Iowa Snowflakes: The Offense
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:37 PM ^
They won.
But yuck. Buy the defense (and S. Morgan) dinner.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:38 PM ^
3 Peat!
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:38 PM ^
They’ve gotta get the line sorted, McCarthy healthy, and start mixing it up more.
The offense of the past month won’t cut it in a few weeks from now.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:39 PM ^
Good thing there’s time between now and the playoff. Not sure I’d be too confident if the game were next week.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
I think our best hopes ride on a fairly winnable first playoff game, and on having game-planned well for a final.
December 3rd, 2023 at 7:16 AM ^
We get that a lot, “Against ___ this won’t work” or “In ______ this won’t work!” But if the offense put up 59 points, we’d have heard, “Doesn’t matter because you can’t take points with you to the playoff!”
Watching last night, I found myself thinking that I trust Michigan’s coaches entirely to develop players. I’m not as high on them scheming their offensive guys open in a rock fight like that. But against OSU they did. They scored on what, 7 of 8 possessions against one of the best defenses in the country? I liked the conversion where they brought Wilson in motion then ran him on a complex route back outside for the first down. Bet (hope) they’d have done that more had they needed to.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:07 AM ^
For whatever reason for the longest time our receivers seem to be able to get separation against very talented OSU corners but struggle to do so against other good defenses. Having a true elite #1 wr really has seemed to be one of the big keys to unlocking these modern beast mode defenses. Georgia’s all time defense got wrecked by JaMo and OSU was giving them all they could handle before MHJ went down. Some of this fronts, Michigans now included you can’t expect to just line up and run them over
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
Is Wilson injured? Johnson was a happy surprise, but Wilson was conspicuously MIA? I know he was injured some against MD.
December 3rd, 2023 at 12:16 PM ^
That’s not the issue. We know they can (usually) methodically move down the field in 2-6 yard increments against even the best defenses. The issue is when we go up against a high scoring (or any non-B1G) opponent and need to score 45 points, and have big plays of 20+ yards, in order to win. Can our play callers and team do that against a good defense? That is less than clear. Hence the concern.
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:21 PM ^
If our defense continues to be as good as it has been, we won't need to score 45 to win. Nobody has scored more than 24 on us this year.
Yes, it would be nice to think that we could reliably, at will, put up 50 points a game. But grinding the clock, possessing the ball, keeping it out of the opponent's offense's hands, and then eventually scoring make it way less likely that the opponent can run up a big score. They can't score as long as we have the ball.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:38 PM ^
We didn’t bring an offense, out of respect to Iowa
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:46 PM ^
I was about to throw out some comments and then I saw this. I accept your post as the only true explanation for today. Haha!
December 3rd, 2023 at 3:15 AM ^
The M offense also isn’t getting enough credit for shutting out the Iowa defense. Hell of shutout for JJ and the crew. Not today, Phil Parker
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:25 AM ^
I found this kind of interesting. Norm and Phil Parker are not related. Phil Parker was Norm Parker’s successor as defensive coordinator at Iowa. Both were/are almost oddly extremely loyal to Iowa and great at there jobs. Norm Parker also coached Phil Parker at Michigan State.
Iowa pays Phil 1.4 mil a year so he is getting very good money for a DC. I’m somewhat surprised MSU hasn’t attempted to open up the checkbook to bring him home.
December 3rd, 2023 at 2:29 PM ^
1.4 Million also goes a helluva long way in Iowa City. Lot longer than in say, SoCal or other destinations that may want to go after him. Honestly the amazing thing is finding two great coaches back to back who have no interest in a head coaching job. Imagine us assuming we’d have Moore and Minter for a decade…
December 3rd, 2023 at 3:15 PM ^
Funny because I just read the same thing today about Phil Parker. Norm was my Dad's college roommate at Eastern. They both played on what my Dad described as probably the works football team in the nation.
December 3rd, 2023 at 12:31 AM ^
To be fair. That was the second most points scored on Iowa all year.
December 3rd, 2023 at 2:16 AM ^
Also, the most times Iowa’s been scored upon (six).
December 3rd, 2023 at 7:17 AM ^
Those are kinda cool stats.
How much better do things look if two normally reliable TEs don’t have high profile, uncharacteristic drops?
December 3rd, 2023 at 8:06 AM ^
Also if Drake doesn't get hurt on the first drive. I fully believe Harbaugh goes for it on 4th and 1 there, and possibly turns that into a TD drive and wears out Iowa's defense a little more. Taking the points was a wise move facing the prospect of putting in a backup C for 4th and 1, and the FG turned out to be the winning points.
