Football Content: A Primer on MSU Offensive Scheme and Gattis's Bluff-and-Go RPO
A couple posts with some actual football content.
First, a high level look at what to expect from Michigan State with their new offensive coaching staff.
Jokes aside about how they've managed the last two years, they do have some guys with some potential. I actually think they have a decent set of skill guys that were young last year, though the loss of Stewart and White hurts at WR. Similarly, they managed to recruit some OL players that I liked, although they are still young. But do they have a QB? Questionable. And I think their scheme is actually going the wrong direction.
Another post looks at a Gattis RPO. This was a cool design that Gattis used throughout the season, but did a good job changing up the look (same side read, paired with arc read, nub formation, etc.). Gives an idea of how Gattis is going to try to keep defenses honest, particularly as he moves to a QB more willing to run.
Another item:
Shoop worked with Brown back when Brown was still utilizing a lot of 3-deep coverages. Late at BC and particularly early at Michigan, Brown moved away from that coverage almost entirely. I believe you saw it sprinkled in a little last season (a primary reason Camp was brought in, I think, as he was still utilizing that part of the playbook at BC), and expect it would get further expanded next season.
Shoop, as a DC himself, utilized a ton of zone pressure schemes with 3-deep coverage. Here is a post I wrote about Shoop in his time at PSU. Especially from Brown's 3-DL formations, he utilized a lot of zone pressure schemes last year, and I only expect that to grow.
From a Ni safety structure https://t.co/pVMurtLVJi pic.twitter.com/2wax23ppTy
— Space Coyote (@SpaceCoyoteBDS) April 22, 2020
This is a great post, but with football season so far away (and possibly in question anyways) everyone who has time to read this has 30 seconds a day to help us beat Ohio State, kick Wisconsin out of Michigan, teach GT that we are the best public university in the US, and remind TAMU that they are just like little brother. There are only 13 days left!
Steps To Play Every Day With Hyperlinks:
- Sign up for a https://reddit.com/ account if you don’t have one already
- Visit https://collegefootballrisk.com/ – Click Sign in with Reddit – Select Michigan as your team. Make sure you select Michigan the first time because you can't change this!
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- Return to https://collegefootballrisk.com/ – Scroll to the bottom of the page and execute your assignment (Note: Simply clicking action so that it becomes highlighted gray confirms the move. There’s no submit or confirm button needed)
Being a coach is tough. You may not know but I work as a equipment staffer for my old HS. I couldn't do what the coaches do. If I was a coach, I'd probably be a more conservative, run-da-ball type of coach (I would probably not used DPJ right. Just have him line up and used as more a possession receiver.)
On twitter, I also did a (admittedly) high level statistical look at recruiting rank vs production.
Defining the ranking with a little more precision.
5-star = 1st Team All-American = 1st Round Pick
High 4-Star = 2nd-3rd Team All-American = 2nd-3rd Round Pick
Mid 4-Star = P5 1st/2nd Team All-Conference any team would like = Drafted
Low 4-Star = UDFA
Thoughts:
1) For passive fans, recruiting rankings are in fact a good indicator for the impact/success of a prospect. Utilize it.
2) There is not a significant difference between 5 stars and top 100 prospects
3) Top 100 prospects are significantly more likely to be All-Americans
4) While the likelihood of success is significantly higher, it should be noted that 1/2 of top 100 prospects bust, and 2/3 don't live up to their ranking hype.
5) Beyond top 100, recruiting ranking is still generally indicative of success, but the difference is significantly less
6) 1 in 6 mid/low 4-stars get drafted, so scouting has significant importance still
7) 1 in 21 low 3-stars get drafted. So a generic 4-star is ~3x more likely to get drafted than a low 3-star. A high 3-star is about ~2x as likely to get drafted than a low 3-star. At the macro level, the difference is significant.
8) But, these numbers are more significant if you are only recruiting based on recruiting rankings (macro level). But because significantly more recruits at this range don't live up to the level you desire (good starter/contributor), scouting at this range is much more important than the actual rank (though forces you to do your own scouting or trust the coaches, otherwise you'll only look negatively at recruits in this range). This means at the micro level (the specific recruit) the ranking below Top 100 isn't something you should be as wrapped up in.
