How do you think Michigan would have done against Georgia had it beat TCU?
OT season yada yada yada . . .
I just watched a quick five-minute recap of Georgia's domination over TCU (here). Cripes. Georgia might as well have been playing a MAC team.
THIS TCU team put upon 51 points on Michigan (an forced 3 turnovers)?? THIS Georgia team barely got by Ohio State (who got pantsed by Michigan at home)?? Was this all about matchups, or just the randomness that is college football?
Regardless, had Michigan pulled off the comeback against TCU, what do you think the final score would have been against Georgia? I honestly have no idea anymore.
Moody would have made the field goal.
If we came out ready to run JJ 10-12 times, I think we would have made it close, and had a chance. If we had come out against UGA like we did against OSU and TCU, and only went to the QB run in the 2nd half, then I see us playing catch-up from ~7-14 back from the first quarter onward.
IMO, this is correct. The offensive game plan wasn't good and it took way too long to adjust. I'm still disappointed that our coaches didn't seem to scout TCU nearly as well as the MgoBlog staff did. So, yes, if we had the same plan (and stupid trick plays at the goalline) UGA beats us.
And more play-action.
Better than TCU did.
Not as well as Ohio State. Better than TCU.
this is the correct answer (IMO)
I agree, but this offers a huge variable.
easier to be right when you play it safe :)
Sorry to say, but the moment was too big for JJ against TCU and I don’t see it being different against UGA. I’m sure he will be better this year, but he just wasn’t ready for it last year. He had both great and terrible throws in the semi final. Can win without great qb play, as Georgia showed twice, but you will lose when your qb isn’t ready.
JJ was tight, but he didn't make the atrocious play calls! As soon as they botched that opening drive I felt a disappointing day coming on. If the defense played Georgia like they did TCU we would have gotten another whooping from the Bulldogs. I am beginning to think Harbaugh prepares for bowl games like his mentor Bo. Don't get me wrong, I love Harbaugh as our coach and stuck by him during the Covid year, even deleting a couple of friends who were pushing for him to be fired, but he needs to step up for the end games like he did for TTDS.
We definitely looked past TCU.
Georgia is likely the most talented in college football, but OSU's roster is as talented as anyone in the country.
Based on our TCU game (which the country watched, sure we look like we would have gotten smacked by UGA), but a) the law of transferrence doesn't apply to football (just psychotherapy/medicine) and b) I think our coaches put together a gameplan that gives us a puncher's chance, especially with JJ, as it was the first game put on his shoulders after Corum goes down.
OSU had the best offense in the country, Stroud was the #2 overall NFL Draft pick, and OSU had what 3? 4? future 1st-Round wide-receivers on their roster?
Georgia was so talented sure, but OSU was up 11pts (and driving to another TD were it not for a timeout-interrupted converted 4th down puntfake that was/would have been converted—the timeout was late imo) with 8 minutes left in the 4th quarter.
Georgia could have easily lost, and we could have easily won, resulting in a rematch against OSU. But could we have beat Georgia last year, absolutely, they were very good, but they weren't gods.
All the fans have PTSD from '21, but the '22 team wasn't nearly as dominant defensively. And JJ has proved that he can gunsling against anyone (~50pts), he just needs to watch it with the pick-6's and we need deeper talent at RB and a little more in-game run adjustment.
It was a surprisingly disappointing end to a great season, but the team was improved from the year before, and looks like it will be even better this year.
Georgia is likely the most talented in college football, but OSU's roster is as talented as anyone in the country
Wait, Georgia is the most talented. But, Ohio State is as talented as anyone in the country. That means Ohio State is as talented as Georgia which means that Georgia is not the most talented.
This. Georgia looked complacent against OSU. They wouldn't have made that mistake against us, as they didn't against TCU.
Georgia came out to defend OSU because they had the pieces to give Georgia a game. Georgia would have came out to beat the billy hell out of us and probably would have. Harbaugh would have spent the 1st qtr having a dick swinging contest against Kirby and then spent the next 3 realizing his was smaller. This year is anyone’s game.
Well said 👍
We would have won or we would have lost. Okay? Now, why don't we focus our energies on the season ahead.
no
because no amount of focusing on anything past, present, or future by anyone on this blog has ever made an outcome of a Michigan game any different, despite trying for decades (some of us are old)
Are you sure this is true? I thought the box scores for a couple of games have had asterisks placed in them. One, going back - was the Charles White phantom touchdown in the Rose Bowl - and, after the TCU game - the play that was over-ruled from the booth which took away the TD.
Oh - maybe you're correct...
to be fair there are some ex-players on this blog and those guys might have affected the game one way or the other based on focus or lack there of ….
i never downvote comments, and won't do so here.
but this one seems like a fun off-season / OT / thought experiment topic to me.
and "focusing our energies" isn't, you know, a real thing, unless you're shea patterson's burner account.
Don't worry, I downvoted it for you.