But I think Alex's column was right in that if those 3 things had gone the other way, Michigan could have scored well into the 30s.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^
But to be fair, the team that scored more has an atrocious offense. That doesn’t make me feel any better.
December 3rd, 2023 at 7:53 AM ^
Jim is, at heart, cut from the same cloth as Kirk: an offense is a liability. Only use as much of it as you need. And Michigan didn't need much to beat Iowa, but those liabilities looked large
December 3rd, 2023 at 8:09 AM ^
I disagree. That's only how they played Iowa and for good reason. Iowa stays in games through turnovers and fluky plays on special teams. A vanilla and safe offense once you're up 2 possessions is EXACTLY how you beat Iowa.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:14 AM ^
So you’re agreeing
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:39 PM ^
Offense needs to be at least 2006 level in terms of the forward pass.
Edwards is going the Nico Collins route.
Hopefully FSU is #4 bc it ain’t going to be pretty against an Alabama defense. (Bowl game record nightmares commence)
I refuse to believe Iowa is that good on defense. They play the west and outside of OSU and maybe PSU this conference are a bunch of tin cans when it comes to talent on offense.
Will obviously celebrate the 3-peat (when was the last time that happened!?!) but ugh… wouldn’t be Michigan without some consternation.
December 3rd, 2023 at 12:42 AM ^
Alabama has given up 20+ points in 7 of their last 8 games.
December 3rd, 2023 at 12:44 AM ^
Saban and Alabama athletes w a month prep will chew up Michigan’s current offense if Iowa can on a week’s notice.
December 3rd, 2023 at 12:59 AM ^
Iowa knew they'd be here with a few weeks heads up though as well.
December 3rd, 2023 at 8:38 AM ^
Make sure you bet all yor money on that then.
December 3rd, 2023 at 2:42 AM ^
I looked it up this week, the average Iowa opponent this year before this week is ranked 89th in SP+ offense. They basically played the equivalent of Nebraska every week. They are a great defense, elite even but feels like if Michigan is the number 1 team in the nation we should have been able to do more offensively. But then again last week we played the number 2 defense and scored 30 points so maybe it was an off week/we stayed vanilla on offense once it was clear that Iowa wasn’t going to score any points today.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:19 AM ^
Your last sentence is correct - don’t overthink it
December 3rd, 2023 at 7:55 AM ^
I agree that Iowa’s defense is not nearly as good as the metrics make it out to be. We need serious improvement on offense
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:57 AM ^
I agree. Their defense is decent but they didn’t play anyone good. They gave up more points to a PSU offense that is atrocious. Our OL has been getting blown up for the last 4 weeks to the point where we are apparently having to adjust playcalling because of it. I refuse to believe every defense is that great or that we are that bad on the OL. If we don’t run more play action and take more shots down the field, we are going to be 0-3 in the playoffs.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:39 PM ^
Iowa defense is legit, and the offense was able to get it done.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:39 PM ^
Not saying anything negative tonight.
December 3rd, 2023 at 2:09 AM ^
I saw most of the game and I'll give the offence credit for 6 points of their own making.
That's all I got to say about that.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:40 PM ^
Worried about OL in the playoffs. Losing Zinter sucks on several levels
I don't think we brought out a big bag of tricks tonight though
December 3rd, 2023 at 12:10 AM ^
Clearly did not.
I’d like to be able to move the ball with base stuff, but it was visible from the outset that Michigan was treating this like a standard B1G game rather than a play-for-your-life game. Targets to O’Leary? Carries for Kalel Mullings? We all know that wasn’t happening against Penn State or OSU.
It was disappointing to see the sacks and not get more drives put together. But it also seems clear to me that Michigan preps stuff to use “if needed” and those needs never appeared today. We have no idea what Michigan will do if they trail in the second half because it never happens, but I’d expect there’s some “break glass in case of emergency” stuff ready to go.
Would I have liked a better performance today? Yes. But it’s fine.
December 3rd, 2023 at 12:21 AM ^
We saw what Michigan can do when trailing against TCU.
December 3rd, 2023 at 12:38 AM ^
I actually would have liked to see more carries to Mullings today. If we’re going to run base stuff, make the defense tackle a 240lb dude that can also make you miss.
