uminks

May 25th, 2020 at 4:57 PM ^

Welcome Jaydon, great to have you on the team!   If we could land some big DT, and a few more DBs we will have another great defense in a few years.

Frank Chuck

May 25th, 2020 at 5:44 PM ^

I think Michigan will have an elite defense this season.

The failures of the 2017 class showed up in 2019. That's how recruiting works. 1 recruiting class with a lot of washouts shows up 1-2 years later. Hence, we had a major hole at DT this season. In that class, we had 8 DL recruits. Only Kwity Paye (who was coincidentally the lowest ranked of all the DL recruits) turned out to be a quality player so far.

Tangent: Rarely does a true freshman, including blue chip players, make an impact. Players like Ohio State's Nick Bosa or LSU's incredible CB Derek Stingley Jr. are the exceptions.

If Chris Hinton and Mazi Smith are ready to be starters as DTs, we've got something. It will be nice if Donovan Jeter and Luiji Vilain give us meaningful contributions throughout the season.

I'm looking forward to watching a DL of Aidan Hutchinson, Chris Hinton, Carlo Kemp, and Kwity Paye as the starters. We'll see how ready David Ojabo, Taylor Upshaw, Jeter, Vilain, Welschof, and Braiden McGregor are.

iMBlue2

May 25th, 2020 at 8:35 PM ^

Hawkins is a decent big 10 safety, first year as a starter and you don’t really want to notice safeties that much.  I thought Grey looks pretty good actually for a young corner,  be made some plays against NFL caliber player in the Alabama game.  I was thinking to myself that Bama looked like they stopped trying to mess with him and went after Vert. 

Frank Chuck

May 25th, 2020 at 8:07 PM ^

I understand why many people think the defense is a question mark.

But we're actually in a much better position heading into 2020 than we were heading in 2017 (when we had many more questions).

As of now, the starters in the secondary are Ambry Thomas (who will probably be a captain iyam), Daxton Hill, Brad Hawkins, and Vincent Gray.

And thanks to the number of players we redshirted from the 2018 and 2019 classes, we actually have a lot depth across the defense for the 2020 season.

Fans haven't seen the back-ups play but the coaching staff is quite happy and thankful they were able to acclimate the players with a redshirt (plus an additional year for 2018 recruits) rather than rush their development to fill holes. There's something to be said for the players who come in with a growth mindset and develop as they waits their turn. (They don't transfer away when they don't get playing time as underclassmen and that accumulated experience pays off in the long-run.)

It took the coaching staff 5 years (because the 2017 class had so many washouts) but Harbaugh finally has the kind of program he wanted to build.

The 2018 class, which many fans were unsatisfied about, has been an effective bridge class. I think people will come to realize that in time...

Stringer Bell

May 25th, 2020 at 8:23 PM ^

The one thing the 2017 defense had that the 2020 defense doesn't have is Mo Hurst, an absolutely dominant force on the inside that could make up for a lot of deficiencies.  Maybe Hinton or Smith will turn into that, maybe not.  But Hurst was a sure thing, as were Gary and Winovich.  I don't think the cupboard is as loaded now as it was back then.

iMBlue2

May 25th, 2020 at 8:41 PM ^

I think Hutch can be that kinda of sure thing player.  Paye will get drafted before the end of round 3 IMO.  If 2 out of Mazi, Hinton, Jeter hit then the defense is in good shape.  Would love to see a guy like Vilain take a step forward,  usually takes a year or so of good health to get explosiveness back after a knee(2) injuries like that.  He’s a guy that this shut down is hurting just from being able to work with the strength and condition staff.

Frank Chuck

May 25th, 2020 at 10:43 PM ^

I wonder if I should start my own Scott Bell-inspired newsletter with how much effort I've been putting in recently on the board. Anyways...

@Stringer Bell

"I don't think the cupboard is as loaded now as it was back then."

I disagree with this and here are the reasons why:

1. Michigan fans have forgotten just how enormous and daunting the transition was from 2016 to 2017.

From the 2016 defense, we lost:

- The following 9 senior starters: Ryan Glasgow, Chris Wormley, Taco Charlton, Jourdan Lewis, Delano Hill, Ben Gedeon, Mike McCray, Channing Stribling, Dymonte Thomas.

- The following 2 senior rotation players: Matt Godin, Jeremy Clark.

- Redshirt sophomore Viper extraordinaire Jabrill Peppers.

That's 12 players out of the loaded 2 deep.

In other words, we were replacing 10 starters out of 11 plus 2 quality rotation players. That's an incredible amount of roster turnover.

2. But we did return the following 4 players with significant experience: senior Maurice Hurst Jr., redshirt junior Chase Winovich, sophomore Rashan Gary, and redshirt junior Bryan Mone. Keep in mind, that we didn't know how dominant Hurst Jr. would be as a senior! Hurst had been a quality player up to that point but he took his game to a new level as a redshirt senior.

3. There were enormous questions about the secondary. Remember Zordich's comments during 2017 fall camp about the CBs which induced a panic on MGoBlog?

Lavert Hill and David Long Jr. stepped up. Fans had no idea what to expect from them until they balled out. They took Zordich's comments to mean the position group would be a shitshow. It turned out to be quite the opposite.

4. The fans also didn't know true sophomore Devin Bush would be a stud LB as a first time starter.

'Nuff said.

5. So let's look at what we're returning for next season. (I'm only including players who either started or played significant amount of meaningful snaps)"

Carlo Kemp, Aidan Hutchinson, Kwity Paye, Chris Hinton (later in the 2019 season), Cam McGrone, Josh Ross (2018, injured in 2019), Ambry Thomas, Vincent Gray, Daxton Hill, Brad Hawkins.