9) You can basically trust the recruiting services ranking of top 100 players. Yes, you still want to scout a prospect as a coach, but you'll likely find successful players in those ranks.
10) But as a coach, you don't just get to decide "I'll take top 100 players." So if you can't get a top 100 prospect, scouting + development is still fundamental to find successful players at a better rate than peers.
My take from this isn't too different than I think most:
- We should be expecting Harbaugh to be able to recruit more Top 100 players than he currently is. But where 5 teams essentially take half of the top 100 players, the actual number is probably realistically 1-4 top 100 recruits per class (i.e. for the debbie downers, not enough to compete with OSU in recruiting).
- That said, per the 2016 class and what I expect for the 2017 class, Harbaugh actually has scouted and developed 3-star players at a higher clip than his peers. He is developing a lot of high floor, good, solid P5 players.
- His primary issue is the other end: QB and super stars. Michigan hasn't had a lot of guys truly bust (at least not any more than the average team) among 5-star and 4-star players, but they aren't getting them to perform quite at the level you would hope (i.e. the top players aren't becoming can't miss guys).
- All this amounts to a team that takes care of business against teams it should, beats the even teams at home, and loses to the very top teams or equal teams on the road.
- Pretty much every offensive player currently committed in the '21 class, per recruiting rankings, is a good player for Michigan to have.
- While the defensive side of the ball is less optimal, 1 of the players I see as a guy Michigan would pretty much always accept in the class, 2 are guys that I think have specific traits and fits in Brown's defensive scheme that make them attractive as solid contributors/starters in their roles. And 1 I struggle to see the fit for, but remember the coaches know much more about the prospects than we do.
- The problem is, Michigan is still recruiting a lot of guys I view as good, solid contributors. Back end of the draft type guys as an upside. They've been good at scouting those guys and developing them. The improve their ability to compete with top teams, they need to bring in some guys with higher upside (even if their floor is also lower). Uche is an example of this.
- Michigan isn't going to compete with OSU by will. "We want higher ranked recruits" doesn't bring in higher ranked recruits. They need to bring in guys that can first beat OSU 1 in 5 times. That allows you to attract more that can beat them 1 in 4 times, and so on and so forth. Michigan isn't going to recruit alone to break even with OSU from a recruiting rankings. Michigan is identifying the guys that make up the foundation of those 1 in 5 teams. The question is if they are getting the guys on top of that foundation to deliver the rest of the way.
April 29th, 2020 at 10:40 AM ^
Re: Last bullet point.
It's getting late early for Harbaugh. Can he really afford to go 1-4 against OSU in the next 5, after an 0-5 start? He's gonna get axed way before he has the chance to be 1-9.
I think the biggest problem for Harbaugh is that he missed his recruiting window already. Why do new hires at blue bloods win big early? The enter a situation that has good upperclassmen that were underachieving, they sprinkle on their new coach dust, mix in the impact underclassmen they recruited with the wave of new hire momentum, and boom! They win big. That "win big" season then propels the next wave of recruiting after the new car smell wears off. 2015 was perfect. Harbaugh had everything he needed to win big in 2016--and lost three items. Then all of his foundational upperclassmen got drafted, and he lost 5 times in 2017. Just like that, the new hire momentum around Michigan had completely evaporated by the end of 2017. The 2018 class suffered the effects of that. And while the 2019 class was a good rebound class, Michigan continues to have to build teams over faulty foundations. It's just so hard to play recruiting catch up.
When Harbaugh was hired, Dantonio said "they're selling hope, we're selling results," and everyone here clowned Dantonio for it. But Dantonio was right. Michigan was selling hope. And hope is a powerful selling point for blue blood programs. Michigan had great 2016 and 2017 recruiting classes off the strength of that hope. But guess what? Now Michigan is selling results. And we see where its recruiting is because of those results.
Put it this way, I'm way more afraid of PJ Fleck coming in and riding an upperclassman JJ McCarthy to a 12 win season than I ever am of Harbaugh catching the train he already missed.