December 3rd, 2023 at 12:41 AM ^
Stephen, what is the basis of your assumption that Michigan has a "break glass in case of emergency" set that would work against an Iowa-level defense? Do you have an example to cite where something of that nature has occurred?
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:09 AM ^
Sure. Michigan has, at various times, used plays such as halfback passes, flea flickers, fake punts, and the like to move the football and get big plays. Michigan has had running backs pass the ball in each of the last two Ohio State games, including a particularly creative one with Kalel Mullings in 2022. Additionally, other, somewhat less dramatic-looking but still impressive plays have gotten good use. An example is the AJ Barner completion on the play where Zinter got hurt, a very cool play where Donovan Edwards drew off two defenders on a wheel route and Barner did a blocking delay before drifting out and gaining a big pickup that set up Corum's TD last week.
If anything, I think Michigan's offense was too dependent on that stuff against Ohio State, and it produced a lot of the yardage the offense gained. But they *did* use it and *did* win.
Did they need any of that against Iowa?
...no. No they did not.
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:18 AM ^
Oh, you're talking about trick plays. You post on here all the time about how Michigan is saving things for future opponents. Didn't realize you were referring to trick plays.
Michigan isn't going to beat Alabama or outgun Washington or Texas because of a trick play.
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:25 AM ^
I mean, it looks like you just hand-waved away some specific citations of non-trick plays (do you think a TE delay route is a trick play? Did you read that part?), but you're also kinda misrepresenting my position here. It is inarguable that Michigan did not use everything it was capable against Penn State, for example, because I think most people would agree that Michigan was capable of throwing passes and with the exception of a couple of plays that didn't count, chose not to do so. It did not *need* to do so, and the team wound up winning just fine anyway. Thus, there is more available if needed.
The passing game wasn't super-dynamic against Iowa, a team that doesn't give up big plays to anybody, but it also didn't need to be, and contra some complainers, *did* use some plays that "schemed guys open" for varying levels of success.
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:35 AM ^
I think bringing up individual plays to try and prove a point is mostly just disproving your point. Good offenses move the ball against good defenses without wowing the viewers, whether via trick play or some unique scheme. They do it because the players and the play design are consistently better than the defense, which shouldn't be some unsolvable conundrum against a defense that is undoubtedly good but that, nevertheless, plays a bunch of guys that Michigan's coaches didn't consider good enough for a scholarship offer.
When it comes down to it, this team couldn't gain more than 20-30 yards at a time tonight and has been incapable of creating a truly explosive play for the past month. I really doubt the coaches were hiding a bunch of killer play calls that would solve those problems considering a conference title and a playoff spot were on the line.
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:44 AM ^
You asked for examples, I gave them, you hand-waved them away. At no point have I claimed that Michigan is secretly hiding the fact that they're actually one of the top 5 offenses in the country; I'm saying that they are playing well enough to win, and that the coaches are making decisions based upon game state that are rational.
I've even discussed, at a number of different times, the issue that I think is the biggest problem: The OL, and specifically pass blocking. I even brought it up before the Penn State game, and it has certainly been visible since then. The fact is that the pass protection is the big question mark between this team and a national championship. No QB, not even Tom Brady, can dominate a game if under relentless pass rush assault.
The coaches seem to know this as well, and they call games with that in mind. If they need to, they can call things more aggressively; we have literally seen aggressive passing from JJ this year on plenty of occasions. But so far, playing with leads, the coaches haven't done so, and the results have been wins. If Michigan builds a multi-score lead in the second half of a playoff game, I expect a similar strategic choice. But if they're trailing and need scores, I suspect things change a bit. And if they trail by multiple scores, they will get more aggressive by necessity.
I wish it weren't that way, but it is, and Michigan has won three B1G titles with some variation of this braintrust making these choices.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:27 AM ^
You are way too negative here. It was 26-0 while playing conservative. The worry is the OL, but the offense can do some things - see Ohio St
December 3rd, 2023 at 8:12 AM ^
Early in the game, Edwards moved out behind wide receivers. JJ threw to the TE. There are a variety of plays for Edwards there that Michigan didn't run later in the game because they didn't need them.
December 3rd, 2023 at 12:48 AM ^
You nailed it. It was a vanilla game plan although I am not sure JJ was running up 23. Hopefully the line is back healthy and figure out a good rotation without Zinter. And JJ needs to be healthy. Good news is almost all the skill players are healthy
December 3rd, 2023 at 7:15 AM ^
Of the three RBs, I thought Mullings was the most effective in limited attempts. I agree with everything else.