Big Ten West Scenarios
The Big Ten West race is coming down to the wire with three possible winners remaining, and four teams involved in determining the winner. Wanted to take some time to analyze it quickly, as, if we finally pull off the impossible, we would be facing one of these teams in two weeks.
Current Standings:
- Wisconsin (6-2)
- Iowa (6-2)
- Minnesota (5-3)
- Purdue (5-3)
Head to Head Results:
- Wisconsin defeated both Iowa and Purdue, still to play Minnesota
- Purdue defeated Iowa, lost to both Minnesota and Wisconsin
- Minnesota defeated Purdue, lost to Iowa, still to play Wisconsin
- Iowa defeated Minnesota, lost to both Purdue and Wisconsin
Week 13 Schedule:
- Iowa at Nebraska (Friday, 1:30PM ET, BTN)
- Indiana at Purdue (Saturday, 3:30PM ET, FS1)
- Wisconsin at Minnesota (Saturday, 4PM ET, FOX)
Now that all the background is covered, below are the scenarios each contender can win the West:
WISCONSIN:
- Wisconsin wins the West if they defeat Minnesota in Minneapolis, regardless of what happens anywhere else. That's the simplest (and most boring) scenario.
- If the Badgers lose, the still have a Hail Mary hope: first (and most obviously) they would need Iowa to lose, but they also would need Indiana to beat Purdue in West Lafayette. If Purdue loses, they would be 5-4 and out of the picture, leaving a three-way 6-3 tie between Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. All three teams would be 1-1 against the other two, which sends the tiebreaker to their record against the West. Because 2/3 of Wisconsin's losses were to the East (Michigan & Penn State), they would win this tiebreaker with 5-1 record against the West (Minnesota would be 4-2 against the West, Iowa would be 3-3). The Badgers can win a three-way tie, but NOT a four-way tie (see below), which is why Purdue still matters to the race even though they can't actually go to Indianapolis.
IOWA:
- Iowa wins the West if they beat the Huskers in Lincoln AND Minnesota beats Wisconsin (leaving them alone at 7-2 in Big Ten play). This is their only path; the Hawkeyes cannot win any tiebreakers (whether 2-way, 3-way or 4-way).
MINNESOTA:
- This is where it gets really interesting...if Minnesota beats Wisconsin, AND Nebraska beats Iowa, AND Purdue beats Indiana we would have a four-way tie at 6-3 and the Gophers would represent the West in Indianapolis. The Gophers need the assist from Purdue because they can only win a 4-way tiebreaker, not a 3-way tiebreaker. The first tiebreaker is record amongst the tied group, and in this case Iowa and Purdue would be 1-2 against the other three teams, Minnesota and Wisconsin would be 2-1. Therefore, Iowa and Purdue are eliminated, and then it reverts to head-to-head between Minnesota & Wisconsin, which the Gophers would have won.
Who would you want to face and why? I'm rooting for Minnesota as it would be pretty incredible to have two trophies up for grabs in Indy. The Little Brown Jug deserves all the spotlight!
GO BLUE, BEAT OHIO!
November 20th, 2021 at 11:48 PM ^
Of the three, I’d like to avoid Wisconsin. The revenge factor is not ideal, plus they are rolling now with that frosh RB.
November 21st, 2021 at 10:10 AM ^
When we got Harbaugh, I thought his experience in prepping for the same team in a season would be a huge advantage if/when we made the conference title game. Now throw in a DC with the same type of experience and I really like our chances in a rematch scenario.
Even if that’s a tangible help, I agree with you that Iowa and Minnesota would be easier matchups, though.
If it was Michigan/Minnesota in the title game, I would LOVE it if Michigan still brought the jug. Play for both trophies.
November 20th, 2021 at 11:54 PM ^
It would be hard to beat Wisconsin again but not impossible
November 20th, 2021 at 11:55 PM ^
The Big Ten really needs to drop the divisions already. You’re telling me that Minnesota (which lost to frickin’ Bowling Green) can potentially play for the Big Ten title?
November 20th, 2021 at 11:57 PM ^
I'd prefer Minnesota. Beating that Wisconsin defense twice would be a tall order. And tricky shit happens with Iowa, that would be a tight one.
But I don't think I'd even get to see that game, since if we win next Saturday I might die of happiness
November 20th, 2021 at 11:59 PM ^
I honestly think anything can happen.
Obviously, Wisconsin is the favorite, but the Badgers are definitely vulnerable and Minnesota is playing at home in a (likely below freezing) rivalry night game.
Iowa is a favorite against Nebraska too, but the Huskers have been so close, against good teams, ALL SEASON, and this is their last game of the year, senior day at home. Maybe they can finally finish? Not to mention, Iowa has already face-planted twice in Big Ten West play (Purdue, Wisconsin), and has also struggled with bad Northwestern and Illinois teams in the past month.