April 29th, 2020 at 10:47 AM ^
You're a bucknut who's saying something I don't like, so go shit in a cooler, but it's hard to argue with your point. The questionable loss to OSU really knocked the wind out of the program, but they could have recovered had they gone 11-1 that season. Unfortunately, they didn't and lost the bowl game which created a huge funk.
I can't see Harbaugh lasting more than two more consecutive losses to OSU.
Nobody is firing Harbaugh if he goes 11-1 in the regular season. THAT'S the first step in getting to that 1 win in 5 tries vs Osu. We go 11-1 two consecutive years with closer scores on that 12th game and you will see recruiting pick up steam. Elite recruits want to win, period. They all know they can go to any of the elite programs and get drafted so Harbaugh's NFL pedigree doesn't matter. A vast majority of them aren't overly concerned with education so that doesn't matter to them either. They will get all the grades, but they place results over the degree. Bottom line, we cannot afford some of the terrible games we have played since 2017 against inferior talent. Until we start going 11-1 the problem isn't talent alone, and that's the turn off for the elite recruits...
April 29th, 2020 at 11:02 AM ^
His easiest path was winning the 2016 OSU game. Win that game, and Michigan is a lot different right now.
I think his chance to even things out with OSU has grown tougher because he missed that window. You can scrap it and try to start over or you can give a guy a chance to actually build something. For purposes of this though, his target (OSU) changed. Meyer came in and elevated OSU to a level they never recruited at before. So as Michigan has closed the gap almost completed with the pre-Meyer Buckeyes, OSU has just continued to improve (which is what happens when you hire a coach with 2 National Titles to his name and he manages a national title early in his tenure)
I tend to think the public is way too reactionary when it comes to desiring coaching changes. I also think if Harbaugh doesn't work, the next guy won't have the same "hope" Harbaugh was willing to sell, because if Harbaugh couldn't get it done, why would recruits expect the next guy to?
Nevertheless, the best Harbaugh and the program can do is try to continue to build a strong foundation, I think they are doing a pretty strong job of that. If this staff is going to win, that's at least a preliminary step that's needed.
April 29th, 2020 at 12:21 PM ^
I think 2016 OSU was Harbaugh's chance. That was the peak and was his chance to get Michigan to be viewed as truly elite. Everyone would've been a Harbaugh believer, but he missed and it feels like that apex almost isn't achievable anymore under Harbaugh. We missed our chance
April 29th, 2020 at 12:44 PM ^
I also think if Harbaugh doesn't work, the next guy won't have the same "hope" Harbaugh was willing to sell, because if Harbaugh couldn't get it done, why would recruits expect the next guy to?
See, this is where I think people really over estimate Harbaugh's coaching abilities. I think after 5 years here at Michigan, it's quite clear that Harbaugh is not a Meyer, Saban, type coach who comes into a program and turns it into a dominating powerhouse. He had 1 good season at Stanford (which I'm now starting to think was more about Andrew Luck being a QB specimen more than Harbaugh being a QB whisperer) and that's about it. He did really good at San Diego but that's also a different level of college than here at Michigan...it was also like 12 years ago and a lot has changed since then.
Yes he did great work in the NFL, but coaching in the NFL is different than college. We've seen time and time and time again that being a good coach in college often doesn't translate to being good in the NFL, and vice versa. It's apples and oranges.
Point being, I don't think Harbaugh is the level of coach like an Urban Meyer where you say "if he can't do it, no one can". There are multiple coaches in the B1G alone that have proven to be no worse than Harbaugh, if not better in some aspects (not counting Meyer). Otherwise we'd only be losing 1 game every season.
So I respectfully disagree that Harbaugh is the best coach we'll ever get and that if he can't do it no one can. He's a very good coach, but he's not a great / elite coach.
Edit: And just to clarify, when I say "coaching abilities" I don't just mean Xs and Os, or football IQ. Being a head coach in college has many more facets to it and a HC has to be able to pull off all of these facets in order to build an elite program. How many people raved about Charley Weiss' Xs and Os just to see him completely face plant in college as a HC? That's not comparing Weiss to Harbaugh, just illustrating the overall point. Gotta be able to "do it all" so to speak and be able to get these young men to buy into what you're selling and teaching.
