Jerry Palm-UM vs. WV in a First Four Matchup
February 28th, 2023 at 10:39 AM ^
Conflicted on this. Jerry Palm is notoriously terrible so I want to dismiss this out of hand. On the other hand he is always been really harsh toward Michigan so this is kind of... flattering?
I'm just happy they are in this conversation at this point.
February 28th, 2023 at 10:39 AM ^
That's good news. I still don't get why Wisconsin keeps getting slotted in as well but if UM keeps winning they should be able to sneak in.
February 28th, 2023 at 10:46 AM ^
Because they have a 6-6 Quad 1 and a 4-5 Quad 2 record. Michigan has a 3-10 Quad 1 record, a 6-1 Quad 2 record, and a quad 4 loss.
February 28th, 2023 at 11:21 AM ^
I should be clearer - I understand on paper why they're hanging around but to NET they're 72nd, KenPom they're 69th, and Wisconsin they're 67th. And while it's cool they are 6-6 in Quad 1 games only 2 of those wins have come this year and they're 2 5-point wins on the road against OSU and PSU. My point is that the only real point in their favor right now is they beat Marquette and USC back in late November/early December, and yet despite being 6-10 in 2023 they have a stickiness to the bracket that just doesn't seem right to me.
February 28th, 2023 at 1:38 PM ^
Quad 1 record, especially their volume of wins matters >>>> advanced metrics. Which is a good thing. Wins should matter.
And again, it just does not matter much when the games happened. The committee is looking at the full season. This is a bit of a change in the last 5-10 years and they did it because teams playing in bad conferences looked like they were "hot" at the end of the year by winning 8 or 9 or 10 of their last 10 games and teams in difficult conferences or with unbalanced schedules looked worse but they shouldn't be punished for having backloaded schedules.
So that's the pretty clear cut criteria. Wisconsin has a good resume.
February 28th, 2023 at 6:46 PM ^
Sure, but if you look at the full season Wisconsin is far behind the other bubble teams per NET and basically every other metric. That's, again, what I don't get - if you go by NET, which is all about flattening a season and giving you credit for wins regardless of when they happened - they're behind 10 spots behind OSU, a team that is 12-17 and has 1 Quad 1 win. Apparently those 6 Quad 1 wins really don't mean a lot to this "objective" system because if they did they'd be a hell of a lot closer up the rankings than they are. My guess is that some of it has to do with efficiency numbers; they're 153rd in offensive efficiency and 21st in defense. And they play in a ton of close games - 10-7 in 2-score/OT games on the year.
So yeah, they're the one team who's resume I don't get. They're going to finish, at best, .500 in the conference and most likely 9-11. They haven't won 2 games in a row in months. They're not liked by any of the metric systems. And in Q1+2 games they're 10-11; Michigan is 9-11 over that same range. I just don't get how they seem stuck in at least the play-in bracket while teams with equal-or-better resumes are scraping at the bottom.
February 28th, 2023 at 11:22 AM ^
So BASICALLY if you have a young team with 4 new starters that stumbles in November and December before finally going on a tear and beating a bunch of good teams...
it doesn't matter SORRY YOU LOST 3 MONTHS AGO. I DON'T CARE IF YOU ARE PLAYING LIKE A TOP TWENTY-FIVE TEAM NOW. TOO LATE!
It's all such stupid bullshit. There are not 40 teams better than Michigan right now.
February 28th, 2023 at 11:48 AM ^
Its absolutely not bullshit. Why should one month matter more than another for entry into a tournament based on entire seasons? Entry into the NCAA tournament isn't about who is playing the best the last month, its about who had the best year. You want to be playing well at the end if you want to win the tournament, but entry should be about the entire years results
February 28th, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^
Entry into the NCAA tournament isn't about who is playing the best the last month, its about who had the best year.
Except that conferences award their automatic bids to teams that win a weekend tournament.
The whole season matters, sure, but the last 10 games should be a factor (as it was until recently).
February 28th, 2023 at 12:12 PM ^
I think it matters. If you reverse how Michigan's season has gone and put the first month last I don't think they would even be close to the bubble. However, closing strong, alone, will not get you in.
February 28th, 2023 at 12:18 PM ^
Not arguing that it should be a non-factor when humans are deciding, but name a sport that takes it into consideration when trying to reach the playoffs.
I don't care if it were the first game of the year, you just can't wipe the stank off the CMU loss.
February 28th, 2023 at 12:21 PM ^
There aren't many other sports that have a selection committee to decide these things. Most just use a straight mathematical formula.
But American sports in general are all about the idea that you can redeem yourself at the end of the season, as long as you've passed some minimum threshold. We don't like the European formula of just giving the title to the team with the best record.
