Harbaugh's and Dantonio's career records v. the point spread
With Michigan currently favored this weekend by 7 to 7.5 8 to 8.5 points, I decided to research how Harbaugh and Dantonio have fared against the spread during their careers and compile that info into the chart below. I didn’t include Harbaugh’s tenure at U. San Diego in the data because the database I used (www.teamrankings.com) doesn't have FCS data. I also didn’t include Dantonio’s time at U. Cincinnati because: (a) I’m lazy, and (b) who gives a shit about teams from Ohio?
Caveat: Note that while comparisons like this are always apples to oranges (since you’re dealing with different opponents, different seasons, different rosters, etc.), this one is even more so since Harbaugh coached in the NFL for 4 years where the point spreads are generally much tighter than in college. So in the end, all of this might be pretty useless. Also, I’m not a statistician, so feel free to chime with your input on why this data does or does not matter.
2015 Season: In addition to the historical data below, I want to add that in 2015 MSU has a record of 0-6 against the spread and is -48 in expected v. actual point spreads (-8.0 avg), while Michigan is 4-2 against the spread and is +66.5 in expected v. actual points spreads (+11.0 avg).
I will now shut up and let you all analyze and draw conclusions from the data.
| Records v. The Point Spread | ||||
| Harbaugh | Dantonio | |||
| Year | Win % | Margin | Win % | Margin |
| 2007 | 36.4% | -0.5 | 69.2% | +3.2 |
| 2008 | 58.3% | +3.7 | 46.2% | -0.5 |
| 2009 | 61.5% | +5.7 | 36.4% | -3.1 |
| 2010 | 66.7% | +11.2 | 53.8% | -2.2 |
| 2011 | 76.5% | +5.9 | 71.4% | +4.0 |
| 2012 | 57.9% | +2.1 | 38.5% | -3.2 |
| 2013 | 66.7% | +3.3 | 69.2% | +6.7 |
| 2014 | 40.0% | -4.8 | 69.2% | +6.1 |
| 2015 | 66.7% | +11.2 | 0.0% | -7.8 |
| Total: | +37.8 | +3.2 | ||
| Avg: | 59.0% | +4.2 | 50.4% | +0.3 |
October 13th, 2015 at 5:35 PM ^
it just moved to -8.5
October 13th, 2015 at 6:22 PM ^
Dammit. I was hoping it'd dip back to -7.0 and I'd jump on it. I can kiss that goodbye...
October 13th, 2015 at 5:47 PM ^
October 13th, 2015 at 5:54 PM ^
exactly, I'm sick of hearing about rankings, advanced stats and other bs, none of it matters except what happens on the field Saturday. This game will be more of a test than anything else so far this year.
October 13th, 2015 at 5:57 PM ^
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October 13th, 2015 at 6:09 PM ^
You apparently cared enough to click on this thread, that was very clearly labled, then click reply and type your message about how sick you are of them. I do agree with you the game this weekend will be a great test for the team.
October 13th, 2015 at 6:21 PM ^
delete delete delete
October 13th, 2015 at 8:42 PM ^
"Very clearly labeled"? Not sure on that; I thought I was going to read about how their respective defenses have handled Rich Rod's offense ;-)
October 13th, 2015 at 5:48 PM ^
Fuck Sparty and fuck Dantonio.
October 13th, 2015 at 5:56 PM ^
FUCK YA!
October 13th, 2015 at 6:20 PM ^
I like your style.
October 13th, 2015 at 5:54 PM ^
I thought this post was going to be about their records vs the Spread offense.
October 13th, 2015 at 8:45 PM ^
Things I hate:
1. Numbered Lists
2. Meaningless Replies to Posts
3. Irony
October 13th, 2015 at 5:59 PM ^
I'm more interested in how often any given NCAA (FBS) -7 (-8.5?) pt favorite wins straight up.
October 13th, 2015 at 6:06 PM ^
The link is dated (1999-2010 data) --- but my own data from the 2011-2014 era is very similiar.
October 14th, 2015 at 1:03 PM ^
And it looks like when the favored team is at home its closer to 77/78%.
October 13th, 2015 at 6:03 PM ^
The metrics I consider in terms of "this is a good/bad coach" is straight-up wins as an underdog, and straight-up losses as a favorite.
In the long run, there are a lot of games where teams are 10+ point favorites or underdogs. As long as it is not an upset, what's the difference if they covered? It's still the expected result.
Anyway, that diatrabe out of the way ----- Michigan State is 11-8 straight-up in the 2010-2014 era as a underdog. Say what you will about the particulars, but that is pretty good (anything over .500 is pretty good), and deserving of be-grudging respect.
Year-by-year details (all records are straight-up):
Stanford 2007: 3-7 as a dog, 1-1 as a favorite.
Stanford 2008: 3-6 as a dog, 2-1 as a favorite.
Stanford 2009: 4-3 as a dog, 5-2 as a favorite.
Stanford 2010: 0-1 as a dog, 12-0 as a favorite.
MSU 2007: 2-4 as a dog, 4-2 as a favorite.
MSU 2008: 0-4 as a dog, 9-0 as a favorite.
MSU 2009: 0-4 as a dog, 6-3 as a favorite.
MSU 2010: 2-2 as a dog, 9-0 as a favorite.
MSU 2011: 3-3 as a dog, 8-0 as a favorite.
MSU 2012: 2-1 as a dog, 5-4 as a favorite.
MSU 2013: 3-1 as a dog, 10-1 as a favorite.
MSU 2014: 1-1 as a dog, 10-1 as a favorite.
October 13th, 2015 at 7:31 PM ^
disrespeted!
October 13th, 2015 at 9:05 PM ^
October 13th, 2015 at 6:11 PM ^
October 13th, 2015 at 6:31 PM ^
I was wondering about this. A few weeks ago people were arguing that we wouldn't cover whatever our spread was because "Michigan has a history of not covering as a favorite." I thought Harbaugh's record against the spread would be more meaningful than Michigan's as a program, since we no longer had Hoke, RichRod or Carr coaching us.
October 13th, 2015 at 6:34 PM ^
An interesting analysis, but does this say more about the coaches or about the oddsmakers? A premise of making this comparison is the that point spread is gospel. I'd be curious to see a study on the variance of point spreads to final outcomes across all college football, basketball and NFL games.
October 13th, 2015 at 6:53 PM ^
All you need to know is that the money is 2 to 1 on MSU and the spread is climbing 8+. The sharps think we will blow them out.
October 13th, 2015 at 7:34 PM ^
October 13th, 2015 at 8:17 PM ^
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October 13th, 2015 at 6:54 PM ^
October 13th, 2015 at 7:08 PM ^
Oh my god the point spread, not their record against spread offences.
Took me like a full minute trying to decipher that chart before I realized.
October 13th, 2015 at 8:22 PM ^
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October 14th, 2015 at 11:27 AM ^
The opening sentence talking about the point spread wasn't enough to tip you off? Hmmm....my bad I guess.