Bill Connelly's returning production stat
Bill Connelly released his returning production stat for 2022. It's insider content, so I won't just copy and paste. It does incorporate transfers as well. Unsurprisingly, the better teams tend to lose more. For example, Georgia is 96th (out of 131). Last year was weird because there was so much more returning production than usual. It's basically back to normal this year. I'll just talk about a few teams I found interesting for various reasons.
Michigan is 67th (13th on offense, 124th on defense) I'll talk about them below.
Staee is 42nd (70th O, 23rd D) I have no idea who they retain or transfer in, but that's pretty good.
PSU is 72nd (51st O, 103rd D)
And OSU is...24th (53rd O, 13th D) Yikes. From what I've seen of these rankings the last couple years, it's really rare for a team that good to be that high in this stat. They're definitely one of the favorites to win it all next year.
Iowa is 28th. They should be favorites in the west after already winning it last year and returning a lot. Connelly himself though notes that it's really a measure of quantity and not quality that's returning, specifically referring to the QB position, which, yeah.
Iowa State is 128th. Assuming Harbaugh doesn't leave for the NFL next year, we're probably done with Matt Campbell talk. However, it'll still be interesting to see how they do. I wasn't down on him for not winning conference championships at Iowa State, but if he's actually built a good solid program they shouldn't be abysmal next year.
Cincinnati is 92nd. Similar story with Iowa State. Can they sustain success?
BYU is 2nd. I've always kinda liked BYU even though I'm not religious at all. They're just kind of a unique program. They were 10-3 last year and 46th in SP+. It'll be interesting to see how good they can be. Their schedule even looks tough enough to make the playoffs if they run the table (Baylor, at Oregon, Notre Dame in Vegas, Arkansas, and other teams that aren't pushovers).
In regards to Michigan, it's basically as one would expect. However, there may be some reasons for an optimistic take. First, I'm pretty sure it doesn't account for Bell at all. So we have the 13th most returning production PLUS our best WR. Also, losing 2-year starter Vincent Gray looks like a significant loss according to this measure, but there's a very good chance we'll be better at that position. I also think we can replace Ross adequately enough. Ross just never got comfortable playing zones against the pass. Losing Hutchinson, Hinton, and Ojabo really hurts though. I thought last year was the year the offense would finally have to carry the team, but the defense was still better. That almost surely can't continue next year though if Michigan hopes to not have a significant drop-off.
Full SP+ rankings should be out soon.
February 9th, 2022 at 4:15 AM ^
Don't forget about Dax.
February 9th, 2022 at 4:37 AM ^
Yes. I didn't wanna go over every loss and possible replacement, but yeah that's big of course. Should have mentioned him.
February 9th, 2022 at 10:10 AM ^
Dax was a Swiss Army Knife, playing nickel and occasionally safety when we went 4-3.
He was also the #1 backfield blitzer. Because of his versatility I'd say he is as big a loss as just about anybody not named Aidan.
Brad Hawkins will be missed for his leadership and experience too but safety should be ok.
February 9th, 2022 at 5:33 AM ^
Summary for those without access: returning production has predictive value. If last year's results are regressed to the mean for a teams stats, more returning production predicts better relative performance the next year.
The equation uses percentage weights for returning position group player's stats, e.g. percent of WR/TE yards returning. Defensive secondary stats have more predictive value than defensive fronts. On average, it's better to return more in the secondary than up front.
Michigan may be an outlier here given generational talents at edge.
February 9th, 2022 at 6:23 AM ^
Next man up.
February 9th, 2022 at 9:00 AM ^
That's what she said
February 9th, 2022 at 6:24 AM ^
With these metrics I am interested in the actual outcomes. How did the 76th ranked team do last year? The 42nd? 1st? Etc.
I am one who feels we will be okay with loss to addition ratio next year. Ojabo, Hutch and Dax are losses but the back four could be better and probably the back 7. I’m not sure Hinton is a big loss with what’s available. The O could be vastly improved. If Jay stays on special teams, they will be, uh, special.
Go Blue!
February 9th, 2022 at 6:42 AM ^
Even if the back four is better - which is a huge if - I don’t expect them to have as good a year. It cannot be overstated how important an elite pass rush is to a secondary. The difference between a sack and long completion can be a second. The Hutchinson/Ojabo duo wasn’t a normal pass rush. It was the best we’ve ever seen at Michigan.
Which is exactly why what we return on offense is so important. We need to see the best Michigan offense of most of our lives if we want to have the type of season we hope for. They have many of the pieces, they just need to put it all together.
