Bill Connelly moves to ESPN and discusses M and others title chances
Bill Connelly, formerly of SB Nation and S&P metric fame, has moved to ESPN. Bill as many of you know, is a very knowledgeable writer grounded in data and has been quoted by Mgoblog often. This is news in itself, but here in his first article is a partial excerpt where he discusses how M can win the title, along with another 15 schools that he thinks have a shot. He frames each as an "if" the team can do this they can win it all:
"If ... Josh Gattis brings some pep and unpredictability to Ann Arbor. Jim Harbaugh hired offensive coordinator Josh Gattis from Alabama to clean off the rust and ossification that had beset the Michigan attack at times. The Wolverines were both predictable (22nd in standard downs run rate) and plodding (123rd in adjusted pace). And despite their run-heavy approach, the Wolverines couldn't actually run the ball all that well. They were 84th in rushing marginal efficiency, and in three losses Michigan backs averaged just 3.8 yards per carry."
The other if's were "if blitz downs are less all-or-nothing," "if Shea Patterson finds a #1 receiver," and "if the Big House does its part."
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27046211/how-top-cfb-contender-win-national-title#Michigan
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If Gattis can bring some Pep?
Why would he bring the very thing he was sent to destroy?
Pep Hamilton was ironic; like a large fat guy being called tiny.
Obiwan.gif
Does Gattis have the high ground is the real question.
Big X-factor also is finding a RB to emerge.
Also need to get good pass-rush, and Don Brown needs to have his defense better excel in big games.
All 3 phases have to excel in big games. It can't just be the defense holding up the offense (2016 and 2017). We'll see how much the offense has improved...I believe it will be dramatically better. Also, no more punting or other special teams disasters in big games. No more having gunners when the other team has an 11 man rush and no more punt blocks returned for TD.
Off topic, but why does basketball not have a Matty Dudek type that coordinates events, recruiting and hypes up things? Seems like that would go a long way with the new staff and hyping up the program
Probably because their operating budget doesn’t support it, and the few recruits don’t require it.
Because basketball doesn't recruit 75 kids each cycle.
Don't disagree much, though I do take issue with the blitzing numbers a bit because they rely heavily on OSU and Florida. While OSU I get as being relevant, the defense they trotted out against Florida wasn't a fair estimation of the one that had been on the field for most of the year.
Still, it's a team that has the talent to compete with basically anyone, they just need to be able to move the ball more effectively in the air. I think the "they ran a lot on first down, which made them predictable, but if they threw all the time on first down that means they're unpredictable" is a bit of a misnomer, but toward the end of the year the offense couldn't get downfield quickly and couldn't exploit the speed and elusiveness they did have in the backfield (in particular Evans as a receiver). Gattis seems like a guy who will exploit that, and my guess is the offense overall benefits as a result.
That's a lot of if's.
There always are. Except for Clemson
Unfortunately, we don't have the OL or DL to compete for the title. If we were among the nation's best in one of those two areas, we might have a shot. I think what's also quite unfortunate is how boring the college football championship has become. For whatever reason, it's basically two teams that have the all the spoils, and no one else really challenging. CF misses a dominant USC and another great team out west, Texas, Washington, Oregon, etc, and misses dominating teams from FSU and Miami to bring some balance to the ACC. The Big 10 hasn't really shown a spark for years, except the one OSU blip on the radar, and doesn't look to anytime soon. This just isn't the landscape of my youth, where literally 15 different teams might win it in a given year. That mystery was much more entertaining.
I read somewhere that IF we score more points than the other teams, we could potentially win!
I think a good portion of the passing problems were due to OL line issues, some schematic, some due to personnel playing out of position/talent level. That will take an incremental step forward this year due to experience, but without time to throw the ball, whatever playmaker evolves at receiver will have to make 7 into 20+
The OL issue is overblown IMO. Clemson OL is probably worse than Michigan but they were able to produce just fine because they have good scheme, QB, RB and WRs.
Not sure why he's acting as if the bowl games matter. Outside of the playoffs and championship games, I feel like the bowl games are probably the least statistically significant games on the schedule thanks to people resting for the draft, etc.
I thought the problem with the run game was the lack of movement pre-snap and misdirection post-snap. I would get a seizure watching Matt Canada's offense last year; tons of movement pre-snap. It's easy to stop the run game when the offense, save for one or two guys, are static for 20+ seconds. Now that we have a true college OC to complement Don Brown, I think the offense will be much harder to defend.
We aren't winning a championship if our defense doesn't reload and play up to its usual standards. We lost a lot of production on that side of the ball, and d-line in particular looks thin.
Going from 10-3 with an ass beating like the OSU game to "national championship" is way too much to expect. If Michigan makes it to the playoffs that would be amazing, but I'm just hoping that we win the East this year.
If Michigan made it to the playoffs I would be over the moon, but aside from maybe one or two programs, that really isn't a realistic expectation for any fanbase to hold. We've been in the hunt for the Big Ten Championship every year under Harbaugh, and we've been foiled by one particular team each time. That's where I'm the most anxious, and any other success really ought to follow quite naturally from that goal.
We lost a lot more production from 2016 to 2017 and the defense held up fine. If not for the anemic offense (due to multiple injuries to the QB position), the team probably finishes 10-3 instead of 8-5.
His fourth IF basically said we have to leave BPONE at the tailgate.
is this billy conigliaro
If wishes were Bentleys then hobos would drive.
Did I get that right?
Donna Brown getting called out for her bad blitz schemes
If the Big House does its part?
yep, that’s been the real culprit that’s been holding us back. It’s those damn fair weather fans that can’t be bothered to stand up during the games and yell at anyone who does. If only our fans were more fanatical.
Well now you know what must be done.
This 2019 team is elite in every respect. Natty for sure once Gattis gets this potent offense scoring 30+/game.