I think there's more to that though. Factor in that he was universally loved and respected as a coach (on any level) and one of the highest paid in the profession. I still think the fan base would be split if he was let go, and could you imagine how bad it would be if the new coach didn't beat OSU immediately?
Also of note, no snark intended, but how do you think Saban & Meyer do with exact same rosters over the last 5 years?
That's an interesting thought. If a new coach was brought in, would he have lower, higher, or the same expectations as Harbaugh carries? I honestly don't know. On the one hand, you'll have lots of people who say "well if this new guy is brought into replace Harbaugh then he'd better do substantially better", then you'd have others who say "he's not "Harbaugh" therefore the bar should be lower initially"...so yeah, that'd be interesting to say the least to see how the fan base would react.
Well, considering that I think being the HC involves more than Xs and Os, I think that if Saban or Meyer were to have taken over 5 years ago instead of Harbaugh I genuinely believe we'd be at least on equal footing with OSU if not completely on top. I also think we wouldn't have the recruiting issues we currently have nor the consistent roster holes that always seem to pop up.
I think Meyer for sure (not so sure about Saban) is a little better adapting his offensive game plan to the personnel he has and getting his best athletes onto the field than Harbaugh is. Like, somehow he always gets his players to execute his schematic vision, something I think we've struggled with under Harbaugh. Not necessarily that Harbaugh's ideas are "bad" but we just seem to fail on the execution side of things too often. I don't necessarily know what it is, but Meyer just has that "it" factor as a coach and winning at the highest level (please be mature enough to realize this is regarding his on-field abilities, not his lack of ethics as a person). Literally every stop he's gone to he's completely dominated. Obviously he's lost games (Clemson recently haha) and that amazing final win by Carr, but overall he's been phenomenal with a 12-0 season at Utah and three national titles at two different schools. That's just a personal ability to win and develop winners.
And of course it was our bad luck that he went to OSU at a time when they were primed to fall off with Fickel as interim. So naturally our job just got infinitely more difficult. At this point, Harbaugh just needs to make it respectable. If he could start winning 1 out of every 3 then I think he could save his job. But if he can't even do that, he's probably gone sooner rather than later. Yes OSU is on a higher level than they've ever been, but you have to be able to win SOME of those games and you can't keep getting embarrassed like we have been. If Auburn can beat Bama every so often than we should definitely be able to do the same with OSU.
Don't forget JOK in 2017 as well. Michigan very well could've won 2 straight, and how would that have changed the narrative? Almost all title winning coaches have won early, ie: the first 3 years right? Except Dabo. I think the hope is that Harbaugh can turn this thing into a long term project. Dabo was equally successful during these years, albeit with fewer national expectations. Lightning in a bottle recruit Watson elevates them to a new height and recruits follow.
Otherwise, this Michigan team is eerily similar to what Michigan always has been except for the OSU part. Winning about 75-80% of their games per decade. At least half of the frustration is the national reporters continuing to ride Michigan for the clicks as well as opposing fans on social media.
How many other fan bases are miserable with 9/10 wins per year? How many other schools get derided for having 10 draft picks in one draft?
Actually, Dabo did win his conference title in his 3rd full year of being HC. He took over as HC mid-way through the previous season when the old coach stepped down.
And I don't think it's about being miserable just cause we're a greedy fan base. It's the expectations that Harbaugh carried with him when he came here plus never beating OSU.
Honestly, the playoff isn't nearly as important to me personally as is beating OSU and winning the B1G. If we were to consistently do that, I'd be more than ecstatic even without going to the playoff.
Edit: While I would love a Clemson style long-term project under Harbaugh (cause that would mean beating OSU and starting to win titles), I'm afraid that the longer the project continues, the poorer the results will get. How often do coaches take YEARS getting to that level? I mean, once that I can think of off the top of my head with Dabo but even he at least one a conference title in year three which I believe sustained the program until he could win it again four years later. We missed our chance for that long-term project sustaining season back in 2016 and I'm not terribly confident we can recover from it under Harbaugh.
