That's about what I was hearing. $8 million wasn't enough (for him) but $9 million was too much (for the RW).
Great! Now Dylan, lead us to the promised land.
$8MM per is ridiculous money for someone who hasn't sniffed 40 goals.
But with Horvat's contract as a comp, I guess that's what the Wings had to do.
I don’t know what you mean… $8m would be the 50th highest salary in the league. Many ahead of that number aren’t 40+ goal scorers either. Goal scoring is a weird metric to use in judging someone’s value to begin with, but the math doesn’t even check out in your statement.
If gp is like me, then we're just not used to the inflation numbers. If you stopped watching hockey when the wings were last relevant and came back, it's crazy.
Like hearing Daniel Jones wants $40M and might get in the $30M / year range.
Many ahead of that number aren’t 40+ goal scorers either
That's kinda what I wrote.
Go look at Horvat's numbers. Not worth it.
But if you compare Larkin to Horvat, then I see the rationale for this deal.
You also wrote how it’s a ridiculous amount for someone who isn’t a 40 goal scorer. But clearly it’s not ridiculous considering the rest of the contracts. It’s not just Horvat. 7-9 million is completely normal for top 6 forwards.
But clearly it’s not ridiculous considering the rest of the contracts.
Jesus christ I wrote that. Twice for fuck's sake.
I would have been fine trading him and starting over. That’s still first option kind of money for a guy that doesn’t have first option talent. Also, when Forsberg and Horvat got those deals, their teams were much differently situated. I just don’t think the Wings are there yet. So I’d rather get some value for him.
$8.7 would be tied for 37th on the list that I see (by cap hit), tied with Crosby and Patrick Laine (true, some of these contracts are from several years ago).
https://www.capfriendly.com/browse
Of those, 14 are goalies or defensemen so obviously they would not score 40 goals. So Larkin is being paid like a top-23 forward. Is he that? Maybe but this does not seem to be any hometown discount either. Forwards in the 25 to 45 range include Matt Tkachuk, Kucherov, Backstrom, Rantanen, Skinner, Kaprizov, Stamkos, Draisaitl, Zibanejad, F. Forsberg, Aho and B. Wheeler. I have not looked up all of the stats but at least a good portion of those guys have scored 40 or a point per game and have a longer history of performance. So I think it's fair for Larkin to be in that group but it's also fair to ask whether it's a good investment.
$8.7m would be 37th, but he said $8m. Which would be 50th. I know Larkin is making $8.7, but I went with what he said was outrageous.
Wheeler has never scored 30 goals, let alone 40.
Aho has two years where he scored 37 and 38, never topped 30 aside from that.
Forsberg scored 42 last year and got the extension, but was his only season topping 33.
Zibanejad scored 41 once, his 31 this year is his next highest in his career.
Rantanen scored 40 for the first time this season, after he’d already earned that big contract.
Backstrom’s career high is 33, next highest is 23.
Tkachuk scored 42 last year but typically is in the mid 20’s as a goal scorer.
Aside from a few guys who are notorious goal scorers, Larkin generally fits right in. But again, using goals as the basis for how much a player is worth is a silly position to take in the first place.
Larkin is valued at 2.8 wins per season the last two years. This salary values him at 2.2. Good value. LGRW
https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/1631019308464652289?s=20
Agreed. I think it's a market rate deal. Plus he's the captain so I am fine with it.
Larks!! Great news, now let's get our momentum back from last week.
Front weighted. You are hoping the RW are legit in his years 4-8..
The salary breakdown on his new deal is $10 million in year one, $11 million in year two, $10 million in year three, $8 million in years four, five and six, $7.5 million in year seven and $7.1 million in year eight.
NM. Read the page wrong.
in the context of salary cap room, production, continued team growth, is this a good thing? i saw some folks saying larks is really just a 2nd line NHL center. i don't watch nearly enough hockey to have an opinion.
he's a leader. he gets knocked a lot for not being a prolific scorer, keep in mind he's been on a shitty team his entire career.
they could have done worse!
Wings still have a lot of cap room...
...presently $6.2MM for this season, which is good for 4th in the league. For context, league leaders in available in cap space are Buffalo at $17MM for '23 and Arizona at $15MM for '23.
That space is sorely needed, IMHO, as the Wings need a Shanahan-like acquisition to get them over the hump just like in '97. The last 2 games illustrated how soft this team actually is. e.g., one of Ottawa's forwards challenged the entire Detroit bench and Detroit's answer was to give up 12 goals in 2 games with the playoffs on the line. :facepalm:
Here's how Larkin's contract breaks down:
Year AAV Cap hit
2023-24 NTC $8,700,000 $8,700,000
2024-25 NTC $8,700,000 $8,700,000
2025-26 NTC $8,700,000 $8,700,000
2026-27 NTC $8,700,000 $8,700,000
2027-28 NTC $8,700,000 $8,700,000
2028-29 M-NTC $8,700,000 $8,700,000
2029-30 M-NTC $8,700,000 $8,700,000
2030-31 M-NTC $8,700,000 $8,700,000
i saw some folks saying larks is really just a 2nd line NHL center.
