; most star athletes like him probably aren’t. But he seems like a great teammate, a blast to play with. I loved him running onto the field to celebrate after that huge special teams hit in garbage time. He loves playing and makes a point to keep doing so, and to celebrate with his teammates.
That’s stuff that doesn’t show up in recruiting ratings or in QBR, but hard not to love what it means for the team.
October 2nd, 2023 at 11:11 AM ^
It's a very fine line between "humble", "confident", "over-confident", and "self-absorbed". I am sure he is confident in his own abilities, but that also doesn't mean he can't be humble. He certainly doesn't seem to give off Johnny Manziel type vibes.
October 2nd, 2023 at 1:19 PM ^
You go right ahead and enjoy that half-empty glass.
October 2nd, 2023 at 10:17 AM ^
With pick # (?) the New England Patriots select "JJ McCarthy, QB Michigan". Need a Michigan QB to pick up the baton from the previous Michigan QB to lead team back.
October 2nd, 2023 at 12:22 PM ^
I would rather not have to route for Belichick again. Will cheer on JJ wherever he ends up.
October 2nd, 2023 at 1:08 PM ^
At the current rate, BB might not be making the pick!
October 2nd, 2023 at 10:36 AM ^
which team would you most like to see JJ drafted by?
Outside of the Lions, seeing him in SF with that squad would be incredible.
October 2nd, 2023 at 10:53 AM ^
I think his style would fit in very well with what the Lions new culture has become. However, that would mean them moving away from Goff (which I would consider a mistake at this point) or separating with Bridgewater which would not break my heart.
Not sure what other needs they would want to address before adding another QB though. I'm somewhat new to this competitive Lions thing...
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:42 PM ^
Didn't they already draft Hendon Hooker to be their QB of the future type?
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:49 PM ^
That's what I thought, but he isn't on the depth chart. So with he was cut or is on the practice team.
October 2nd, 2023 at 11:33 AM ^
The Jets. I want JJ away from the NFC (I'm an Eagles fan), and the Jets are my best friend's team, and therefore my 2nd team.
I'd love to have him on the Eagles, but he'd have to drop multiple rounds for that to have any shot of happening.
October 2nd, 2023 at 12:10 PM ^
I'm still puzzled by the Commanders not going for the win in regulation, but I generally like the Eagles so I'll take it.
October 2nd, 2023 at 7:59 PM ^
It seemed like everybody was confused. But I guess thank goodness for small blessings? 4-0.
October 2nd, 2023 at 1:58 PM ^
I think he'd be a perfect fit for the Steelers in culture, with his experience QB'ing a run-first, somewhat conservative offense, and with his combination of arm talent and mobility. Pickett isn't looking like a franchise QB but would be a good backup to JJ.
October 2nd, 2023 at 10:38 AM ^
To me, I'm glad to see Roman Wilson a part of this because that is the leap to me.
October 2nd, 2023 at 12:23 PM ^
What's interesting is the huge difference between this rating, and the consensus leaders for this season's Heisman. JJ is not even being mentioned in the others category.
October 2nd, 2023 at 12:32 PM ^
It's hard to get a mention when the other qbs are getting 50 throws a game.
It's a shame too, what JJ does for this team can't be measured in Heisman votes.
October 2nd, 2023 at 1:05 PM ^
And he shouldn't be. The volume is just not there. He's only averaging 21 passes per game
Penix, Williams, and Gabriel all have comparable ratings and between 50% and 100% more passing yards
If he was throwing 30x a game he would absolutely be mentioned though
October 2nd, 2023 at 1:01 PM ^
We've played 3 cupcakes and a pretty bad Nebraska team, and JJ looked shaky against mighty Bowling Green. I've seen no 'leap' so far. But I've also not seen regression so there's that. If he can show up against PSU/OSU and the bowl game that is the entire story. One great thing is his receivers are mostly catching everything thrown their way which helps a lot.
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:43 PM ^
No leap? You realize half the throws he makes can’t be replicated by the majority of nfl quarterbacks? Try hauling ass to your left and make a throw like he did to Wilson the other day. Line up the starting qbs in the nfl and a handful make that throw.
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:50 PM ^
Yep, some of those throws are [chef's kiss].
October 2nd, 2023 at 4:31 PM ^
I don't think you get it. The throws he is making cannot be done in a t-shirt and shorts against no defense by most other QB's. The fact that he is throwing these on-target lasers, half while running parrellel to the line of scrimmage while an actual defense is covering/chasing him is, well, crazy. He is really, really good and if it were not for Caleb Williams would probably be the top QB in the nation this year.
October 3rd, 2023 at 1:34 AM ^
No leap?
If you excise the BGSU game -- and I do -- he is performing at a higher level than last year. This is noteworthy considering he doesn't have quite the running game (yet) that last year featured AND he doesn't have quite the same level OL (yet) that last year featured.
And that's not even taking into consideration the throws he is making. The one rolling left to Wilson in the endzone was not just an NFL throw, it was a throw that many starting NFL QBs can't make. That's where JJ is at.
[EDITED: Midukman got to this second point first, which I just saw...apologies for the redundancy]
October 2nd, 2023 at 4:28 PM ^
He was 3rd all time and first this year before the BGSU game.
October 2nd, 2023 at 7:04 PM ^
Worth sharing where "Big 18" QBs rank in the top 50:
1. JJ McCarthy (Michigan)
3. Michael Penix (Washington)
5. Kaleb Williams (USC)
6. Kyle McCord (OSU)
16. Bo Nix (Oregon)
26. Taulia Tagovailoa (Maryland)
27. Gavin Wimstatt (Rutgers)
29. Drew Allar (PSU)
49. Athan Kaliakmanis (Minny)
October 2nd, 2023 at 8:28 PM ^
In my opinion the best QB metrics are DVAR and DVOA from Football Outsiders, and WPA and EPA from Brian Burke. Don't think those can be found for college QBs, so...I guess I posted this for no reason. /shrug
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:55 PM ^
"That had a vapor trail on it!" Awesome! :)