How many points will Speed in Space produce in 2019
Last year's team produced 442 over 12 regular season games, including a 3 game stretch where it averaged 50 points per game. Ton of offensive firepower, and a new philosophy.
505 seems like a reasonable guess, with games like MTSU, Rutgers, and Illinois yielding potential for 60+ point outbursts
506.5. Book it.
At least one more than our opponent every game, I hope.
At least 6.
ALL THE POINTS ARE US
On a semi-serious note though am I the only one who has flashbacks to the summer of 2014 whenever a Gattis thread is started? I cant help but shudder when I think about how excited we were to pry Doug Nussmeier away from Alabama and how stupid we thought Sabin was for letting him walk. We had unbridled enthusiasm hope for an exciting future working with an OC who understood "manball" and how to make the concepts work.
I know....I know....different team, different coaches but man you talk about PTSD - I'm there.
What are you talking about? We avenged the loss to App State!
This isn't unreasonable. There are some apparently genuine differences in style and content, which leave me hopeful; Nuss was considered a salve for Borges, who was the scapegoat, and was thought to be a great option for running Hoke/Brandon's preferred straight-ahead running style. Unfortunately, the OL was still bad and Hoke was still incompetent.
This year we have a HC who, while not perfect, is proven to be capable of much better than Hoke. And, importantly, we have a line coach who is proven. Warinner's line won OSU a national title by going straight through Alabama, he's not a paper tiger.
Also, the ceiling in 2014 was 9-3--losses to the major rivals, winning all the games Michigan was capable of. Nobody seriously thought Michigan had a good chance to win the B1G that year, and the floor was of course bottomless. This year things are a bit better.
That said, I'm still a bit skeptical. The tackle situation is still a questionmark. The defense may be a worry; Brown is very good, but his system has been exposed* and he needs to significantly adapt to take the team to the next level. And he's doing it with some holes in the front 7.
Some of it is good old-fashioned BPONE. I think Michigan has the potential to be great this year, using its elite receiver talent to demolish the B1G. But it also has the potential to be inconsistent and to lose a couple of games that make us tear our hair out. And the pressure is high, with the favorable home schedule--finish another season with a thud and we're looking at serious ticket sales issues next year and more "narrative" about how the Harbaugh regime is collapsing and another back-breaking dip in recruiting.
*exposed doesn't mean it's bad or even weak, the way some people would suggest. The way people treated him as a fraud last year was garbage. However, schemes can have weak points. One game is one game, but several games is a trend, and when Michigan faced spread-pass teams with real talent at the skill positions and quality run attacks, the man-heavy scheme didn't fare well.
A good analogue would be the way that Chip Kelly's spread scheme, which electrified the football world for five years, was neutered by teams with dominant DLs that squeezed the zone running lanes that were responsible for much of the big-play capability of the Kelly offense. Auburn, LSU, Ohio State... Oregon was a different team against those DLs, and they didn't have the passing game to adapt. It doesn't mean it's a bad scheme or that Kelly was a bad coach, but there was a weakness that was revealed and needed to be dealt with.
Brown's weakness is that he has few zone counters that his players aren't great at executing due to the man emphasis, and that they are vanilla enough that a team knows exactly how to deal with them when they pop up. Hopefully that changes this year.
I get the shellshock. I think it’s a slightly different situation in that Saban was reportedly enraged when Gattis chose to move on, whereas Saban more or less told Nuss to go find other work. Gattis is a head and shoulders better recruiter and has a refreshingly modern take on offense, whereas Nuss was very much still in Hoke’s comfort zone. I applaud Harbaugh to have the balls to see where he was deficient and try his best to find someone that could patch that hole.
Oh yeah, Nuss was going to save our offense from what Borges had us at. Even though with all of Borges’ shortcomings he did call some incredible games in 2013 (ND and OSU).
The 2014 offense however was a disaster. Summed up by a shut out vs ND, M00N, and Nuss celebrating after scoring vs MSU. Talent was low. Funchess was broken, OL was bad (aside from Glasgow), our best RB didn’t come out til week 10.
Talent is much better this year, I don’t expect a repeat.
Biggest difference there is Saban was willing to let Nuss walk. Meanwhile Saban was noticeably upset when Gattis left. Reportedly getting into a screaming fit when he found out.
I'm the only one here who thinks we'll take a step backwards before going forwards, so 400 points.
I mentioned in a comment below that the 2016 team put up 524, including the bowl game. If this new offense is truly a 'speed in space' explosive offense then they need to be in that 40 ppg range for me to consider it a success. That said...
If you mean you can see them struggling the first few games and then once it clicks they ramp up and start putting up 40+ per game or so, I can see that leading to a less than 500 total point output but a high-scoring one by the latter part of the season. And I'd be happy with that.
To beat OSU they need to put up 40+ with 'ease'.
Uh, if our offense struggles the first few games, i.e., against MTSU and Army, we are in deep shit. I expect them to come out firing against inferior defenses that haven't seen our new O scheme.
Yeah, I see a lot more 3-and-outs than chunk plays and quick scores.
But since this is the Price is Right, I'll say 401.
In that case, I'll say 402.
Well im going for the win
So ill take 1
Well, fuck
The real question is, how many games into the season before we start hearing for speed in space to work Gattis will need his type of player and not Harbaugh’s pro style recruits?
The season will start like this...
UM will come out firing in week one and everyone will be excited for space offense
Week two UM will struggle a bit against Army but comes out with a similar Air Force style win
Go into the bye week to regroup then come out flat and struggle at Wisconsin
It depends. How many numbers are there?