It's certainly an interesting debate. Of which I agree with. Larkin's career stats are not top line, elite center. But with the contracts given elsewhere in the league, namely Horvat and Forsberg, Larkin's camp had an argument -- using comps, for this deal.
I don't think the RW are even close to the hump, let alone just a Shanahan-esque acquisition away from getting over said hump.
I like the deal if it's front-loaded, not so much if it's not.
You haven't been paying attention then. This team is very close to being a playoff team.
The Wings have one of the top defensemen in the league. Hronek is top 4 anywhere in the league. Walman has found new life in Detroit and is emerging as an elite 2 way defensman.
The #1 goalie is solid (#2 is a problem).
Rasmussen is developing into a power forward. Raymond, Kubalik, Perron are solid contributors with Veleno and Fabbri possessing potential to take the next step.
Try watching some games some time (you can stream them all from onhockey.tv) instead of being the typical Detroit fan and shitting on myths and cliches.
[edit: my Hronek take didn't age well... he's gone].
I watch games, and I also remember '97. That was a team that had won the Presidents Trophy the year before (but lost in the WCF) and been to the Stanley Cup Finals in 95 (curse the left wing lock). This team hasn't sniffed the playoffs since 2016. If the hump you're referring to is making the playoffs, that's a far different measuring stick than what you said:
"That space is sorely needed, IMHO, as the Wings need a Shanahan-like acquisition to get them over the hump just like in '97."
I do agree with you that the last 2 games shed a pretty bright light on the fact that this team isn't ready for the playoffs yet. I'd rather they be smart sellers at the deadline rather than making a Ken Holland move. Locking up Larkin gives them some cost surety going forward.
I think you and I agree on Larkin, but what do you mean playoff team? Like MAKE the playoffs? Sure, they're close. Do anything other than get bounced right away and maybe win a game or two? I still think they're a ways away.
I’d say on a cup contending team, Larkin would ideally be 2C. He’s obviously a good player, slightly below a point per game, but lacks the elite talent you’d really want on the top line of your cup contending team. Without actually sitting down and making a list, Larkin is probably around the 20th-25th best center in the league.
In terms of cap space, the Wings currently have something like $6.5m in free space. Larkin’s cap hit going up by $2.6 million next year really isn’t much of a factor.
Pretty good guess, cause ESPN polled GMs anonymously on the top 10 centers in the league, and his name didn't come up and 19 other guys did. So ESPN lumped him into a bin from 20-26.
I'd be curious to know across how many teams those 19 were distributed over.
Teams mentioned: Oilers, Leafs, Avalanche, Penguins, Panthers, Lightning, Devils, Bruins, Sabres, Knights, Rangers, Canucks, Hurricanes, Kings, Islanders, Stars.
So I count 16.
When you add the other 7 guys you include:
Wings, Jets, Canadiens.
He's a 1a type...not elite, and not a 1st line guy on a cup contender. But certainly a solid player and a capable 1st line C on many teams.
Not on any Cup contenders. Sorry this is insane money for him and he's not worth it. This is the first decision from Yzerman that is legitimately having me say "WTF."
Finally, it was pissing me off that I kept hearing he wanted too much money from pundits.
He's usually the best player on the ice, really glad they got it done.
Yuge
Thank you for your use of the hyphen.
Now that he's been signed for 8 yrs., he may be more attractive to another team. The last two nights in Ottawa showed how far the team still has to go. The only players I would protect are Seider and Raymond. The team lacks playoff hockey toughness and the defense is lousy. Hronek is a huge defensive liability.
Anything is possible but committing 8 years and NMC first 5 years with Larkin being from Michigan means it's unlikely he gets moved anytime soon. The Wings will not be tanking (hopefully getting better), why would Larkin actively want to leave?
it would be cool if his number could one day be retired. But with how strict the Red Wings are with retiring numbers (no Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Federov) it probably will never happen. Then again, if he wins a cup he might have a case over the guys I mentioned since they played on absolutely stacked teams and Larkin was somewhat of a light in the darkness.
I like the deal. He's the leader of the team and has had back to back great seasons. He just has to stay healthy and Stevie Y needs to start bringing in some elite skill for him to play with. I see them as a group of try hards, who have very little elite skill and almost no ability to stand up for each other, let alone intimidate the opponent. Not really sure what the plan is, but this roster isn't anywhere close to competing with the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference, which is currently loaded. Gotta trust the process though and this is a major piece to lock up and build around.
Barry must be proud.
Trust the Yzerplan..... this team was/is in the conversation about making the playoffs this season.... its been a while since that has been the case!
This team will be in serious contention for a playoff spot next year and will certainly make the post season in the 2024/2025 season if they don't next year.....
Hronek traded!!! I can't believe what Stevie got in return - a first and a second. Wow!
Nice trade. I like it. Good haul.
Top 12 protected. The Islanders pick. Would be 14th right now.
Is it too reductive to say they chose to pay Larkin over him?
Hronek makes $4.4 million. It certainly helps decrease the payroll. I would be furious as a Canucks fan.
Cool!
Go Blue and Go Wings
Now, enough will Ottawa please!
Good job Stevie Y, 8 million dollars is chump change in the sports professional world.
Dylie, Dylie....
(Dilli....Dilli)