February 9th, 2022 at 7:44 AM ^
Bottom line, nobody has a clue what's gonna be better or worse. Where did everyone see Ojabo going into last year? I know this, NOBODY saw where he actually ended up. And if he never reaches that level, how effective is Hutchinson if offenses can focus on trying to stop him? So I say let's just wait and see what happens. Couple all the unknowns about players with the unknowns of a new DC (regardless of system, he'll have his own ways) and nobody really has any idea how this is gonna go.
February 9th, 2022 at 8:52 AM ^
And new DL coach with long- established success at a Blue blood program. He will have work to do but has the experience to get it done.
February 9th, 2022 at 9:35 AM ^
Something interesting about that. Elston was dline coach under Clark Lea for 3 years at Notre Dame. Clark Lea is Vandy's head coach. How much influence will be in Minter's defense? Space Coyote (I believe) was saying on Twitter that much of what was ran last year in Nashville is from Lea, not Baltimore. There's just no way of knowing what this defense will look like right now unless you happen to be Jesse Minter himself. And even then, how much does he know about his personnel at this point?
February 9th, 2022 at 12:35 PM ^
You’re basically saying that we should never opine on anything unless we have 100% information. I hate to break it to you, but the internet is built at least in part on taking the opposite approach. Sports blog discussions may not be your thing.
I am pretty sure that we all are aware that we don’t definitively know how the season will go, but we certainly do have “clues”.
February 9th, 2022 at 9:28 AM ^
This. The idea that people have that the secondary is going to be better overall seems crazy to me. Yes end of year Will Johnson might be better than Vincent Gray but he's not going to be better five games into the year just because he has more athletic talent. And the secondary will have guard guys longer, and we are absolutely going to have more mistakes at safety than the rock solid senior and 5 star do everything 3rd round nfl draft pick. Going into the year the defense expectations are going to be:
2022 ends<<<<Hutchinson and Ojabo
2022 interior line=Hinton and Smith (and this is optimistic that more depth and development from Mazi can equal Hinton)
2022 linebackers>2021 linebackers (things never really clicked for Ross)
2022 CB's>2021 CB's (I wouldn't be surprised if their play looks worse because the line is getting less pressure even if they are playing better)
2022 safeties<<Hawkins and Dax (you can't just replace what Dax's physical talent let the rest of the defense do when worrying about plays to the edge and covering a slot, etc.)
I think people are vastly underrating the impact two first round defensive ends has on your entire defense and how impossible that is for this team to replace. Even if they replace that pressure through exotic blitzes those blitzes leave you exposed in a way just having your end win doesn't. There is almost no way the defense isn't worse next year. The only question is how much do they fall off by and does the offense step up enough to make up for it.
February 9th, 2022 at 10:18 AM ^
"Yes end of year Will Johnson might be better than Vincent Gray but he's not going to be better five games into the year just because he has more athletic talent"
Michigan's nonconference schedule is really weak anyway so that's fine. But Will Johnson isn't just a physical talent. He's enrolling early and his dad played CB in the NFL, so he's been getting coached on playing CB since he was a little kid probably.
February 9th, 2022 at 1:07 PM ^
I get your thoughts. I don't believe losing Hinton will be a loss. Jenkins will be as capable of holding the line as well as Hinton. Mazi will be a beast. He will break out. That alone will help someone like Harrell and blitzes in passing downs. I am still confident in McGregor, he is finally healthy and full strength. Moore and Moten will be very good in the safety position. When a NB is needed, the biggest concern will be whether Paige has developed enough to allow Moore into that Dax-like role. Overall drop off but adequate. Turner will be a close to lock down corner with Clink still working with him. The biggest question is who replaces Green/Gray. Green could fill the role but I am hoping a younger player shows up. Linebacker will be as good or better. Colson is a star in the making.
They lost great players and there will be a drop in overall talent but these are well coached 4 star players. As long as injuries don't decimate the back end, this is a talented defense.
February 9th, 2022 at 1:59 PM ^
Jim's history shows a coach much more reliant on defense to produce a good season than offense. It's fairly safe to say as the defense goes, so goes his record. There has been two exceptions to that in his 11 year career at Stanford and Michigan (2009 & 2017). 2009 he had the benefit of Andrew Luck. 2017 he had the unfortunate QB trio situation which pushed the offense off a cliff.
Here are his records and the Football Outsiders ranking of Offense and Defense for each season. The trend is pretty clear.
February 9th, 2022 at 4:11 PM ^
I appreciate the data/informative post, but I do not think that those numbers support your overall point.
