Hockey scenarios
I really enjoyed the rooting guide that True Blue 9 posted so here's a hockey one and it's much simpler!
UM is at 2 in the pwr if they win, regardless of what Minnesota State today, they're#1 overall. If the other favorites win, UM would face AIC and the 8-9 would be No Dak vs Notre Dame, not a great bracket. If UM loses and the favorites hold, UM would face one of Northeastern or Lowell in first round and most likely have NoDak-ND in their draw because of avoiding teams in the first conference playing each other. Upset would throw some things in the air of course, but Notre Dame pwr of 9 does not change in most of these scenarios (collegehockey.com you are the committee).
For OSU to be out, either one of UConn or Harvard or Bemidji St has to win, otherwise OSU is in at 15.
They'd probably shift some seeds around and move ND to 10 or whatever, FWIW.
In the all favorites win scenario, the only move for intraconference matchups would be to swap SCSU with UMass, leaving the UM bracket intact. They could move some seeds around for attendance but they won't swap a 2 seed with a 3 seed e.g.
Thanks for your post OP. +1 Informative.
Let's just win the B1G banner tonight and keep momentum on our side!
Who are the most likely #1 seeds? I know Western beat N Dakota last night in the NCHC semis and faces #5 seed Minnesota-Duluth tonight, do the Broncos have a shot at a top seed?
They're a top-seed now, 3 overall and will be a top-seed regardless today, they stay at 3 overall or go to 4 in most, maybe all scenarios. Big win for them last night. Three 1-seeds are set, UM, Minnesota State, WMU. And the top-2 seeds are set as well, last one seed comes to Minnesota or Denver so in that sense, Minnesota may have more to play for.
Can Minnesota get to a 3 with a win? If not they’re going to Colorado with Denver regardless as the last 1 or the top 2.
I’m told the game tonight is sold out. Should be hopping.
One unusual conference champion ensures Michigan a good first-round matchup. Second round is a bit dicier; I’d rather not be paired with a hot North Dakota or a hot Denver team, which is an outside chance. A hot UMD isn’t great, either, but seems likelier.
Minnesota State sounds like a made-for-movies college. I’m still not convinced it exists.
Don’t let Hayden Fox hear you say that.
I’d add that if Minnesota State and Michigan both lose, Michigan would also get the #1 overall spot.
So a Michigan loss and a Minnesota State win is the only scenario where you see Michigan get the #2 overall seed. A Michigan win OR Minnesota State loss* and Michigan is #1 overall.
*- A Minnesota State loss would also eliminate OSU from the tournament, so that’s an ideal outcome no matter what happens with Michigan tonight.
Minnesota State losing would be pretty shocking, Bemidji is a little better than MSU according to the RPI. That's the reason they can't catch UM if both win. At this point if all the higher seeded teams win, which means Minnesota, you most likely have this bracket for UM:
UM-Northeastern Quinnapiac-SCSU in Albany
Which you pretty much take any day, even you do have to lose for that to happen. If UM wins, they're most likely be with Notre-Dame and North Dakota, though they would have easier first round matchup.
Shocking for sure, but it’s still single elimination hockey. Anything can happen.
Minnesota State has losses to Ferris State (49th in Pairwise), Lake Superior (32nd in Pairwise) and escaped St. Thomas (59th) on a terrible call earlier in the year for example. The better team doesn’t always win.
Edit: and Minnesota State needed OT to beat Bemidji now. College hockey isn’t as easy as predicting the better team wins. Anything can happen and the margin for error in these games is so small