ESPN FPI B1G Rankings
The ESPN rankings, for what they are worth, are not kind to the Wolverines. OSU with the highest projected number of wins, UM is 7th and MD is bringing up the rear. Both IN and NW are ranked ahead of us ? but NW is in the far easier West.
If Michigan wins 7 or 8 games Harbaugh’s seat will be ON FIRE.
On edit: I just looked at our schedule again, assuming we play, and it's absolutely brutal. Eight wins might not get people too restless.
-
AT WASHINGTON
- VS BALL STATE
- VS ARKANSAS STATE
- VS WISCONSIN
- VS PENN STATE
- AT MICHIGAN STATE
- AT MINNESOTA
- VS PURDUE - HOMECOMING
- VS MARYLAND
- AT RUTGERS
- VS INDIANA
- AT OHIO STATE
There are only four easy games, assuming MSU still sucks.
vs Ball St.
vs Ark. St.
at MSU
vs Purdue
vs Maryland
at Rutgers
I count 6 easy games.
We have PSU ,Wisconsin and Indiana at home. Those games should be wins.
at Washington
at Minnesota
at OSU....now these 3 aren't easy but winnable.
Nobody in the stadium. I'm saying there's a chance . . .
Also, what makes Wisconsin and Penn State games Michigan "should win." I think Wisconsin is a coin flip, but I absolutely favor Penn State next year.
During the Harbaugh Era, at home...
2016 Wisconsin: W 14-7
2018 Wisconsin: W 38-13
2016 Penn State: W 49-10
2018 Penn State: W 42-7
I'm more considering the teams that will be playing in the games not the ones of the past.
All games that Michigan plays are winnable. The percentage certainly varies but all are winnable.
This is true of all games for all teams.
when you least expect it...
I'll have what he's having please
Okay, you are officially the biggest moron on this thread. Tell us all how in the F"ck Ohio is winnable? Go back to your basement buttwipe.
just be glad you aren't a sparty, sitting at a predicted 4-8 record on the same chart.
A Sparty 4-8 is like a Michigan 8-4. Slightly worse than usual.
Yo take your shitty attitude and behavior somewhere else. If you want to debate someone, do it. If your only tactic is to attack someone because you disagree with them, you're a child.
You could post this on every thread.
Because they haven’t played any games and nobody “knows” what will happen. We watch games hoping our teams will win, right, even when we expect a loss? Or do you watch games just so you can say, “See, we sucked like I said we would”?
OSU will have a more talented but younger team next year. Who knows how their defense will respond to losing two of the top 3 picks in the draft, a second 1st round corner, a solid safety in Fuller, as well as other starters on the line and at LB. They also lost Dobbins and Master T.
Perhaps Nico and Co. tear up their young secondary, minis Wade. Maybe we have the better RBs. Maybe our LBs are healthy and much bette than theirs—and Aiden Hutch playa BIG DPOY level with Ambry and Dax. Maybe Hinton takes the interior leap with Mazi. Maybe DMac is quarantining with Christian and puts on another 15 pounds of muscle and has a lights out year.
If we are going to imagine games played, I like to have something to watch. That’s called optimism—seeing if these young man can do what many people, including their own fans, doubt they can.
Going out on a limb here, but based on your language I am in doubt you graduated from the University of Michigan in 1981, or ever.
Come on. Loss to OSU. @Minnesota is 50/50.
They're better than everyone else.
OK. So Michigan goes 11-1 or 10-2 next season? Make that bet and make yourself rich.
This isn't hard to figure out.
Michigan under Harbaugh only loses 4 types of games: OSU games, MSU home games with extraordinary circumstances, road games against good teams, and bowl games.
Washington is not as good as ND was in 2018. So Minnesota, OSU, and another bowl loss are your worst-case scenario.
Hey, I make this point every time something comes up. Like, he's been pretty predictable over his tenure.
Speaking of which, those stupid MSU games. Could easily have been 5-0 versus Dantonio.
Washington, depending on how/if/when it happens, will be an interesting litmus test. They've been a really good team over the Chris Petersen era, but he's gone. First time coach. That environment isn't easy. First time starting QB for Michigan. Could end up like the Utah game from 2015 where they lose, but it's close, and McCaffrey throws an INT or two that has half this board calling for Milton right away.
I'd say 9-3 or 10-2. I'm not sold on Wisconsin or Penn State being as good as everyone thinks they'll be. Wisconsin loses Taylor and some linemen.
UW is breaking in a new qb as well
At Minnesota is not 50/50 if we are being honest...chances are it will be a road night game inside the B1G against a ranked opponent. Don’t know the last game like that we won under Harbaugh. He’s fairly unbeatable at home outside of MSU/OSU. So if trends hold we will be 10-2
At Minnesota is not 50/50 if we are being honest...chances are it will be a road night game inside the B1G against a ranked opponent. Don’t know the last game like that we won under Harbaugh.
It's effin Minnesota. They didn't magically turn into OSU overnight. We have way more talent than them and it's not even close. Morgan & Bateman will be good, but they lost their top RB and WR in Rodney Smith & Tyler Johnson. They aren't going to beat UM with Bateman alone. And, who do they have on defense that's worth a damn? I'd expect Hutch, Paye, & McGrone to make life difficult for Morgan & the backs & Thomas & Hill to be able to handle Bateman. And, who's going to stop Charbonnet, Haskins, Nico, et. al? I'm thinking like a 35-17 type of game where they stay in it for 3 quarters before UM pulls away late.