February 28th, 2023 at 1:15 PM ^
But that is the existence of the playoffs, not the criteria for entry into the playoffs. Entry into MLB/NFL/NHL/NBA etc. playoffs is all about total season record. A win in the first month counts the same as a win in the last month for getting into the playoffs. The existence of the playoff itself is giving a team that gets in a chance to do something
February 28th, 2023 at 1:12 PM ^
That is a conference decision, not the NCAA tournament selection decision. Conferences can award their automatic bid to a regular season champ like the ivy league does. Its a completely irrelevant data point.
February 28th, 2023 at 12:36 PM ^
Any Big Ten team with 12 conference wins should AUTOMATICALLY be in the top 68.
Full stop.
February 28th, 2023 at 1:41 PM ^
And Michigan will be in if they win 12 regular season conference games. So there won't be anything to complain about if they get there.
February 28th, 2023 at 5:15 PM ^
Number of conference wins doesn't hold that much weight anymore because the schedules are unbalanced. In this particular case, I agree that we should be in with 12 conference wins. But it's not because of the number per se, it's because it would entail 3 quality road wins in the conference plus some solid home wins.
February 28th, 2023 at 4:30 PM ^
The goal of the NCAA tournament is to crown a champion who's the best in the country, but by its very nature it is time-specific. If the NCAA wanted to "officially" crown a champion for the regular season then they could create a system (such as NET) that allotted points and divined the best team in the country. Instead, they piece together a single-loss tournament with 68 teams where the champion only has to play 6-7 games against disparate squads across the quality spectrum.
So sure, in theory the NCAA tournament should reward teams for a full season of play but flattening a season down so that every game, played at every time and in every context, is treated absolutely the same doesn't get you anywhere closer to an accurate championship field. Hell, look no further than last season when UNC was 3 points away from winning the championship despite entering the tournament in the 30s for the whole season. At best UNC was considered the 18th-best team in the country per the polls and per the fancy stats never even in the top-20 until the tournament. And yet, because they started to play well to end the year they were able to ride that to a title appearance.
I get a sense you don't think this team deserves to be in the tournament, and that's totally a valid opinion to have. They scuttled badly for most of the year and a good 10-game run shouldn't completely ignore that. But it also feels a bit like you're looking for reasons to ding UM's resume while ignoring those same blemishes on other teams' ledgers. I could easily make an argument for a half dozen bubble teams yea or nay on their inclusion in the tournament and that's part of the game now. But if the goal of the NCAA tournament is to crown the best team in college basketball right now, which is all it can reasonably be expected to accomplish, recent performance matters more than what a team did 3 months ago.
February 28th, 2023 at 11:56 AM ^
Not even going to try and hide that I'm in favor of whatever gets Michigan into the dance. If we were in Wisconsins shoes, I'd argue that 6-6 against good teams is better than 3-10. But because we are not, I'm going to agree that we are currently the better team and that means more than what a team did 3 months ago.
February 28th, 2023 at 12:00 PM ^
Yeah, that's the part I don't really get (and why I'm a bit dubious of some of these projections). Absolutely a full season of work should be considered but beyond even the timeliness of wins and losses just looking at the results ignores context. For example, MSU scored a big-time win over Kentucky to start the year; it's either their 2nd or 3rd-biggest win all year per the various ranking systems. It was also the first game Oscar Tshiebwe played after coming back from knee surgery; he played 34 minutes in 2 OT but also fouled and had a season-high 5 TOs and clearly was still coming back a bit. MSU continues to get a ton of credit for that win in these systems despite more recently playing like a .500 team since January 1st (8-7). Chances are if those two teams played again UK would be a bit better.
What continues to haunt UM was that loss to CMU, and there's not enough lipstick in the world to dress up that pig. But it is weird to see that anchor be held over UM's neck while ignoring what seems to be a much-improving team while teams that are playing objectively worse for month-long stretches are being gussied up because they were once not ass in November.
February 28th, 2023 at 12:06 PM ^
I think it's the combination of a bad Q1 record (3-10) and the CMU loss. Having just one or the other wouldn't be that big a deal, but having both is an issue.
Fortunately we have chances to improve that Q1 record this week and in the BTT.
February 28th, 2023 at 12:39 PM ^
The real crime is why UNC(19-11) is not in but Wisconsin(16-12) is...
NET - UNC 45, WIS 72
Kenpom- UNC 43, WIS 69
February 28th, 2023 at 10:47 AM ^
If UM wins out, they will walk in...no sneaking needed
February 28th, 2023 at 11:09 AM ^
+1 Insightful
February 28th, 2023 at 11:39 AM ^
haloscan ftw
February 28th, 2023 at 10:40 AM ^
Well. If this holds and we beat WV in the first four match-up, there is a potential to play TCU in the first round. Yikes!
February 28th, 2023 at 10:45 AM ^
We would actually play Duke as Jerry has us in the East where Duke is the 6 seed. TCU is the 6 seed in the South.