Probably a competitive game that UGA pulls away a bit in the second half of. Something like 38-28/41-27. TCU was doomed against UGA from the start because of the massive disadvantage in the trenches and that forced them to play reckless on defense, something UGA punished from the start and Michigan only did when the boat was taking on water. That advantage in the trenches also exists against Michigan but not to the same degree.
EDIT: anyone saying we should look ahead or focus on TCU or whatever, chill, its July, just partake in the thought exercise or don't
Poorly.
As the great Bill Parcell's once said "you are what your record says you are" and our record says Jimmy, as much as I love him, absolutely SUCKS at bowl game preparation. He's 1-6 at Michigan and lost his last six in a row. He's lost as favorite and he's gotten his ass kicked as an underdog.
There's more than a small part of me that wonders how much of this is attributed to him "learning" bowl prep under Bo who, as some of you might remember, was also a great regular season coach who struggled terribly in bowl matchups.
I think he needs to "Biff Poggi" his bowl prep and try something completely different because what he has been doing sure as shit isnt working.
It's hard to disagree with this take and those of us who grew up watching Michigan lose bowl games under Bo know the pain all too well. I think Georgia would have beaten us soundly if we had beaten TCU; maybe not as soundly as after the 2021 season but still...by at least 14 points.
I'm hopeful that in the same way Harbaugh figured out how to beat OSU he'll learn to manage bowl/CFP prep more effectively. At least we know that despite his Bo like stubbornness he IS capable of change!
This is terrifying to contemplate. Did Bo and now Jimmy spend their bowl practices repping the same stuff, and just believing, old, old, school, that if they run their offense perfectly, no one can stop them? I'm afraid you might be right.
The first week of bowl practice should just be UM statistics students (or 14 year old Madden champs) submitting new plays that will attack the opponents' weaknesses.
ya know just cause Parcells said something doesn't mean it's true.
If only the record counts, Harbaugh should have been fired after losing 5 straight (really 6 straight because COVID year would have been a brain bashing) to OSU.
Instead, we kept him, and look at what happened.
I think it's fine to be bottom line, but there can be nuance in analysis.
Then help me see the nuance you're looking at that I'm missing in his last six games:
- 2016: 33-32 loss to Florida State Seminoles in Orange Bowl (favorite)
- 2017: 26-19 loss to South Carolina Gamecocks in Outback Bowl (favorite)
- 2018: 41-15 loss to Florida Gators in Peach Bowl (underdog)
- 2019: 35-16 loss to Alabama Crimson Tide in Citrus Bowl (underdog)
- 2021: 34-11 loss to Georgia Bulldogs in Orange Bowl (underdog)
- 2022: 51-45 loss to TCU in Fiesta Bowl (favorite)
Aggregate total of 138 to 220 or an average of 23-37 with three games as a favorite seems pretty bad to me, just like our record against OSU was BEFORE Jim acknowledged change needed to be made and he made it. Not sure he's done the same excercise yet as it pertains to bowl prep.
I was whatever about the bowl record until TCU (some tough matchups, hangovers from missing out on team goals, opt outs…I had excuses) but I think Jim must handle the schedule differently or something.
They always talk about how many reps young guys get in bowl prep. Makes sense to get everyone healthy but I wonder if it’s too much of a lean into developing the whole roster vs game specific stuff. Just a hypothesis because I have no idea!
Michigan does generally suck in bowls - true. Excluding the past 2 years, I think PART (not all) of it is Michigan tends to get "over seeded" in bowl pecking order due to brand and eyeballs the school brings to a bowl. I do see they were favorites in some of those games but over the course of last 25-30 years I do think they get an inherent advantage in getting favorable bowl games.
It might be just me but its a little different comparing old bowl games to playoff games that happen to be bowl games.
Yes, the bowl game record is not good. How many years did teams half ass bowl games because they didnt really matter? How many of us really were all in on those bowl games after they got their annual beat down by osucks a month prior? I watched them just like all of you but it was still an empty feeling.
IMO being 0-2 in the playoff matters more. Starting next year any meaningful game in December will all playoff games anyway.
If anyone can tell you that you're not your record, but are in fact a great coach, it's definitely Scott Frost.
MGrow, JBL, Bushwood all correct:
- Jim clearly has issues with bowl prep. His record at Michigan is 1-6, and he has lost as favorite and dog.
- This is probably because he learned from Bo, who also was awful in bowls.
- THIS is probably because the attitude under both has been "we just need to execute (cringe) our game plan and all will be well."
As I have said in other threads, this attitude and bowl prep strategy will not work against a team who knows what Michigan is going to try -- run first, run some more, and pass when they have to using a vanilla air attack that's kinda rusty due to lack of meaningful reps -- and who has players comparable to those at Michigan. With a month to prepare, the opponent coaching staff will be able to shut down Michigan's plan A.
As has been put out there, Michigan needs to focus more on a balanced offense AND spend its bowl prep repping how they can break tendencies. With that much prep time, Michigan should be able to really mess with the opposing defense. But they don't take that opportunity.