Minnesota coasted through an incredibly easy schedule and people hyped them up. They’re not really that good. They just played three teams worth a damn, and went 1-2 in those games with two of them being at home. Not counting meaningless bowl games, because again, meaningless.
They’re not bad by any means, but it’s not like we’re walking into Happy Valley or the Horseshoe either
-
AT WASHINGTON. 50/50
- VS BALL STATE. WIN
- VS ARKANSAS STATE. WIN
- VS WISCONSIN 50/50
- VS PENN STATE. 50/50
- AT MICHIGAN STATE. WIN. They are decimated.
- AT MINNESOTA. 50/50
- VS PURDUE - HOMECOMING. WIN
- VS MARYLAND WIN
- AT RUTGERS. WIN
- VS INDIANA. WIN-Not buying the hype
- AT OHIO STATE. LOSS. JFC, we haven't won in Columbus since 2000...what a shitty 20 year stretch
Worst case: 7-5
Expectation: 9-3
Best case: 11-1
After getting jobbed in Columbus in 2016, and considering the talent gap, I only feel we have a reasonable shot at them at home (that said, this last year was...uh...not so good).
Anyway, another 9-3 year IMO. ESPN saying 4 wins is our floor is RIDICULOUS.
Things would have to go off the rails for that to happen.
Why get upset about FPI in May when no one knows a fucking thing. I'm not saying you are upset, but it's pretty much always wrong with us. What was it in 2016? 2017? It might have been right last year, but that would be it. I'm speaking preseason.
The only game this year that I think Michigan is almost certainly going to loose is sadly OSU, the rest are winnable or they at least have a shot. Now Michigan will probably have more losses than OSU put I’d say 7 wins is a pessimistic outlook.
If we loose against OSU, won’t we have more looses than them?
I think 10-2 is very achievable. 8-4 and I'd imagine we would have some very unhappy campers in the fan base.
7-5 would be a disaster.
Why would anyone even go to ESPN for sports anymore? Everything they do makes no sense.
Have you read anything on this board? It's nice to get an unbiased opinion of how Michigan still hasnt pulled themselves out of this dreaded hole. On this board 2*-3* are like 5* or just WAY "underrated"
We will be breaking in a number of new O linemen, a new qb, returning a DL that wasn't very good, and have little depth in the secondary. If the teams wins less than 9 games, it will be rough for the coaching staff.
I don't see the wolverine offense off more that last year. First half of the season was a rough patch. Even if we factor in the OL taking a while finding its feet,, Wariner will have them shaping up. The defense should be formidable this year. Also, last years schedule was more steep IMO.
I agree, you'd have to think year two with Gattis, a QB with a bit better decision making, the Charbonnet/Haskins combo, another year of Nico would equate to an improved offense. I think we expected more from last year's o-line and Patterson than we got, so it's not hard to see an improvement from last year even with losing them. Plus, I'd expect a nice improvement from Bell, Jackson, & Sainristill. I see a 10-2 regular season with a loss to OSU and one somewhere else and who knows what happens in a bowl.
I think having Evans back will be huge, especially for McCaffrey. Look for the return of the vaunted Michigan screen pass!
Fuck them
I was looking at each game prediction percentage last night and it’s mostly agreeable but notable predictions:
PSU/UWiscy at 75% advantage (meh)
Minny/IU at 50/50 (maybe idk)
Rutgers at 20%! (This one I rolled my eyes at)
OSU at 92% seems about right.
I wonder if this is finally the year that IU manages to get a win? That is a really hard schedule.
We should let the scout team play Indiana. Have the starters practice 2 weeks for OSU and rest up.
I am 100% serious.
Maybe to absolve the sins of our past lives and finally beat OSU again, Michigan has to sacrifice a game in the Indiana series.
Or we just finish the regular season with back to back losses.
Unfortunately, we often look off after a bye week so I’m not sure how effective that would be. What we should do is blow out the shit teams and sit the starters in the second half. Getting into dog fights with the army and IU teams of the world really fucks UM late in the season.
I feel like Michigan has dominated the IU series for so long, that IU is due for a win. Just because. Whether they’re the better team or not, they’re just... due. But if they do beat Michigan, it will be the end of the world for the vast majority of fans.
Well we have survived The Horror, Toledo, and Rutgers. I’m not hoping for a loss to Indiana, but I don’t know that it would dethrone any of those 3.....also I may have completely given up on football. We are a hockey school now. Again. Whatever. Fuck it.
I mean... two of those were in the first year with a new coach, one of which was a fluke loss to a team that won the B1G and went to the CFP. So... pretty easy to survive those with your fandom intact.
The other occurred in the final year of the Hoke regime and Rutgers was actually a decent team at that point. Since we were already pissed off and fired the coach at the end of the year anyway, hard to say we survived it.
Given the current temperature of the program and the mixed feelings of the fanbase, losing to a team we have 1 loss to in 40+ seasons would be pretty devastating.
You make some good points, I’ll concede that. Let’s just agree that it would be better if we don’t have to answer the question at all.
By that feeling, can you feel like UM is due a win against OSU?
Yes. I'd trade a "it was due" loss to Indiana for a "it was due" win over Ohio State.
But that’s the reason the Hoosiers are who they are...they play tough with OSU/Michigan every now and then, but can’t find ways to get over the hump.