Big Ten Week Eleven Lines/Over Under Predictions

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November 6th, 2012 at 11:58 AM
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justingoblue
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Big Ten Week Eleven Lines/Over Under Predictions

Week eleven lines and over/unders are up and that means MGoBlog's 238947324th best weekly post is back.

Recap (game, who covered, by how much, over/under, by how much):

Illinois @ Ohio State: Ohio State (2.5) over (+23.5)
Michigan @ Minnesota: Michigan (9.5) under (-3.5)
Penn State @ Purdue: Penn State (21.5) under (-8.5)
Nebraska @ Michigan State: Nebraska (2) over (8)
Iowa @ Indiana: Indiana (1.5) under (-10.5)

Notes: No upsets this week.

If you picked last week, see how you did here.

Week Eleven (line listed is for the home team):

Northwestern @ Michigan (-11, +/-52.5)
Penn State @ Nebraska (-7.5, +/-53)
Wisconsin @ Indiana (+7, +/-54.5)
Purdue @ Iowa (-4.5, +/-51)
Minnesota @ Illinois (+3, +/-47)

For the second week in a row, I have to say Penn State looks good at that line. This may be wishful thinking on my part, but I definitely think Nebraska and Martinez hit a wall enough times that it should go down to the wire. Elsewhere, I'm more confident that Minnesota will beat Illinois handily, and the over looks tempting for Wisconsin v. Indiana.

Elsewhere:

Texas A&M @ Alabama (-15.5, +/-56)
Oregon @ California (+28, +/-67.5)
Notre Dame @ Boston College (+19, +/-48)
Colorado @ Arizona (-31, +/-68)

Nobody has been willing to put a line on Kansas State v. TCU (Klein).
 

"We bring you to Michigan to take care of Michigan; your job is to protect that block M."
-Carol Hutchins

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November 6th, 2012 at 12:15 PM | Too many points? (Score:3 Normal)
Blueto
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Joined: 11/18/2009
MGoPoints: 265

I'm tempted to hedge my emotional investment and take NW and 11 points. Northwestern isn't bad. I think we'll win but it might be closer than that.

November 6th, 2012 at 12:19 PM | I'm surprised that there are (Score:4 Normal)
GrowBlue
Joined: 09/15/2011
MGoPoints: 193

I'm surprised that there are even lines for us. When a major player is questionable due to injury, don't the books typically hesitate to release lines? (Too much uncertainty). Happened when Braxton was taken to the hospital a few weeks back...

November 6th, 2012 at 12:21 PM | That's exactly... (Score:3 Normal)
justingoblue
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Joined: 11/16/2010
MGoPoints: 11031

what's going on with Kansas State this week.

"We bring you to Michigan to take care of Michigan; your job is to protect that block M."
-Carol Hutchins

November 6th, 2012 at 12:19 PM | I think so too. (Score:3 Normal)
justingoblue
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Joined: 11/16/2010
MGoPoints: 11031

With nothing other than guesses about Denard, that line opening at thirteen in at least one place seems really big. Northwestern is a pretty decent team; I think we win, but double digits seems optimistic at this point, let alone nearly two touchdowns earlier in the week.

"We bring you to Michigan to take care of Michigan; your job is to protect that block M."
-Carol Hutchins

November 6th, 2012 at 12:19 PM | Definitely under on our game. (Score:5 Normal)
WolvinLA2
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Joined: 11/13/2009
MGoPoints: 18034

Definitely under on our game. No way NW scores more than 17, which would mean we'd need to score 36.

I bet both teams score fewer than that and the score looks a lot like our score from last week. I'll say 33-13.

November 6th, 2012 at 12:22 PM | Two items before moving on to (Score:5 Normal)
Logan88
Joined: 01/05/2009
MGoPoints: 2988

Two items before moving on to picks:

1) Didn't the MSU/Nebraska game go OVER? I think the O/U was ~44 and the total was 52.

2) What is the deal with the dude who keeps negging these posts? Opposition to even the hint of gambling? Just doesn't like the OP? What gives?

On with the shu...

UM wins...and covers. UM 30 NU 17.

Nebraska also covers. PSU is not really that good and UN will be bringing the heat against McGloin.

Indiana..WINS!...but doesn't cover.

Iowa wins and covers.

I have no idea what will happen with the Minny/Illinois game. If I had to pick, I would go with Minny as I suspect that the Illini players may have folded up their tents at this point.