February 28th, 2023 at 10:53 AM ^
Ah yes! Good catch. I stand corrected.
February 28th, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^
Lunardi still has us the 4th team out. I am concerned with the teams above us in the 4 as well.
February 28th, 2023 at 11:48 AM ^
Basically, Michigan is about as bubbly as a bubble team can get, with most projections having Michigan as a first 4 out, and some being last 4 in. The CMU game is such an albatross...
The teams all around us in these projections (ASU, UNC, WVU, even Wisco, etc.) are all in the same position. Most have Wisco in on the strength of their Q1 record, but at some point, you have to think that their record since the new year (6-10) will have to start weighing them down. They have Purdue and Minny, so figure they go 1-1.
February 28th, 2023 at 10:52 AM ^
Just keep winning.
February 28th, 2023 at 11:49 AM ^
Obligatory
February 28th, 2023 at 11:49 AM ^
And twice because we have 2 regular season games left.
February 28th, 2023 at 10:59 AM ^
In the words of noted Sports Figure Al Davis: Just Win, Baby!
February 28th, 2023 at 11:06 AM ^
Our our own Mitch McGary: WIN THE GAME!
February 28th, 2023 at 11:00 AM ^
A small aside - Indiana hosts Iowa tonight (Tuesday) - while Michigan plays at Illinois on Thursday.
What's the significance of this? Indiana will host Michigan on Sunday - which means - not only will it be Senior Day in Bloomington, but the Hoosiers will also have two extra days to prepare for the Wolverines visit.
As others have noted - just win the game - one at a time.
FWIW - I'm very "ok" with Michigan playing in Dayton - as long as they make the Dance, I really don't care "how" they do it, or "where" they are seeded.
Go Blue!
February 28th, 2023 at 11:30 AM ^
Have to be eyeing the Illinois game. Not just because it is the next one, but clearly the more likely road win opportunity. Assembly Hall on senior day with a hot Indiana team is a tall task. If they can split these last two and get at least one in the BIG Tournament they are in the conversation.
Really hope the mid-major conference tourneys go chalk this week.
February 28th, 2023 at 12:08 PM ^
Indiana hasn't been all that hot. Before the PU game they were beaten soundly in East Lansing. But they are a very talented team.
February 28th, 2023 at 11:19 AM ^
Can we not post individual bracket updates? Especially ones from guys like Jerry Palm and Lunardi who are objectively pretty bad at this? We know we are on the bubble. We generally know which other teams are on the bubble. Lets focus on those games and then the bracket matrix
February 28th, 2023 at 11:44 AM ^
I don't think Juwan is going to put me in, so I may be alright checking out some early bracketology.
February 28th, 2023 at 11:50 AM ^
Its not about "looking ahead" its about not cluttering the board with threads for every bracket. The message board design is already dumb enough, it gets made worse when there are new threads every five minutes
February 28th, 2023 at 11:56 AM ^
At least they're relevant to M athletics. Hate to see the Risk or travel agent discussion get bumped though. Might have to cancel my subscription.
February 28th, 2023 at 11:48 AM ^
I really enjoy all the bracket talk the 2 weeks leading up to selection Sunday. If you don't like it don't click the link!
February 28th, 2023 at 5:19 PM ^
Yeah, it's pretty bizarre to open up a thread just to ask for people not to post similar threads. As you said, it's easy enough to just scroll past something if you don't want to read it. Pretty weird how people get so uptight about this stuff.
February 28th, 2023 at 11:52 AM ^
Can we not post individual bracket updates? Especially ones from guys like Jerry Palm and Lunardi who are objectively pretty bad at this?
- mgoblog poster ak47
Not everybody’s the perfect person in the world.
- clearly some genius person in the world
February 28th, 2023 at 12:01 PM ^
Any news seems to be worthy news, even if does come from an overinflated talking head.
February 28th, 2023 at 11:19 AM ^
Im not buying these sites. We beat WI and there average seed ranking goes up on bracketmatrix. WTF!
I dont care what their Quad 1 record is. They havent won b2b games this calendar year.
February 28th, 2023 at 11:54 AM ^
UW Before Jan 1: 10-2
UW After Jan 1: 6-10
February 28th, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^
Michigan before Jan 1 - 7-5, .583
Michigan after Dec 21 - 10-7, .588
They're nothing if not consistent. The 6-2 recent stretch is eye-catching, though.
February 28th, 2023 at 6:25 PM ^
Wisconsin average seed ranking has NOT gone up on bracketmatrix -
They have not been on the outside of the bubble even once to date, and are now the very last team in - just barely over ASU (64 to 48), and dropping.
This is the first bracket iteration where WI is on < 2/3 of the brackets (64/99), and continues to plummet. BM is a lagging indicator, and MI continues to climb - first data point was Sunday, 6 brackets yesterday, 8 today...
The tide is turning. Just win.