Does RR's stockpiling players cause attrition?
disclaimer - this is written in the wake of the panic-inducing McGuffie transfer. It is also speculation.
It is widely thought that Newsome left because RR kept going after QBs after getting his commitment.
While many do not think McNeal left for any reason other than a perceived ill-fit into the system, we have to wonder whether RR's targeting of top 2010 receivers played some part in his decommit.
Now we have McGuffie leaving. This is RAMPANT speculation, but could this be a consequence of chasing too many RBs in the 2009 class? We have a jillion RBs but are signing quite a few more. Could this have scared McG?
On a more positive note, I think I like this style of recruiting by RR. Competition for playing time is always good and should separate the wheat from the chaff. We want guys that will want to come in ready for a fight to get into the game. So, we should get guys with a competitive spirit that have been pushed to excellence by working for the position. It should also avoid situations like our current QB situation, where solid backups were not acquired because we had our golden boy in Mallett and didn't want to scare him off by recruiting.
However, the strategy appears to have some short-term pain. Those that weren't aware of this recruiting style may be turned off/scared of being buried on the depth chart and will transfer or decommit. In the long run, if RR is the genius that I think he is, we will be a team of hungry, talented players that have EARNED playing time and will kick ass.
/panic
Thoughts?
November 18th, 2008 at 1:13 PM ^
I think McGuffie is a result of being extremely homesick, and a self-described difficulty in getting to know new people and places.
November 18th, 2008 at 1:16 PM ^
But at the same time I think transfers/decommits are the result of a number of factors rather than one predominant one...so my theory could still be valid. What do you think of the larger point of my post?
November 18th, 2008 at 1:18 PM ^
Yeah, if he ends up at a Texas school (couldn't you totally see him in Leach's Air Raid offense at Texas Tech?) we'll know it wasn't anything Michigan or RR did, it was something out of our control. It happens.
If he transfers to Cal I'd be a bit more worried.
November 18th, 2008 at 1:24 PM ^
His top 3 were us, USC, and Texas A&M (proximity to home). I wouldn't be shocked to see him at A&M.
If I were a big time player, I'd shy away from Texas Tech - I'm willing to bet money that Leach is outta there by the start of next year.
November 18th, 2008 at 2:33 PM ^
I remember on signing day we had that big scare when he woke up and really wanted to be a Golden Bear, but then remembered he'd helped recruit a lot of guys here.
I wonder what those guys had to say.
Sucks -- He's my girlfriend's favorite player. I don't know HOW I'm gonna get her to watch now. Can the Big Ten contract for Tom Brady butt-shots or something to keep her from asking if we can change the channel, at least until another player as exciting as McGuffie shows up?
November 18th, 2008 at 1:18 PM ^
that mcguffie's actually leaving...
November 18th, 2008 at 1:27 PM ^
In desperate need of some sliver of hope, your opinion on the matter gives me some. I don't know who the hell you are or what your connection to the team is, but your opinion on player matters is significant.
Naturally, I REALLY wish Tom VanHaaren wasn't the one reporting it.
November 18th, 2008 at 1:28 PM ^
Or just a feeling?
November 18th, 2008 at 1:33 PM ^
I can't speak for him, but, you look at a kid who we know had been homesick, and we know he's been hurt. He just had a consussion, which can often cause a few weeks of depression. At around the time he asked to transfer, he received news that his grandmother died. Add on that the weather just turned shitty, which is probably a shock for a Texan in his first Michigan winter, and you have the perfect storm of shittiness for this kid. Is it possible that this is a knee-jerk reaction? Absolutely. I'm not saying it is, or that I have insight.
November 18th, 2008 at 2:35 PM ^
he's still on the team. whether he'll stay on the team is another matter entirely
November 18th, 2008 at 1:25 PM ^
was homesick from day one here. Sucks that he is leaving, but he was the starter for a larger part of the year as a true freshman, so in his case, I don't think depth chart was an issue at all.
However, I do think it will turn some kids off. It doesn't seem to bother the guys at USC too much though(other than the kid who transferred to Florida). They have five stars sittng behind 5 stars a year older than them.
November 18th, 2008 at 1:27 PM ^
is that we aren't good enough (yet) to employ this style of recruiting.
November 18th, 2008 at 2:36 PM ^
Matt Cassel is starting for the Patriots after not playing at USC.
November 18th, 2008 at 1:43 PM ^
I don't think stockpiling is a bad thing. Look at USC. They have I think 3 5-star running backs on their roster, each of whom would start at almost any other school. Same thing with QB's, a la Matt Cassell and likely Mitch Mustain.
If too many good players scares one of them away (and I'm not saying this is the case with McG) then the one leaving is usually the one who wasn't going to play. Big time recruits bust at every position. If we stock pile big time recruits, we have a much better chance that we find one who makes it. Not a bad problem to have.