We ARE Michigan....COME GET SOME!!!

November 6th, 2012 at 12:25 PM | Indiana has to cover to win (Score:5 Normal)
Trebor
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Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 1020

Indiana has to cover to win (line is Indiana +7).

November 6th, 2012 at 12:37 PM | D'Oh! And now my inability to (Score:5 Normal)
Logan88
Joined: 01/05/2009
MGoPoints: 2988

D'Oh!

And now my inability to read (thought it was IU -7.0...which did seem a little odd) is immortalized for all time.

We ARE Michigan....COME GET SOME!!!

November 6th, 2012 at 12:29 PM | You're correct... (Score:3 Normal)
justingoblue
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Joined: 11/16/2010
MGoPoints: 11031

about your first point, I'm not sure if I messed up on a copy/paste or just didn't see the right numbers or what the deal was.

As for the second, I'm really not sure what's up with that, but it's not a big deal either way.

"We bring you to Michigan to take care of Michigan; your job is to protect that block M."
-Carol Hutchins

November 6th, 2012 at 4:40 PM | Logan88, have to agree, can’t see any PSU love (Score:4 Normal)
ChicagoB1GRed
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Joined: 06/10/2010
MGoPoints: 917

Best home win: NW
Best road win: Purdue, Iowa, Illinois—-take your pick
Other wins: Navy, Temple
Best Loss: OSU
Worst Loss: Ohio, Virginia

Not an impressive body of work for a 6-3 team. And their pro-style, pocket passer offense is what Pelini defenses typically feast on. But the Huskers might have one of their “lay an egg” games they shouldn’t lose like NW last year. Don’t think so with this team.

Still think the Legends isn't decided until last week of the season

“We have no rival. We are Nebraska.”

--Bob Devaney

November 7th, 2012 at 2:57 AM | So does Nebraska -7.5 looks good? (Score:1 Normal)
justingoblue
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Joined: 11/16/2010
MGoPoints: 11031

I don't mean to be rhetorical at all: if you had to pick a line at the moment, what do you (and other seemingly rational UNL fans) think would be predicative? I don't mean to put you on the spot, but -8.5? -9.5? -10.5? Higher?

"We bring you to Michigan to take care of Michigan; your job is to protect that block M."
-Carol Hutchins

November 8th, 2012 at 7:09 PM | NU not being our own worst enemy, avoiding turnovers etc (Score:3 Normal)
ChicagoB1GRed
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Joined: 06/10/2010
MGoPoints: 917

and playing a complete game instead of waiting till mid 4th quarter----we smoke PSU, so higher than 10.5 (see below). We really haven't put it all together in a game this year. That's our flaw.

Pelini's defenses feast on pro style offenses like PSU. We have one of the B1G's best offenses, the best when not shooting ourselves in the foot. And as I said, I think PSU's 6-3 record is....not that good.

But so far Nebraska has played streaky, and PSU's game seems to be opportunistic and steady. So in that regard PSU matches up well against us. The Hare and the Tortoise. Wish we had Burkhead back, he's the team's rock.

            The good NU: 38-14

            The bad NU: 27-21

[EDIT]:  The ugly NU: 20-27

Legends not decided till last week of the season.

“We have no rival. We are Nebraska.”

--Bob Devaney

November 6th, 2012 at 12:24 PM | Northwestern, over - Michigan (Score:4 Normal)
Trebor
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Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 1020

Northwestern, over - Michigan looked good last week without Denard, but Northwestern is going to be a bit more of a threat I think. With Colter taking over the QB duties full time for the Wildcats, it's going to be a close game with decent point totals on both sides. Michigan pulls away late, 34-24.

Penn State, under - Nebraska has looked very good at home, but they haven't been tested aside from Michigan pre-Denard injury. Penn State brings a tough, disciplined (i.e., not MSU) defense, and an offense which looks better and better each week. Penn State comes close, but Nebraska again wins at the wire, 27-24.

Wisconsin, over - This should be a game with a lot of points, but Wisconsin is just a bit too strong for Indiana I think. The hopes of seeing the Hoosiers in the Rose Bowl die here as Wisconsin wins 35-27.

Iowa, under - Two teams that have had extremely disappointing seasons. Good for Iowa is they are at home and Purdue has quit for the season. With Iowa still technically in the race for a division title, they take care of business 20-7.

Minnesota, over - Illinois is terrible. Minnesota has found some new life with Nelson at QB. Minnesota does here what they did to an almost-as-bad Purdue team and win handily, 42-13.