February 9th, 2022 at 9:27 AM ^
Bill C addresses this a little bit in his article. The quick summary is that teams toward the very top will see a pretty good jump in SP+ while teams toward the very bottom will have a significant drop. An example from last year is Northwestern, who was 130th in returning production and we saw how that turned out for them. Bottom line seems to be that if you are in the top 20 or bottom 20 you have reason for optimism or concern. Everyone else it may be too hard to draw any big conclusion.
February 9th, 2022 at 10:33 AM ^
He talks about that. He says about 8% of teams return at least 80% of overall production each year. On average, they improve by 5.8 points on SP+. So last year, that would move the 20th team to 7th, and the 40th team to 15th.
February 9th, 2022 at 7:13 AM ^
Thanks for posting the info and your thoughts.
February 9th, 2022 at 7:38 AM ^
Yikes. OSU returning production is scary as hell. Would not shock me if they win it all.
February 9th, 2022 at 7:52 AM ^
eh, they're not too scary. lost two all-world receivers. defense had no identity and could get pushed around. forgot how to run the ball in important games. Lots of talent, sure - but we'll start to see this year and next what kind of coach Day really is. You can scheme all you want but if your teams aren't tough, they're not gonna win shit.
February 9th, 2022 at 8:11 AM ^
It always blows my mind that they consistently abandon the run in close games, even when it is working.
February 9th, 2022 at 9:37 AM ^
Yeah it was crazy they went away from Henderson. Those WRs bailed out Day's horrible game planning and play calling.
February 9th, 2022 at 8:32 AM ^
They lost some great talent but are replacing it with great talent. Another year in the system for their QB. Crazy good RB. Their offense is still a death star
And their defense will be much better, they got a way better coordinator and we all saw how quick it can turn around when you upgrade coordinators
February 9th, 2022 at 11:22 AM ^
Their offense might end up being the best in the country. Yeah, they lost a couple of 1st round receivers but if you watched the Rose Bowl, their replacements are excellent. I don't think any of us are questioning their offensive firepower.
It's their defense that is the huge question mark. They basically gutted their defensive staff and were extremely young as I've read that 14 (out of 22) from their 2021 2-deep defensive unit were from their 2020 and 2021 recruiting classes and it showed - we weren't the only ones that drilled that unit. They sucked at best.
But their biggest advantage next year ? Living in Delaware Ohio, I can tell you that is one POd football team / program. They finished 11-2 with a Rose Bowl win but almost every OSU fan I know considers 2021 a total failure. That will be one loud stadium next November but with our returning offense we have a chance
February 9th, 2022 at 8:55 AM ^
New DC in town. I don't think we are going to push them around next year.
Not to mention we lost the biggest club we had in Haskins.
Like every year, I want The Game to be competitive and show we belong amongst the elite, which is what OSU is.
February 9th, 2022 at 9:08 AM ^
I think with edwards and corum returning we'll be set at the RB position. Haskins was incredible last season of course.
February 9th, 2022 at 9:20 AM ^
I'm not sure Knowles is the right fit for them. Personality wise, he's kind of a flake, which meshed well with the "I'm a man, I'm 40" guy. Day is wound pretty tight, so there could be some friction there.
February 9th, 2022 at 10:21 AM ^
I don't think Day is wound as tight as you think he is.
("Inconceivable!")
February 9th, 2022 at 9:36 AM ^
They also returned the guy who was the best receiver of the three, having nothing but 5 stars behind them too and a QB in his second year. Any non-Michigan homer is going to have them as a top 4 team and the favorites for the Big Ten. It doesn't mean things can't fall apart and Michigan can't win, but just lying to ourselves to say they won't likely be one of the best teams in the country and almost certainly an elite offense isn't helpful.
February 9th, 2022 at 10:06 AM ^
And we return our top receiver who wasn't available at all last year with the exception of part of one game. And we likely will be upgrading our QB's ceiling by a lot if JJ earns the job. OSU is always loaded on both sides of the ball, but we will see if they can put it all together. We will likely have an elite offense too, so I like our chances.
February 9th, 2022 at 10:59 AM ^
You say OSU is always loaded on both sides of the ball like it hasn't resulted in wins for them. They are always loaded and that has resulted in them being one of the 3 best teams over the last 15 years pretty consistently and beaten us 13 of 15 times. That isn't exactly a comforting thought. Its like saying Saban hasn't outperformed his recruiting rankings in a decade. Its technically true, but only because they are 1st and its impossible to be higher.
February 9th, 2022 at 9:51 AM ^
They gotta win the B1G first!
