Expected Wins

Submitted by Red is Blue on

Last week a poll was posted that showed the expectations for wins in the remaining games.  (Insert credit here to the OP).  That polled showed the chances victories as follows:

Purdue       88%

Wiscy         12%

OSU           15%

Those expecations may have changed after the Illini win, but seems like they would probably still be approximately accurate.  Based on those expectations.

Average expected regular season wins:  7.15

Regular Season Wins                 Chance

9                                                       1.6%

8                                                       20.8%

7                                                       68.6%

6                                                         9.0%

 

The overall chance of getting to 7-5 or better is 91%, but the chances of reaching that without a Purdue victory is only about 3% (pretty obvious).

 

 

MGoBoard
Football

clarkiefromcanada

November 7th, 2010 at 9:21 AM ^

...the Danny Hope jackass factor increasing everyone's motivation.

I think Wisconsin will be competitive and, while a road game, both Ohio State's offense (Pryor especially) and defense are vastly over rated. They will be a two loss team when we play them.

Joined: 11/20/2008

MGoPoints: 49257

mGrowOld

November 7th, 2010 at 8:23 AM ^

I "expect" nothing at this point and enjoy everything.  If there's anything I've learned over the past 2.5 years it's that nothing can be taken for granted anymore.

Thank you for yesterday guys - it was awesome!

Joined: 10/04/2010

MGoPoints: 213315

WestCBlue

November 7th, 2010 at 8:30 AM ^

has to be the expectation.

But think about this.  A 7-3 MI team is a different team then the team we had 3 weeks ago.

More confident, more seasoned players, etc.

A 7-3 team can create an upset.....

Joined: 04/08/2009

MGoPoints: 1292

lilpenny1316

November 7th, 2010 at 8:44 AM ^

This is just one argument/theory.  OSU will be at the end of a physical three game stretch.  PSU and Iowa will be a more physical set of games right before The Game in recent memory.  They usually play Illinois or another mid-to-bottom tier school the week before us.  And the PSU game is usually in October.  PSU is re-energized and the Iowa game may be considered the de facto Big Ten title game.  There could be a letdown or at worst some pretty beat up bodies going into that game.

I'm not willing to put money on Michigan beating the spread, but we might be going into that game with some renewed confidence and maybe more energy than OSU, at least at the outset.

Just a theory.

Joined: 11/19/2009

MGoPoints: 61859

akblue

November 7th, 2010 at 10:48 AM ^

We can take down the Buckeyes with this team. If we can eliminate mistakes and run our offense we'll be in a great position to win.

We only had 1 penalty against UConn-- if we play with that kind of focus and intensity a new streak will begin.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 479

Princetonwolverine

November 7th, 2010 at 9:00 AM ^

Since we are not going to win the Big 10 championship and are still going bowling  I say we go all out. Trick plays galore. If we are going to lose make is fun for the players and fans. Hey, how great would those wins be. Nothing to lose.

Joined: 10/10/2010

MGoPoints: 14174

acs236

November 7th, 2010 at 9:03 AM ^

If you're accepting the poll numbers as true probabilities, how can Michigan only have a 3% of getting to  7 wins without a Purdue victory if there is a 15% chance of beating OSU and a 12% chance of beating Wiscy?

 

Joined: 01/27/2009

MGoPoints: 1021