For the other games:

Alabama, under (Alabama wins 31-14)
Oregon, over (Oregon wins 56-17)
Notre Dame, under (ND wins 28-7)
Arizona, under (Arizona wins 52-7)

November 6th, 2012 at 12:34 PM | Our d will hold Northwestern (Score:4 Normal)
goblue85
Joined: 08/23/2011
MGoPoints: 358

Our d will hold Northwestern under 24 at home book it!

November 6th, 2012 at 1:08 PM | Agreed. N'Western's offense (Score:5 Normal)
Logan88
Joined: 01/05/2009
MGoPoints: 2988

Agreed. N'Western's offense isn't that good. I know that their scoring average is slightly better than UM's but they have 5  non-offensive TD's this season to ony 1 non-offensive TD for UM, so their offense has been even less productive than UM. In addition, UM has played 3 elite defenses (Bama, ND and MSU) while NU has only played one good defense in PSU.

Againt the 8 FBS teams NU has played (they also played Sout Dakota, an FCS team with a 1-8 record...so they really don't even count as a real team IMO) they have done the following:

@ Syracuse: 337 offensive yards, 596 given up by defense. Won the game 42-41. They scored 2 non-offensive TD's in this game and were +2 TO margin.

Vandy: 324 offensive yards, 318 defense. Won 23-13 but scored the last points late in game to "pull away." +2 TO margin.

BC: 560 offensive, 316 defensive. Somehow only won 22-13. BC is horrible.

Indiana: 704 offensive, 425 defensive. Best performance of the season. Indiana is not good but they are better than BC. 44-29 win.

@PSU: 247 offensive, 443 defensive. Lost 28-39. Scored a non-offensive TD.

@Minny: 275 offensive, 327 defensive. Won 21-13. +3 TO margin.

Nebraska: 301 offensive, 543 defensive. Lost 28-29. +3 TO margin. They should have been blown out in this game.

Iowa: 433 offensive, 336 defensive. 28-17. 2nd best performance of season.

In their 3 road games, they are averaging 286 yards on offense and giving up 455 yards on defense. Had they played UM's schedule, they would probably be no better than 5-4 and very likely would be 4-5.

We ARE Michigan....COME GET SOME!!!

November 6th, 2012 at 12:34 PM |   - As another poster pointed (Score:3 Normal)
BeantownWolverine
Joined: 10/07/2011
MGoPoints: 103

 

- As another poster pointed out, MSU/NEB was definitely OVER. Don't ask me why I remember so well.

- If I bet on NW, I would buy some points to go with NW +14. I don't think we can beat NW by 2TDs, with our without Denard.

- Minn covers and wins. Minny is getting better and better as Nelson takes more snaps and Barker getting healthier.

- Indiana covers. TD, Houston.

- Iowa covers. I never underestimate that pink room.

 

- Oregon, aka the cover machine, will cover.

 

 

November 6th, 2012 at 1:24 PM | I also like Minn to cover, (Score:4 Normal)
FairleyStUHpid
Joined: 11/02/2012
MGoPoints: 54

I also like Minn to cover, and I like the over in that game as well.

Given how close the ND games have been this year, I'm taking BC with the points, too.

November 6th, 2012 at 1:35 PM | The ND game is odd. All of (Score:4 Normal)
Logan88
Joined: 01/05/2009
MGoPoints: 2988

The ND game is odd. All of ND's nailbiters have been in South Bend, while they have generally been winning big on the road. Meanwhile, BC, even though they have been bad for some time now, has been giving ND fits for about 8 years now, so I would not be surprised to see them cover in a night game at Chestnut Hill.

We ARE Michigan....COME GET SOME!!!

November 8th, 2012 at 12:22 AM | Not sure I would call Oregon (Score:1)
tpilews
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MGoPoints: 1756

Not sure I would call Oregon the cover machine at 5-4 ATS. I believe that distinction belongs to Utah State at a perfect 10-0.

November 6th, 2012 at 1:40 PM | One last semi-reassuring (Score:4 Normal)
Logan88
Joined: 01/05/2009
MGoPoints: 2988

One last semi-reassuring factoid re: Northwestern (if you even needed it): under Fitzgerald, they are 0-6 in games after a bye week.

We ARE Michigan....COME GET SOME!!!