February 9th, 2022 at 12:07 PM ^
I also think these ratings gave them a hit for losing potentially two first round draft picks at wide receiver - but they will more than likely not miss a beat with the guys replacing them.
February 9th, 2022 at 7:41 AM ^
My thinking is the defense will struggle a bit to start the season particularly against strong running teams (thank god we don't play Wiscy), but our Offense should be absolutely bonkers. The other thing to keep in mind though is the schedule. We seem to have a very soft schedule next year. This should help the D get its footing, I think.
February 9th, 2022 at 11:53 AM ^
Yeah, if you add fantastic potential QB play from two sources to a ton of promising incoming talent, the offense--win and lose--should really be entertaining.
It's fascinating to reflect that Gattis would have walked away from that. Since there has been so much uninformed speculation, I'd just like to add mine: He had a sense that he wasn't really going to get crazy with it/run it all by himself.
February 9th, 2022 at 8:24 AM ^
“Quantity and not quality” could be said about OSU’s 13th ranking on defense. That D left much to be desired: whether that was coaching/scheme, or whether the players won’t be living up to their recruiting rankings remains to be seen, but it seems premature to draw any conclusions about what that D will be like this coming year.
February 9th, 2022 at 8:36 AM ^
You could say the same thing about our defense last year.
We had the pieces, or at least some of them...but they were horrible in 2020.
We got a new DC (like OSU did)...returned everyone, and look at what happened.
We had our cornerstones early in Hutch, Ross and Dax. Plus Hawkins as Steady Eddy. They held it down until Smith, Hinton, Ojabo, Colson, Turner and Moore started to come into their own.
OSU is in a very similar position. Their defense will be much improved, no question.
February 9th, 2022 at 8:42 AM ^
Not really, a 2-4 year was a small sample size compared to the whole season we saw of OSU's defense.
February 9th, 2022 at 8:50 AM ^
You needed to see more of that 2-4 defense to know if it was terrible or not?
Stop it.
That defense was boo boo. You know it, I know it, the rest of the board knows it.
Day really would've hung 50 (or whatever number he picked) on it.
Thankfully we fired the DC, got a new one, and new position coaches and collectively...that same group that went through hell the year before, committed themselves and played well the following year.
February 9th, 2022 at 10:24 AM ^
The 2020 season was a small sample size, sure. But I saw enough of the 2020 Wisconsin game to know that if you took out the top 2 D-linemen, the entire defense was abysmal.
February 9th, 2022 at 10:30 AM ^
“Quantity and not quality” could be said about OSU’s 13th ranking on defense.
This is true. But there was a lot of youth/inexperience on OSU's D that now has a year of experience.
Hickman had a bit of a breakout year, and add in a healthy Josh Proctor and an OSU transfer already experienced in the scheme (NTOSU), and the secondary will be much more sound.
The LB room has been the dumpster fire of the program since the top 4 LBs all left after 2020. Shoring up that unit will be huge. (They have at least 3 current LBs who played on offense as recently as last year.)
February 9th, 2022 at 3:26 PM ^
Line play. The difference in the The Game was that our OL play was substantially better than OSU's DL. Haskell Garrett and a couple of other guys on the DL are leaving. The replacements are planned to be older guys that didn't start last year. I'm not sure their DL improves which we all know stresses the back of any defense. So, I like our chances at moving the ball again next year.
I think the key to whether OSU's offense returns to the '21 level will be the OL. They're losing Munford and Petit-Frere. They've got lots of good options, but we'll see how that plays out in '22.
February 10th, 2022 at 9:46 AM ^
Line play.
True.
The replacements are planned to be older guys that didn't start last year.
Not entirely true. See J.T. & Jack Sawyer.
They're losing Munford and Petit-Frere. They've got lots of good options, but we'll see how that plays out in '22.
True. But the '22 OL will likely have the standard 2-guard, 2-tackle approach, rather than the 4-tackle approach they tried in '21. So, you're right, we will see.
February 9th, 2022 at 8:33 AM ^
OSU is going to have one of its best teams ever (I truly believe that), with the game at the Shoe (I believe this also).
There is no chance for Michigan to win that game.
...now go win the game. ?
February 9th, 2022 at 8:49 AM ^
or die trying....
February 9th, 2022 at 8:37 AM ^
Wait, BYU is Playing ND in Vegas?
Huh.
February 9th, 2022 at 8:46 AM ^
Yup. Las Vegas, aka God's County.
February 9th, 2022 at 8:58 AM ^
There is going to be 4 kids for every adult married couple in that stadium. Minimum.