April 30th, 2020 at 11:50 AM ^
should've clarified, I mean national titles. Mack Brown, Stoops, Saban, Meyer, Miles, Jimbo, Orgeron, Carroll all had very early success with regards to national titles. How many of them had a top 5 team in their division? Orgeron? (Bama had a crippled Qb and lost both starting linebackers before the season fwiw)
At this point I'd be happy beating OSU as well, but it would mean less if they still win the division/conference. And I'd still hate to see Penn State win it...or fucking Sparty, and since Rutgers, Indiana, and Maryland aren't options...It has to be us.
I think the lack of any sort of program momentum is what's killing spirits also. It's like the Wings at the end of their playoff run. They are good enough to be top 15, but not good enough to win it, and are stuck in this limbo period where the ceiling seems to be 11-1 and the floor is 8-4.
Dabo is an outlier comparison for many reasons, but the biggest one is his first 3 years at Clemson were his first three years being a head coach at any level ever. In fact, he hadn't even spent a full season as offensive coordinator before he just became Clemson's head coach.
Comparing Dabo at Clemson to Harbaugh at Michigan (and all the other win big early guys) ignores the fact that Harbaugh got to Michigan with nearly a decade of head coaching experience at multiple levels and Dabo started 2008 as Clemson's WR coach and ended it as their head coach.
April 30th, 2020 at 11:41 AM ^
I don't understand though what that means as far as taking time to recruit and build a program. It's not so much an x's and o's thing, as much as it is about getting the right staff, and getting some continuity.
you are reasonable and right.
but, f you and your whole fanbase for the shit that was 2016
:)
This is a really good post, but unfortunately it's completely wrong.
There's no window or train. It's wins. Beat Ohio State in Columbus next year and the 0-5 record means little. He'll be 1-1 against Day and have proven he can do it. Win in AA the following year and Michigan will out-recuit OSU. From that point he'd be at the 2 of 5 level or so and a fumble or a player here or there gets that to 2.5 out of 5.
I think Harbaugh is a very good coach that luck hasn't favored at Michigan. There's plenty of him for you to fear yet.
Now if he doesn't beat OSU soon, we'll have our answer. But if he does, things flip very quickly.
April 29th, 2020 at 12:53 PM ^
Space Coyote I am going to screenshot this. Every time people who don’t understand how recruiting works I am going to post this. Not every 3 star player is trash. Harbaugh knows how to identify guys who are good Big Ten contributors. Of course we need some more top end guys, but they are usually one or two stars away from really competing. QB play really drags a team down. Even if the QB is good. Patterson was good. Michigan need him to be great. Great QBs make mediocre offenses better. But great offenses can’t drag along a good QB.
April 29th, 2020 at 10:06 AM ^
Great breakdown of the data and summary.
I'd be curious if there is a difference in probability if that 3, 4 , or 5 star goes to a blue-blood, P5, or G5 team. If you're a 5-star and go to Alabama and are good but not great, you could get benched for a 5-star coming in behind you. You either transfer or don't get drafted.
If you're a 5-star and go to say Rutgers, even if you only end up being good, you're a 4 year starter that gets to develop and be the focus of the offense/defense.
April 29th, 2020 at 10:11 AM ^
That would be interesting. I wonder if Michigan seems not to develop elite talent as well as some other programs because our elite guys are forced on to the field so early. Sometimes it's nice for a young player to sit and learn from someone better than them before they're thrust out into the limelight.
April 29th, 2020 at 10:28 AM ^
Players spend a lot more time at practice than in games. I'd think that makes the potential for development a lot higher at Bama, going against their players and working with their coaches.
April 29th, 2020 at 10:34 AM ^
This is a good point. Iron sharpens iron, as Harbaugh used to say, and Alabama's iron is a lot sharper than ours.
I'm really excited to see what Gattis can do now that he's had some experience as an OC. There was clearly a learning curve for him.
It's a huge bummer that Covid-19 is going to wreck a lot of the year 1 to year 2 continuity that they're trying to build.
FWIW, I sat in on a Zoom clinic with MSU's staff a couple weeks ago. I genuinely wasn't trying to spy or anything. It was just an opportunity to learn.
I don't know exactly what you mean by the scheme going in the wrong direction (I haven't read your MSU post yet, but I will), but I definitely did not get the vibe that it's an innovative offense, by any stretch of the imagination. It seems like a team that plans to continue the "we're going to out-execute opponents" plan and have an attitude when doing it, and based on their recruiting, I don't know if that's possible.