November 6th, 2012 at 2:13 PM | Big Ten Predictions (Score:3 Normal)
LSAClassOf2000
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Joined: 01/07/2011
MGoPoints: 8938

Northwestern @ Michigan (-11, +/-52.5) -  Almost nothing Northwestern does comes through the air, so we may spend much of the game testing the endurance of the rushing defense. We'll pull it out, but the Wildcats will see the end zone a couple times. 30-24 Michigan

 
Penn State @ Nebraska (-7.5, +/-53) - Penn State has an excellent passing attack this year, and should be able to slow down Nebraska on the ground, but I think the Cornhuskers have the weapons in the rushing game to grind the Nittany Lions down. 24-21 Nebraska.

Wisconsin @ Indiana (+7, +/-54.5) -  Indiana is going to score, no doubt, but the Badgers defense is good enough by the numbers to not let it happen as often as the Buckeyes did, and Danny O'Brien or Montee Ball or otherwise, there is no denying that Indiana trolls the bottom of many defensive metrics in the conference. Wisconsin in a 35-24-ish performance.

Purdue @ Iowa (-4.5, +/-51) -  I cannot imagine this game producing more than 51 points of offense as both offenses are statistically anemic, but Iowa is going to be able to keep the Boilermakers from doing much despite being their own worst enemy on offense. 24-10 Iowa.

Minnesota @ Illinois (+3, +/-47) - In short, Minnesota looks capable of doing to the Illini what we did to them. The Gophers definitely tack onto an increasingly lengthy list of Illini bloodlettings in conference play. 35-10 Gophers.

"Funny isn't it, how naughty dentists always make that one fatal mistake."

Follow the random tweets of a Michigan alum - http://twitter.com/#!/LorneEC3

November 6th, 2012 at 2:13 PM | Prediction... (Score:2 Normal)
Mich Mash
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Joined: 10/01/2012
MGoPoints: 261

...7-3 last week.

Northwestern @ Michigan (-11, +/-52.5): Michigan / Over
Penn State @ Nebraska (-7.5, +/-53): Penn St / Under
Wisconsin @ Indiana (+7, +/-54.5): Wisconsin / Over
Purdue @ Iowa (-4.5, +/-51): Iowa / Under
Minnesota @ Illinois (+3, +/-47): Minnesota / Over

Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.

November 6th, 2012 at 3:07 PM | ok (Score:2 Normal)
snowcrash
Joined: 07/22/2008
MGoPoints: 1586

Mich, under. Michigan doesn't do high-scoring games against opponents with a pulse. I think the defense can hold NW to 17 or less.

PSU, under. I like the half point, I can easily see a 7 point Neb win here. PSU does not have the type of offense to blow Neb's defense up.

Ind, over. I like Wisconsin to win but not to cover. Ind always keeps it close at home.

Iowa, under. Purdue's offense is regressing.

Minn, under. Good teams wear the Gophers down, but they can take care of business against crappy teams.

November 6th, 2012 at 11:27 PM | Vegas is predicting... (Score:4 Normal)
Balrog_of_Morgoth
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Joined: 11/12/2011
MGoPoints: 338

Vegas is (roughly) predicting

Michigan 32, Northwestern 21

Nebraska 30, Penn State 23

Wisconsin 31, Indiana 24

Iowa 28, Purdue 23

Minnesota 25, Illinois 22

I'll take Northwestern (under), Penn State (over), Indiana (under), Iowa (over), and Minnesota (under). 

November 7th, 2012 at 12:29 AM | Yikes, 4-6 last week. Still (Score:2 Normal)
spartanfan123
Joined: 02/15/2012
MGoPoints: 483

Yikes, 4-6 last week. Still 31-13 overall

 

Northwestern @ Michigan (-11, +/-52.5) - Northwestern, under

Penn State @ Nebraska (-7.5, +/-53) - Nebraska, under

Wisconsin @ Indiana (+7, +/-54.5) - Indiana (I hope), over

Purdue @ Iowa (-4.5, +/-51) - Iowa, under

Minnesota @ Illinois (+3, +/-47) - Minnesota, under

November 8th, 2012 at 10:26 AM | I'm taking Michigan by 24 and (Score:1)
Newbs
Joined: 10/15/2012
MGoPoints: 181

I'm taking Michigan by 24 and the under. NW has a good offense but our defense will shut them down especiaqlly at home. If anything the d may give up a couple TD's before we make our adjustments and crush them.

WOLVERINE NATION!

Twitter: @MckenzieNewby

 

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