551
Michigan's offense will finally be doing what it should've been doing years ago.
The defense will step back and final scores will look more like Big 12 games than Big 10 games. But that's ok, because Michigan will win all of them. Except in the CFP Semifinals.
I bet the defense is still top 15.
They had 524 in 2016 (13 games). If they're not in that range this year I'd see it as a disappointment. That was good for 40 ppg and I think that's a reasonable target.
More than last year. That's all I got.
Minus the RB position, you've got a boatload of experience all across the board for this offense. I'm sure there will be growing pains, but the pieces are in place for this team to have its best offense since.....wow, I don't know when? 2006?
562.
I estimate roughly 10 more points a game.
If Iowa castoff Rudock and, a favorite of mine but no superstar, Deveon Smith can put up 40 per game I don’t see why this team can’t do the same. Losing Pep and putting a guy that has a Midas touch with offenses in charge can not be a negative in any way, shape, or form. Even if he is just “solid” with this talent that should be a huge step up.
15x40= 600 or bust!
Save this post to laugh hysterically at me or to wonder at my magic 8ball like abilities!
Losing Pep
That's the big one. Gattis is TBD, but not having Pep is going to be like taking off your training wheels for the first time.
But will you eat a lemon if wrong...?
More than every opponent in every game, except O$U. They'll lose that one.
I always felt our offensive production wasn’t the big issue. ~35 points per game isn’t bad. Our S&P ranking was 25 nationally, again not bad. My biggest issue was the speed at which we played, the horrible clock management and indecisiveness, and the lack of counterpunches. The team just looked confused and helpless when thing A didn’t work. Especially on the road.
and a general lack of "flow" with the offense. I know the fancy stats liked them, but to the eye test, it just looked predictable and clunky.
Are you talking points per game, or are you talking MGoPoints per postings about games in general?
Those are two different numbers now that MGoPoints are working properly for most everyone...
Well, if it's MGoPoints he's referring to, I think it'll put me well in excess of 100,000, at which point I will be finally able to cash them in at the MGoStore, right?
Ackkkkkshuallyyyy, if you give the offense the XPs for touchdowns, they actually only averaged 44.67 through that stretch you’re referencing, not 50. The defense and punt return produced 16 points against SMU (Metellus pick six) and Nebraska (safety and DPJ punt return TD).
I think it is realistic that we improve our points per game from last year’s 36.8, to 42ish? So, I’ll say 500. That would be a big improvement, but we left points on the table against ND, SMU, MSU, Indiana, and others this year.
47ppg and d will allow 12
I actually anticipate that the #SiS will create more big plays early, allow the defense to play more aggressive with the lead, which will help the create more turnovers and plays in the backfield.
I'm thinking the defense adds more points this year than the offense.
I dont know that we can really answer this right now. Will Harbaugh really cede control to Gattis or will he still invoke himself into it? If Harbaugh is involved on every third or fourth down then I'd say the offense will be a lot like last year. If we truly open it up then I'd say 500+ points this year.
It's how the points are accrued that makes a big difference. 2018 Michigan was frustrating, even when things were going really well, because the offense was extremely "meh" early in games and took time to put those points up. It's great to have big fourth quarters, and Michigan did; it's also great to have big first quarters, putting games away early. Michigan generally didn't.
In fact, Michigan was TERRIBLE on opening drives, scoring a TD maybe once or twice all year (don't have the numbers in front of me). The willingness to insouciantly throw early drives in the trash was a source of moderate frustration when we were winning and a source of intense rage when we weren't.
When run/pass ratio came up prior to the Gattis hire, people (including me) would occasionally reference the similarity of Michigan's run/pass ratio to that of teams like Alabama. Thing is, they got there in completely different ways--Michigan consistently running on early downs to set up later drives in tight games, contrasted with Bama lighting teams up early and then sitting on leads with the running game for most of the second half in blowouts.
Hopefully a similar situation here. The total points might not jump much (a bit, I hope, but not much) but the WAY Michigan gets there should be different. Blow teams out early, relax the rest of the way.
I like your write-up here. I would add one particular instance of maximum frustration: when Michigan would drive the ball with about 8 plays to the opp 40~ and find themselves with 3rd and medium yardage. All's going nicely up until this point and then Bench Mason comes in and plunges into the teeth of the DL... twice... and Michigan's defense trots onto the field.
My guess is 574, based on assuming they'll average 11 more points a game with three main contributing factors for increased points, 1-more experience and better overall talent on offense, 2- faster pace resulting in more possessions each game, 3- slightly worse defense providing increased motivation to score
Ugh just realized I've predicted an average of 48 points per game! These predictions are going to be strongly dependent on if Rutgers allows 80some points, dropping my guess to 504 and down voting my original post
48 on average seems a bit high, but it might be possible once the team gets comfortable with the new scheme. Hopefully we put 100 on Rutgers.
Gattis is going to take the B10 and CFP by storm- no one will be ready for speed in space - sit back and get ready for an offensive showcase this year.
Somewhere between 593 and 162. (Ohio State and Rutgers last year, respectively.) I'm going to put the over at 510.
I don't know if the number of points scored is going to change much. Hopefully the new offense gives them a chance to win games when the defense isn't great though. Previously our production on offense was too tied to our production on defense.
Several. At least.
1.01 points per minute, surpassing Yost's point-a-minute teams.
Gattis I’m not worried about, Don Brown on the other hand........
More concerned with the margin of victory.
Hope we bat 400.