April 29th, 2020 at 10:00 AM ^
I agree with your take. "Not going in the right direction" is from MSU's perspective. I think their scheme last year under Salem was better than what Johnson is running.
April 29th, 2020 at 10:30 AM ^
I'm certainly no expert, but I thought their offensive schemes were improved last season. It was their talent level that held them back.
April 29th, 2020 at 10:52 AM ^
Yep. They looked slow.
Will say Reed, Nailor and Mosley look like a decent WR group, assuming Barnett goes back to secondary (which they desperately need help at).
Yeah, from what I've heard, Barnett will be switching back to defense, similar to what Justin Layne did. Biggest problem for the offense last year was the O-line. Scheme was better, but it doesn't matter what scheme you run if you can't block.
April 29th, 2020 at 10:22 AM ^
I really appreciate this content. While this is HS calculus level, and I'm personally in 4th grade and struggling with long division, the parts of this I understand are super interesting. And its exciting when I do understand, like "Hey!!! I get that one!!!"
April 29th, 2020 at 10:23 AM ^
*sigh* The jet sweep to the boundary...
April 29th, 2020 at 10:33 AM ^
What do you think of Hazleton, the new DC?
April 29th, 2020 at 10:58 AM ^
It's difficult to project the defense. I think Hazleton himself is an interesting hire with a kind of cool scheme. But his scheme is quite different than Tucker's scheme, which is Saban influenced (much closer to what Smart runs at UGA).
So what are they going to run? Hard to say. Colorado's defensive personnel was also quite limited last year, so that doesn't help. There were a few games that looked like "I think this is what Tucker actually wants to do, but these guys can't do it."
So I really don't know what to expect year 1 on that front.
April 29th, 2020 at 12:00 PM ^
He has a great beard
April 29th, 2020 at 12:01 PM ^
Thanks for the article Mr. Coyote. I really think a lot of MSU fans are underestimating how bare the cupboard is right now. I thought they ran a relatively modern offense last year but just did not have any kind of horses especially up front. And looking at it this year, who is a potentially draftable player on offense? Collins is promising but I don’t think he’s a game breaker.
This is going to be a year to get the scheme down and figure out what you’ve got in the young guys. For the near rearm you might hope for a guy with more of a schematic advantage to try and manufacture more offense but in the long term it may be good to just get the execution down.
Its good they gave him such an expensive contract because now they can’t afford to fire him and he’s gonna need that time.
In a weird way, MSU's defense seems more concerning than offense. Offense has some solid young talent at WR, TE, oline and RB...QB is a giant question mark.
On defense there are significantly more question marks.
April 29th, 2020 at 11:15 PM ^
MSUs defense is taking a step back this year. They lost three multi year starters on their line in Panisiuk, Willekes, and Raequan. Those guys were good. The D-line is really thin. They also lose Bachie and Scott. Where’s the threat?
I think most Spartan fans realize that it's going to be a rough road. There are plenty of guys on offense with good potential so the cupboard isn't entirely bare, but no real proven performers outside of Collins. I'm excited to see what some of the guys can become over the next 2-3 years, but potential doesn't win games right now.
Edit: I agree with the post above me in the assessment and also the fact that it is weird.
April 29th, 2020 at 12:21 PM ^
Hopefully, whoever ends up being the starting QB will be more involved with the scheme than Shea allegedly was during the first half of the season (I'm beginning to think the "golf" dig Gattis made was more true than realized).
We saw it begin to click as the season went on, especially with the pastings we gave Notre Dame and MSU. When it worked, it worked well.
April 29th, 2020 at 12:27 PM ^
On a related note, Space Coyote, I read your Gattis/RPO article and was inspired to draw up a pretty nice play design that I think we can use this fall. It's not one of the plays you outlined, but kind of a twist off of one that should work nicely based off of our personnel/scheme.
April 29th, 2020 at 12:58 PM ^
On a practical level, I'm still not sure how a RPO fundamentally differs from the zone read. As I understand it, both are "on the fly" plays made by a QB decision to either keep and run, hand off, or decide to pass. And to tell the truth, the setup for both looks pretty much the same (shotgun or pistol formation, with the same style handoff that differs from the pro-style play action handoff).