I have said that I am on Jim's side now because he has evolved as Michigan's coach and made many necessary improvements in what he's doing. This is his next step, and I am hopeful he takes it. If he does, the sky is the limit for this team.
Oh, and if we had beaten TCU, it's probably a competitive game with Georgia, but we probably lose by 10 or so.
Michigan under Bo got too used to beating up on a weak Big Ten other than Ohio State. In the years they got past OSU and into the Rose Bowl, they thought they had everything figured out. They tried the play the same game they played in the Big Ten against teams filled with Pro players like USC. When it fell flat, there was no Plan B.
Harbaugh appears to have some of this in him as well. Against Georgia in '21 and TCU in '22, what Michigan wanted to do early on was not working, despite how well in worked in the Big Ten. Michigan was slow to adjust until way too late. And the adjustments when they finally came felt chaotic and ad hoc. They did not like feel like a well-rep'd Plan B ready to go. That has to change.
Assuming we played more cleanly than we did against TCU, I think we would have slowed down GA's offense better than OSU did, but that our offense could not have scored on GA the way OSU did. I imagine we would have scored maybe 20-24 points. GA probably scores 35. So probably lose by two TDs.
Sounds accurate, hard to say right? JJ didn't play too poorly against Georgia in 21, he was fearless passing and that was as a true freshman. If JJ put up 45 on OSU, 44 on Purdue...( I can't remember) , 50+ on TCU (assuming a win) It's possible. And..which team did the best at "stopping" Michigan's offense last year? I think Michigan get's theirs & maybe has a chance to take the lead in the 4th before UGA gets an insurance TD.
TCU ran all over us and we couldnt run. I dont think the Big Ten was very good last year as only Illinois played good defense like TCU did (until we opened it up and passed).
Bad call, lost touchdown, fumbled and turnover out of the danger zone (instead of the 3 inch line) has to be the most Michigan thing ever. I think that stunned us and put us on our heels. Put that fumble down on the 1 foot line and we are probably marching right back after a couple plays.
Do you think TCU ran because it seemed like Michigan over-compensated for the passing?
I bet Michigan was ok with it, because it worked against OSU. Had Michigan not stepped on 7 different rakes there's no way TCU runs 41 times right? probably not....
Georgia has a much more traditional run game compared to TCU, and a more pro-style offense than TCU...it's possible...that Minter could've game planned against that better...not perfect, but better.
Michigan not being able to run on TCU though...especially after the first play of the game...had to be the most surprising thing, and I attribute it more to coaching than ability/talent.
TCU, Illinois, and Indiana last year all showed that you can shut down Michigan's running game. But you are taking risks to do it.
We did not seem interesting in punishing those risks. We thought we could run it down their throats anyway. TCU showed us otherwise.
Hopefully we won't be so arrogant this time around.
Highlights something we're missing, that can't stand up to a team like UGA- who can play their base defense and get some quality stops- which is the ability to really take the top off a defense.
We can take the top off a terrible secondary like OSU, who has to simultaneously devote everything to stop our run, because they are essentially a video game team. But UGA, BAMA, are more hardened defenses.
UGA was like Michigan on steroids last year. Had more experience at QB. Had an NFL roster on defense.
Not sure of the score but I would be way more confident playing them this year.
UGA was Michigan on steroids 2 years ago...last year, not so much. Not nearly as dominant on defense for sure. They were much more of a passing attack last year than Michigan was. They got a lot of their rushing yardage in garbage time with such huge leads. michigan had 165 yards or more in every game, UGA didn't crack that amount 4 times. and had about 400 fewer rush yards with an extra game in there and an FCS game.
I think Michigan would have lost and it might not have been close. Everyone on the team and coaching staff knows they need to get better to win a national championship. There's no shame in saying that and it doesn't minimize their accomplishments the last two years.
i dont think we win, but i think it would be more competitive.
That said, how effing annoying is it that we finally start reaching the mountain top, and georgia ascends quicker and establishes an even higher mountain top.. with 10 first round picks on one side of the ball... If Georgia is just a year or 2 later, would we have won it all at some point?
That's not how things work, but just ... as the Oklahoma run is over (with riley), osu sputtering, bama temporarily a step back, clemson a step back... we had such a moment in front.. and here comes georgia looking like Dallas Carter
I think we win 38-35 on a Moody FG with no time on the clock because it’s just a though exercise and it makes me feel better thinking we would have won
Doc -- this makes me happy. Good vibes on a Monday, I like it.....
As well as we did against OSU in 2020.
We played our literal worst game of the season against TCU with countless uncharacteristic errors and still only lost by 7. We exposed the flaws in TCU's team (which were evident before the game, but we didn't capitalize on until the 2nd half) and UGA just executed on them. I think we would've matched up better against UGA than TCU did, but I still remember how UGA's RPOs shredded us the year before
We certainly did show Georgia what NOT to do against TCU.