Purdue is probably close to a lock to beat an 0-8 Indiana team at home, which is necessary for the four-way tie.
Will be interesting!
November 21st, 2021 at 12:02 AM ^
First and foremost, BEAT Ohio. Otherwise nothing going on in the B1G West matters.
But once we're successful in eliminating osu, only then it's Go Go Gophers (and/or whatever else go into any scenario that knocks Wisconsin out of the championship game).
Simply put, it's time to make the most of our opportunity next Saturday at high noon.
Come next Saturday in Ann Arbor, let's see our Men in Maize and Blue have the kind of game that will stamp them forever as Victors Valiant and Conquering Heroes!!!
November 21st, 2021 at 12:05 AM ^
Minnesota, because they're the fools' goldiest of the three.
Kirk Ferentz becomes Aggressive Modern Kirk Ferentz against Michigan (and Minnesota -- he and Fleck don't like each other, apparently). And Wisconsin would be super-motivated for revenge... plus, keep in mind that Mertz only played the first half against Michigan. He's not the all-world QB that they thought they were getting, but combined with a resuscitated running game, against a Michigan team coming off of the emotional high to end all emotional highs?
Give me the Jug all day.
November 21st, 2021 at 12:21 AM ^
To be completely honest, I don’t even care about the Big Ten title game if we beat OSU. That alone will have me on cloud nine until next season.
November 21st, 2021 at 3:25 AM ^
Would normally agree but this college football playoff is extremely winnable if Georgia’s the 1 seed
November 21st, 2021 at 12:23 AM ^
Ok I think I got it....
November 21st, 2021 at 10:29 AM ^
Scanners! One of the great horror/Sci fi movies of all time!
November 21st, 2021 at 1:47 AM ^
1. This season is already a winner
2. To get to the point of worrying about this, we have beaten OSU. In which case, I'm giddy for months.
3. The idea of beating Wisconsin TWICE this year after some of the humiliation they laid on us the last few years is too great to pass up. I say we are playing with house money at that point, so bring it on.
4. Let's have Georgia destroy Alabama in the SEC championship. Undefeated Cincy get's in at #4. 11-1 Notre Dame get's in at #3 and we are #2. Laying the wood on Notre Dame in the semi-final would give our fans an erection for months.
5. Take our medicine against Georgia, but who the hell cares at that point?
I'm drunk and dreaming. But, it is a nice dream.
November 21st, 2021 at 2:15 AM ^
Why would Notre Dame be ranked ahead of an undefeated team they lost at home to?
November 21st, 2021 at 2:31 AM ^
Because I've been drinking and my fantasy requires beating the stuffing out of the Irish for the world to see.
Also, if Wisconsin makes it to the championship game Notre Dame does have the 41-13 win over them (and win over Purdue). If Cincy squeaks by in their last two, I'm just spiff balling that the committee would offer them up as cannon fodder to Georgia.
November 21st, 2021 at 1:59 AM ^
Great post! Not gonna happen, but my preference would also be Michigan - Minnesota for the Jug and the Big Ten title.
November 21st, 2021 at 9:54 AM ^
I wonder if the Big Ten Championship game has ever been played for two trophies (in this hypothetical case, the Big Ten Championship AND the jug)?
November 21st, 2021 at 6:06 AM ^
Great post. I was thinking about this just this morning and by golly here it is all laid out nicely.
I would want to play Iowa as I think we would have no problem with them. I really would just want to play anyone but Wisc again. You know they want another crack at Michigan after being embarrassed earlier this year..
My prediction is that Iowa loses at Nebraska. Purdue will roll Indiana. Minn and Wisc will be a great game. I think Wisc gets it done.
November 21st, 2021 at 8:22 AM ^
I think we match up well with Iowa. We would crush their offense and could move the ball enough on their d to win comfortably.
November 21st, 2021 at 10:53 AM ^
Fuck Wisconsin. If there is one thing that has been proven definitively so far in the Big Ten it is that they are not one of the top two teams in the conference. I am so sick of them being rewarded year after year simply for being the only competent program in the West.
November 21st, 2021 at 11:26 AM ^
I love this. I hope Wisconsin loses so it can get messy.
November 21st, 2021 at 12:05 PM ^
They are not going to lose. Once again they are somewhere between the 3rd and 5th best team in the conference but they are going to play in the championship game because they are in the West with a bunch of MAC level programs.
November 21st, 2021 at 12:15 PM ^
I think it'd be cool to see somebody who's not Wisconsin win the West.
But, I'm not remotely concerned about the matchup, because there is zero reason to worry about any of this until you get past OSU.
November 21st, 2021 at 12:48 PM ^
Yes, but I am peeved at how much UW’s reputation has been burnished by being in the championship game every year. Flip UM or PSU into the West and put UW into the East and the national reputations of those teams change.