Somebody said that the zone read is more scripted in the intended outcome, but I always thought that, when we ran the zone read with Rich Rod and Hoke (first 2 years), that it was the QB's discretion as to which option was used as the play happened, and that included the pass.
The zone read option is kind of an RPO and kind of not. It's essentially the old triple option pitch, except the pitch is an overhand pass to a receiver running some sort of screen behind the line of scrimmage. Most of the time, those are forward passes, but just barely; sometimes they end up being laterals, especially if the bubble route comes from a receive running in motion behind the quarterback.
A real RPO is a downfield throw, whether it's 5 yards or 17 yards. Typically, an RPO is when you read a second-level defender (a.k.a. a linebacker) or a third-level defender (a.k.a. a safety). So you block the first-level defenders (a.k.a. defensive linemen) and throw off the guys behind them.
I hope that helps.
Now see, I don't remember seeing it ever go to a pitch a la triple option when watching Rich Rod's spread (or even Hoke's). Usually it appeared to be a mesh point handoff with one of three things happening: 1.) RB takes it and runs, 2.) QB fakes the handoff and runs, or 3.) QB fakes the handoff and passes (which again, I don't see as being essentially different than the RPO in principle).
I do see your point about throws behind the LOS, and I do remember screen-ish plays like that, but I also remember seeing downfield throws as well.
Example: I know this is not really a favorite game of Michigan players, but watch the first play in the clip below that Denard makes (00:40). It's a downfield throw from a zone read. Now, on the surface, that looks no different to me than what's been labeled as a typical RPO, where the QB simply makes a decision on the fly to throw (which is what Denard seems to be doing). The zone read was always called a "read and react," which is what an RPO also seems to do: essentially take the defense's game and play accordingly.
If I'm getting you, it seems as if the RPO's focus is mostly (but not strictly) a vertical stretching of the field whereas a zone read primarily is concerned with a horizontal stretching. That, and the RPO does not necessarily require a dual threat to run (although at least a scrambling ability is an added bonus to the game).
More simply put:
Zone Read is effectively a "Run-Run Option" (some people talk about it as an RRO) in that you read a defender (typically but not always a first level defender) and either you give or keep to run.
An RPO is an Run-Pass Option, in which you will give the ball on the run or pass the ball to a receiver, based on a read.
Now, a play can combine both. It can have a a first level defender be the first read, and then a second player that dictates if the QB runs or passes. This is what Magnus is referring to as "Triple Option", in that there is a first read for the QB to give/keep, and if keep, there is a second read for the QB to keep/pitch (pass).
FWIW, most RPOs do not combine both a Read Option and a Pass Option, because it's too much to process on one play (the one primary exception of this is the bubble RPO, which is basically the triple option play). But like the play you linked, may still give the impression of a read option, and that threat alone may impact the defense. Denard is only reading one defender on the play you linked (the backside safety); if that safety drops down, Denard pulls and throws. If that safety stays high, Denard gives to the RB. It's an RPO. But the read option threat is what causes the defense to play it the way they do.
Thank you, Space Coyote and Magnus.
(This is far more enjoyable conversation than some of the other "non-football" discussions, btw.)
So this confirms that an RPO does not need a dual threat to execute the plays, or even a spread formation for that matter.
Still, it seems as if the QB with a run threat would add another dimension to this offense. I get why it could become too complicated, but it seems that, if you could execute all three aspects (QB handoff to RB; QB pass, QB run) and do so smoothly, you'd be a devastating offense.
This is a great post, but with football season so far away (and possibly in question anyways) everyone who has time to read this has 30 seconds a day to help us beat Ohio State, kick Wisconsin out of Michigan, teach GT that we are the best public university in the US, and remind TAMU that they are just like little brother. There are only 13 days left!
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Thanks for the breakdowns SC.
I thought MSU did some ok things on offense last season. What really killed them was their defense let them down in some key situations and they had the return of some signature “Sparty NO” moments. Maybe not the best time to finally shell out big money for a coach as I am skeptical there is a season in the fall.