From that group, we have every starting position covered except Viper. That's a far cry from where we were in 2017 when we were trying to replace 10/11 starting positions and had only 3 known quantities (Hurst, Winovich, Gary).

6. Furthermore, we have way more depth in 2020 than we did back in 2017 (when we were trying to fill 10 new starting roles). Look up all the players we redshirted in 2018 and 2019.

For instance, from 2018: DE Taylor Upshaw, CB Sammy Faustin.

From 2019: DT Mazi Smith, DE David Ojabo, DE Mike Morris, DE Gabe Newburn, S Quinten Johnson, CB DJ Turner II, etc.

For instance, we have a 3 deep at Viper heading into 2020:
Redshirt sophomore Michael Barrett > Redshirt freshman Anthony Solomon > Freshman William Mohan (who will likely be redshirted).

We mostly certainly did not have this in 2017.

People haven't realized this but we quietly transitioned toward 90s Nebraska/Osborne style of roster management. Our coaches intends to redshirt the vast majority of incoming classes and only play the true freshman who are stellar from day 1.

7. Harbaugh and his staff have built up the depth on offense as well.

For instance, our RB depth chart this season is:

Senior Chris Evans, sophomore Zach Charbonnet, redshirt sophomore Hassan Haskins, redshirt sophomore Christian Turner. That's 4 players. Our backfield is so deep that Blake Corum will almost  certainly be redshirted.

Compare this with our RB depth chart heading into 2017: sophomore Chris Evans and junior Karan Higdon. (Kingston David transferred. And Kareem Walker was MIA.)

5 (2020) vs 2 (2017).

Quite the gap. And you'll see the same thing for the WR position.

All this is to say: people haven't been truly been paying attention. Yes, we have questions - lots of them. But Harbaugh has assembled a lot of options on the roster as answers. I don't mean to pull a Brooklyn's Finest but I encourage you to save this post (or bookmark this thread) and revisit it after the 2020-21 season.

Stringer Bell

May 26th, 2020 at 12:22 AM ^

I appreciate the optimism, I really do.  But you're just listing names for a lot of these.  Taylor Upshaw?  Gabe Newburg?  Sammy Faustin?  What about those guys screams anything but complete wildcard?  We haven't seen anything from guys like that on the field, and their recruiting profiles suggest guys who could easily not amount to much.  Yes, 2017 had to replace 10 starters but at least we were doing it with guys like Hill and Long, who had the recruiting profiles to portend a breakout season.  Even guys like Bush and Hudson were out there making plays on special teams in 2016 so we had seen at least something from those guys.  A lot of the names you listed?  Absolutely nothing to date.  So we'll see.  I think the offense will be up and running so I sure hope the defense lives up to the hype you're giving it.

 

Frank Chuck

May 26th, 2020 at 12:11 PM ^

Yeah, kinda like how 3 star Josh Uche ended up being drafted as a 2nd rounder while the following 4 star players from Ohio State were not:

4 star Jashon Cornell (top 100)
4 star Malik Barrow

If the classes were re-ranked, Uche would be a 4 star and those guys would be 3 stars.

Oh btw, Kwity Paye (another 3 star) will probably be a day 2 pick next season.

 

It seems you haven't realized by now that all 3 stars aren't equal. It tends to be the athletic 3 stars who have a much higher chance of getting drafted after demonstrating production.

Btw, Gabe Newburg was asked by Meyer to hold off on his commitment. Newburg declined. (IIRC, he grew up a Michigan fan.)

BlueWolverine02

May 25th, 2020 at 11:19 PM ^

I'd feel a lot more comfortable if Gray was our 4th corner, not our 2nd.  A lot is going to depend on Hinton.  If he is a stud this year, then I agree with you, we might be really good on defense.  But that's a lot riding on one player.  If it's mostly just Kemp one year older and whatever else we can scrape together, going to be more of the same as last year on defense but with worse CBs.

tcrew9

May 26th, 2020 at 9:35 AM ^

The areas this class where we are not in on any big timers are CB, DT, and S. Guess who coaches those positions? Shoop, Zordich, and Nua. The three worst recruiters on staff. These guys seriously suck and need to be fired. Year after year after year of this shit with assistants who don't pull their weight on the trail. Hiring Nua was a joke he's done absolutely nothing impressive at the most important position on defense. Shame. 

Larry Appleton

May 25th, 2020 at 9:18 PM ^

And suddenly we have the #6 class in the composite.  
 

It’s too bad that recruiting is going so poorly, otherwise I’d say this would be reason to be quite satisfied, amirite?

tcrew9

May 26th, 2020 at 9:37 AM ^

No, you aren't right. It's May. Still too many kids who have no business being in this class right now. How's CB recruiting going? DT? Safety?

This is Michigan's problem. Every year they have weak spots on staff. But hey celebrate that 89 average while OSU is sitting at 95.

AlbanyBlue

May 26th, 2020 at 5:34 PM ^

Excellente. Need to stay ahead of PSU, and this will help!

EDIT: Given all of the analysis in this thread, I think I am coming around to the idea of the 2020 defense being better than 2019. On the line, Hutch will be a dominant player, and some of the guys have to turn into dudes, right? The LB level looks awesome. I was reasonably happy with Gray last year, and another year means he should be better. That gives us strong players in Thomas, Dax Hill, and Gray (or at least, he'll be getting there) with Hawkins hopefully getting better too.

I'll bump it up to 9-3 as most probable, with Ls at OSU, at Minn, and one of PSU / Wisc / at Washington. Right now, I see a better chance of 10-2 than 8-4.