College Football Nerds Preview The Game

Submitted by mjw on November 23rd, 2021 at 7:52 AM

Didn't see it posted yet.  Their model has it at OSU 37 - M 30. 

They pick it OSU 38 - M 24 (Daniel) and OSU 34 - M 31 (Josh).

 

Perkis-Size Me

November 23rd, 2021 at 8:47 AM ^

I'd be extremely impressed if Michigan can keep it that close. If they can take this OSU team deep into the fourth quarter and be within a score, that speaks volumes about how far they've come. 

If they can do that, all they need is for someone to make one play to possibly flip the game. 

M-Dog

November 23rd, 2021 at 8:49 AM ^

If any of these predictions are in the ballpark, life is good.  It would be great to win, but if we don't and the game is this competitive, we are a lock for the Rose Bowl with the wind in our sails.

We will look like a viable program for the first time in half a decade to recruits (and Portal transfers).

HAIL 2 VICTORS

November 23rd, 2021 at 9:53 AM ^

M-Dog I appreciate you as a poster and contributor to this board for a long time.  If we lose another close one at home considering the low expectations (by Michigan standards) we had coming into the season after last years COVID debacle...I will punch you in the face out of frustration for your optimism. 

I would set Charles Swindoll on fire if M loses another close game this year.

 

Beat Rutgerland

November 23rd, 2021 at 10:21 AM ^

I think the open question about this game is: has OSU taken the whole season to get to this point and they are now an offensive juggernaut, or is MSU's pass defense just that bad?

 

If it's the latter, there's no particular reason the game couldn't be close, OSU hasn't looked its usual self for most of the season, Michigan has competent QB play for the first time in awhile, and the current defensive scheme isn't as easily exploitable as the old Don Brown regime.

 

We'll see. It's not indicative of the team of course, but I do like that the OSU fans seem extremely confident that they're going to beat us by 40. Urban Meyer obviously never took this game for granted, but we don't know yet if Day will consistently have his team equally prepared and have excellent gameplans out of his coaching staff.

Onas

November 23rd, 2021 at 10:58 AM ^

Teams OSU has blown out this year: Akron, Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, Purdue, and Michigan State.

Teams OSU has not blown out: Minnesota, Oregon, Tulsa (it was a 7-pt game late in the 4Q), Penn State, Nebraska

I don't expect a Michigan win, but I think that the blowouts of Purdue (who, as I read, took a big risk playing man defense for this one) and Michigan State (the #130 worst pass defense) are inflating people's perception of the Buckeyes a bit. 

A 7-10 point OSU victory feels correct. And, if a few bounces go our way Michigan could pull the upset.

Bucknutz36

November 23rd, 2021 at 5:05 PM ^

You may as well pretend those first 3 games never happened, because they are a night and day different football team from then.  Stroud was playing his first games ever, and they literally ran a different defensive scheme under a different DC.  While I don't think the OSU D is elite by any means, the difference between now and when they played MN, Tulsa and Oregon is almost unexplainable.  The only chance you have to beat OSU is if your coaches can design a defense to confuse OSU.  Nebraska and PSU did somehow.  You'll pretty much know whether or not that's the case halfway through the 1st quarter.  If you guys get a few early stops, that bodes well for the entire game.  If OSU scores on their first few drives, it will never stop.  

Eng1980

November 23rd, 2021 at 11:38 AM ^

Massey has OSU 34 Michigan 31.  What it all means is that Michigan can win with a few breaks.  A few proper OSU holding calls, +1/2 in turnovers, maybe a Hutchinson strip sack pickup fumble for a TD, maybe a Dax Hill pick (Gray or Turner?), maybe the LBs play their best game of the year.

OSU does have the better team and is favored for a reason BUT some of their stats are better than Michigan's because their backups are starters on most teams.  Fortunately for Michigan, OSU can only put 11 on the field at a time (unless the refs screw that up also.) 

How sweet would it be for Gray to be the hero on Saturday?

wildbackdunesman

November 28th, 2021 at 9:05 PM ^

Why didn't they pick Michigan?  They themselves said the FEI ratings were:

Ohio State's #1 Offense against Michigan's #6 Defense = Close

Michigan's #6 Offense against Ohio State's #39 Defense = Clear Advantage