BBall - Non-Conference Opponents' Records = Doom
Looking at the records of our 11 non-conference opponents thus far, and I was shocked at how awful they are and how damaging they will be to our far-outside-chances of making the tourney:
Meaninless Wins
Ark Pine Bluff: 0-11
Houston Baptist: 1-11
Norther Mich.: Div. II
"Must-Win" Wins:
Detroit: 9-4
Creighton: 5-7 (this seemed to be a better win at the time)
Coppin St: 5-5
So, at 6-5 we have ZERO "good" wins; however, as for losses:
"good" Loss:
KU #1 and 12-0
"Acceptable" Losses:
'Bama: 8-4
Marquette: 9-4
"Unnacceptable Losses:
BC (at home): 8-4
Horrible Loss:
Utah: 6-7
That Utah game is going to haunt UM; and their inability to beat either Marquette or 'Bama early in the year will linger.
On paper, it looked like Creighton, Utah, BC, KU, and UConn would be enough for strength of schedule points... but no.
Looks like UM needs to go 11-7 (at least) and a first round win in the Big 10 tourney to make the Dance. With a "good" loss to UConn that would make them 18-13 in the upper half of a major conference. I doubt 10-8 would do it at this point.
First step: Beat IU tomorrow
December 30th, 2009 at 3:24 PM ^
The RPI does take game location into account, which somewhat mitigates the Utah loss (though it also makes the BC loss worse). At any rate, keep in mind that the committee really values how your team progresses as the year goes on. If we have a strong Big Ten season, that will carry more weight than what we did in December. I agree that 11-7 is probably necessary.
December 30th, 2009 at 3:43 PM ^
Bama, Marquette and BC have strong showings in their conferences. If those teams have weak showings in their conferences those losses will look worse as the season wears on.
December 30th, 2009 at 4:56 PM ^
they won't win more than seven conference games. They don't shoot well, don't rebound well, don't play D well. Not a good recipe.
December 30th, 2009 at 5:58 PM ^
Well, yeah, total record is 6-5, but the NCAA tourney committee doesn't look at the DII win, so actually Mich is 5-5, meaning unless they win 11 or 12 games and give UConn a good game, the NCAA tourney looks like a looong shot.
Win 11 and Mich finishes at 16-13 provided UConn wins... that's not going to do it.
Probably best case scenerio Mich fans can hope for is that Mich wins 10 or 11 and needs a couple BT tourney wins to improve their chances.
December 30th, 2009 at 6:10 PM ^
It is more important that Michigan plays well in February and March. Plenty of teams make it each year that start poorly and finish strong. I agree that 11-7 is necessary but 10-8 with a win over UCONN might do it as well, provided they win a couple games in the BTT.
December 30th, 2009 at 6:25 PM ^
Hey thanks for the good news and I am looking forward to your Michigan Hockey update... Good post but please kill me now.