November 18th, 2008 at 1:27 PM ^
Right - and it's entirely possible that Babb and Chambers just didn't want to bust their ass anymore and watch the team from the sideline. They were in a position where younger kids were ahead of them on the depth chart - not surprising.
November 18th, 2008 at 1:50 PM ^
stockpiling maybe a bad thing... if you're losing like we are. but if you're winning like USC you probably won't care as much since you're a contender.
November 18th, 2008 at 1:51 PM ^
This kid must be a nervous wreck. Indecisive. Unsure of those around him. Unsure of himself. And on top of all of that, feeling the immense pressure of putting himself in the position to secure his future. This year certainly couldn't have helped, and the climate around our team is a far cry from what he expected coming aboard.
Think back to signing day-- remember the stories of teammates saying how he just holed up and wouldn't go to school, wouldn't answer the phone, just freaked out over the decision. Think of the average 18-yr old, and how frustrated they can get just trying to decide what to order on the Taco Bell menu...
On the other hand-- think of SO MANY other student athletes who walked into the HC's office intending to leave. There's a MOUNTAIN of names I can think of here, but the one that seems most fitting: Chris Perry. Granted, the man sitting on the other side of the desk was not at all like the one there now...
But maybe this will be one of those stories where the kid sticks it out. SURE HOPE it will be one of those stories where the kid sticks it out.
November 18th, 2008 at 1:55 PM ^
also mentioned how much he hated the youtube highlights of him, too.
November 18th, 2008 at 1:58 PM ^
isn't it almost better to have the kid leave? I mean this in the least derogatory way possible - once a player is skeptical of the team/coach or not willing to go the extra mile or whatever, aren't they going to be a liability no matter their level of talent? To be even more clear, I think McG is a future star and I don't want him gone at all, but if he feels the way he does, maybe he should just go...
November 18th, 2008 at 2:35 PM ^
someone explain to me how stockpiling a lot of talent is EVER a bad thing? Everything else being equal, if a coach can recruit a 5* instead of a 3*, he would be doing his team and himself a disservice in signing the 3*.
A starter is not leaving because of a 5* getting signed in a class behind them. A guy buried on the depth chart is alway a threat to transfer if they can't get themselves to the top of the depth chart, regardless of the number of stars associated with the other players.
But with McG, chitown's theory (homesickness, iinjuries, concussion, death in the family, terrible weather) makes much more sense than McG was worried about other guys on the depth chart he started in front of.
November 18th, 2008 at 3:35 PM ^
I'm not sure I understand the idea of "stockpiling." I mean, isn't that every coach's goal - to get as much talent on the team as possible? I don't see how this is different from USC or Texas or Toledo or GVSU. So why would Rodriguez's stockpiling be different than any of those other coaches'?
Another word for "stockpiling" is "depth."
November 18th, 2008 at 3:41 PM ^
It is when you land a good commit (e.g. Newsome), then start going after several other players with similar strengths at the same position. Many coaches would take Newsome then not look for other Newsome clones for fear of scaring off Newsome and/or showing that maybe he's not the "guy." These are high school kids and want to feel important-like they are the only one that counts. I agree with RR's strategy in the long run but concede that it may have short term implications.
I view depth as having other viable options in a position through recruiting in later years or getting players that are flexible and could make an easy position switch.
November 18th, 2008 at 3:51 PM ^
newsome. at all. he committed then didn't talk to anyone on the coaching staff until he left RR a voicemail saying he was de-committing.
November 18th, 2008 at 4:39 PM ^
but I trust your sources over whatever article I read. It was just being used as an example to make a point, anyway.
November 19th, 2008 at 10:25 AM ^
There was a fair amount of "chicken or the egg" in this situation. Did Michigan keep recruiting other QB's because Newsome waivered, or did Newsome waiver because Michigan kept recruiting other QB's?
November 19th, 2008 at 1:07 AM ^
And I know for a fact that us pursuing other WR's had nothing to do with Bryce McNeal, not even close. He has an ego, he thinks he's the best anyway.
November 19th, 2008 at 10:17 AM ^
If a recruit is scared off by other better recruits, don't you want the better recruits?
While Newsome isn't a perfect example, let's assume for this argument that he was scared off by other recruits. Those other recruits (Forcier and Beaver) all happen to be equally graded by the recruiting services. So are you concerned that stockpiling a negative when a coach adds one or more equally graded QBs for the original QB? how does that hurt the program.
And let's remember the set of events that led to the John Navarre experiment. Carr agreed not to recruit other QBs in Henson's class or the following class. We are left with a massive void at QB following Henson's early departure for the Yankees farm system. This void forces Navarre to start at least one year before he is ready.