Bill Connelly's SP+ returning production
https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1412542623152287755
Bill Connelly posted his returning production stats, which is generally done by percentages (e.g, % of returning receiving yards, etc.). Not totally sure how things OL returners work. Ideally it'd be number of snaps but maybe it's games? I know he had these at the end of last season but a lot has changed with transfers and what not. Transfer production counts, which seems less reliable.
Obviously rates are higher than past years because of the freebie year. The typical national average is 62.6% and the average in 2021 is 76.7%!
Michigan is ranked 57th at 78%.
B1G rankings:
Rutgers 92%
Minnesota 89%
Maryland 85%
Wisconsin 84%
Indiana and Illinois 83%
Penn State 79%
Purdue, MSU, Nebraska 74%
Iowa 71%
Ohio State 51%
Northwestern 39%
I don't have too many thoughts except that Michigan is in a pretty good position. Like usual, some of the top programs are at the bottom, like OSU, but Connelly says they'll probably still be top 6 preseason when factoring in his other criteria. Still, they could be more vulnerable than in past years because I don't think they usually get hit this hard relative to other programs. Northwestern had a good season last year when they came in number 1 in this stat, but this year they may be absolutely terrible without the recruiting like OSU to make up for it.
The factor not being considered here is that Ohio State's reload percentage is 942%.
Don't worry. You'll see that reflected in his preseason rankings when they'll be ranked top 5 probably.
FWIW, OSU was 93rd last year with 56% production returning. I don't know who they lost from last year besides Fields. Hopefully there's a dropoff at QB.
Michigan was 125th last year at 43%...
OSU had 10 players picked in the draft, including two offensive linemen and a starting corner. And Fields was a huge part of their offense (Trey Sermon picking up about 600 yards in 3 games was a lot of NW being bad at tackling him), so his absence will be felt. Of course they'll just replace him with someone else who'll be impossible to stop.
"Of course they'll just replace him with someone else who'll be impossible to stop."
That's a given.
You're both speaking of Treveyon Henderson.
I can't fathom that MSU is at 74%. I heard they have 47 new players on their roster. I think Bill needs to adjust for transfers but I don't know how.
Someone who started for the MAC but transfers to the B10, should they count toward returning production?
Yeah not sure how that works. If Milton had stayed and we still got Bowman, Michigan would have over 100% of their returning QB production.
"As well as possible, yes. When your team adds a transfer, I add the new player's production to both the team's numerator and denominator."
https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/30801130/which-college-football-teams-return-most-production-2021
Seems like the only way to do it really. I can't blame him for the paywall at all, but it's too bad because I almost never read ESPN before and I'm not gonna pay just to read him. Thanks for that tidbit.
Fwiw, many Verizon plans include Disney bundles as a perk. Aside from Disney+ streaming...you also get access to ESPN+ with your plan. Worth checking out if that applies.
Even with Milton leaving and Bowman coming in we return over 100% of our QB production from last year. Bowman had more yards and TDs.
You can't be over 100% in his formula since returning production is capped at 100%. Adding x to both the numerator and denominator would still be 100%. In this case (only passing yards are included in the calculation and I'm not adjusting for sack yardage) you have [425 (McNamara) + 1602 (Bowman)] / [1502 (Michigan total) + 1602 (Bowman)] or 2027/3104=65.3%.
I also think these stats aren't normalized. Like, MSU's top 2 returning rushers had basically 400 yards total; Haskins had 375 by himself. Zach Charbonnet leaving makes it look like UM had a decent chunk of "production" leaving even though we're talking about one huge run on his first carry of the year and then nothing much else.
For reference, last year UM was in the bottom 10 in terms of returning production.
I think Rutgers makes a bowl game this year, especially since the defense will likely be a bit better since that's Schiano's strength.
I think OSU will take a small step back at QB but will likely be so terrifying elsewhere it won't functionally matter. I will say generally that given how disjointed the season was last year "returning production" is going to be extra wonky because of smaller sample sizes.
I remember reading in John Bacon's 4th Qtr book that Fitzgerald focus on guys who will redshirt and stay 5 years. Looking at his record he's done great job especially given the limitations of Northwestern but there is an up and down pattern (3 ten win seasons and 4 losing seasons in the last decade). I assume that if he has a small or disappointing group of 4th year and redshirt senior players that accounts for some of the down years.
Dantonio made a living with getting Ohio plan B tressel guys, and that played as 5th year seniors.... man strength vs kids still growing. Bo did this too.
Harbaugh's teams are excellent, when he has a high performing QB... and I like this QB room. Loving the future here.
I was watching the highlights of the 2018 Wisconsin game and Fowler commented how the coaches loved their QB room with Patterson, McCaffrey, Peters, and Milton. I'm at the point with this program where I'm not buying hope anymore.
Lol.
This reminds me of the "Moneyball" quote: "if he's a good hitter, why doesn't hit good." A bunch of guys who look the part and have potential, but don't actually play the position particularly well (certainly fit Peters and Milton).
More importantly, his teams are excellent when they have at least two decent corner backs.
Unless they change the rules to make killing clock actually count on the scoreboard, our QB is going to top out at mediocre regardless of skill level.
Harbaugh's teams are excellent, when he has a high performing QB
You mean when he had Jedd Fisch?
What do you mean that Michigan is in a "pretty good position?" A pretty good position for what?
Just that they're a little above average in returning production.
Michigan is also ahead of most of the schools that recruit at our level or better.
So, they're middle of the road in returning production from a team that was very bad. Doesn't seem particularly enthusing, but okay.
I said "pretty good". I wasn't talking about how this sets them up for a national championship run. Also, if you bothered to look, you'd see the better programs are, the more they tend toward the bottom of these rankings because they get better recruits who are more likely to leave early. There are barely any P5 programs in the top 25. So yes, given Michigan's recruiting, being a little above average in this metric is pretty good. They were right near the bottom in returning production last year and that, combined with key injuries and opt-outs, led to a terrible season.
Well, another metric is recruiting rankings. According to that UM would be either #2 or #3 in the B1G. I'd be shocked if UM finished in the top 3 in the B1G in 2021. Obviously returning production, recruiting, and coaching all have a role.