Wolverine Devotee

May 29th, 2016 at 4:20 PM ^

I'll about take anything at this point. Making it as an at-large would be a step forward, though we didn't win the B1G this year. 

We wouldn't have gotten an at-large last year if we didn't win the B1G Tournament so this would be progress. 

If I had to choose, Conway.

Joined: 06/29/2009

MGoPoints: 31528

Alton

May 29th, 2016 at 4:32 PM ^

Is Michigan really still in the top 32?  Not according to RPI--they are #37, which is a high 3-seed.  Also, North Carolina is #17 in the RPI.  I just don't see anything to support giving Michigan a 2-seed in the same regional where North Carolina is a 3-seed.

I guess this surprises me; they are more optimistic about Michigan's chances of getting into the field than I am.  I still think there's an outside chance that the committee passes on them.

Joined: 07/05/2008

MGoPoints: 13273

chatster

May 29th, 2016 at 5:56 PM ^

Despite (a) finishing 16-16 in their last 32 games, (b) going 2-9 down the stretch (including five losses to Ohio State in that span, (c) having a 10-16 record against teams in the top 100 of the RPI rankings and (d) having the worst finish to the season of any Big Ten team (as the only Big Ten team with fewer than three wins in its final ten games), after starting the season with a 20-5 record, Michigan still has the best RPI of any Big Ten team at 37.  LINK
 
Only fifteen of Michigan’s 36 wins were against teams with winning records. Six of those wins came in February, and four of them were against Canisius that finished 32-27.
 
Blogger Warren Nolan still has Michigan among the 64 teams to be selected for the NCAA tournament, as one of the last four in the field, along with Minnesota, Oregon State and Southeastern Louisiana. He makes Michigan the third seed in a region hosted by Southern Mississippi, with Wake Forest as the two seed and Southeast Missouri State as the four seed. LINK
 
If red-hot Iowa (unbeaten in the Big Ten Tournament; winners of eight of their last nine with seven of those wins coming against teams with winning records) comes back to beat Ohio State to win the Big Ten championship, then it might be that only Iowa and Ohio State wiould make the NCAA field from the Big Ten, but the Wolverines still would be on the bubble.

Joined: 09/14/2010

MGoPoints: 26926

Raoul

May 29th, 2016 at 6:41 PM ^

OSU beat Iowa for the championship and auto bid, so Iowa's out (with an RPI of 71). Michigan's RPI is now 38, second in the Big Ten to OSU, at 35; next highest is Nebraska at 48.

I wouldn't put a lot of stock in projections that have Michigan as a 2 seed. The better-known sites have had them as a 3 seed for some time now.

Joined: 09/29/2009

MGoPoints: 13957

ChalmersE

May 29th, 2016 at 6:40 PM ^

Baseball America also had Michigan in before the B1G tourney and it's latest bubble watch didn't even mention Michigan. I think that means they think we're in. We'll know by this time tomorrow.

Joined: 11/19/2008

MGoPoints: 5196

Wolvie3758

May 29th, 2016 at 7:21 PM ^

because if a 3rd Big team gets in its going to be Michigan over Nebraska ..A team Michigan SWEPT and a win over the Reg season Champs Minnesota in the tourney.... and the 2nd highets RPI in the conference right behind OSU..Were IN..barely but were in

Joined: 12/12/2010

MGoPoints: 6338

Raoul

May 29th, 2016 at 7:33 PM ^

As Alton has pointed out, the committee can take how a team did over its last 15 games into account, and on that score, Nebraska (11-4) is in much better shape than Michigan (6-9).

Also, heading into the Big Ten tourney, Baseball America had Nebraska as a 2 seed and Michigan as a 3. Does Michigan going 1-2 in the BTT jump them ahead of Nebraksa, which went 0-2? Seems unlikely.

Joined: 09/29/2009

MGoPoints: 13957

Wolvie3758

May 29th, 2016 at 7:48 PM ^

The end of season record is THE ONLY comparison Neb wins...Head to head, RPI, Tourney wins, Michigan Win..And our one tourney win was a big one against the Conference ChampsI just cant see Nebraska getting in at our expense..maybe both get in but M will get in over Neb

Joined: 12/12/2010

MGoPoints: 6338

chatster

May 29th, 2016 at 8:10 PM ^

Keeping Michigan out of the NCAA Baseball Tournament field could be based on how poorly they’ve played (a) down the stretch – worse than any other Big Ten team in recent weeks, and (b) against the RPI top 100 teams.
 
No Big Ten team other than Michigan had fewer than three wins over its final ten games. Both of Michigan’s victories during that time were one-run wins. Six of the eight losses were by at least three runs.
 
Minnesota finished 13-9 against the RPI top 100; Nebraska finished 11-12 against the RPI top 100; Michigan finished 10-16 against the RPI top 100.
 
However . . . although Minnesota, the Big Ten’s regular season champion, and Nebraska, the Big Ten’s regular season runner-up finished ahead of fifth-place Michigan in the conference standings, Michigan beat Nebraska handily three times in Ann Arbor (albeit, six weeks ago) and beat Minnesota in the Big Ten Tournament, and finished with a higher RPI than either of those teams, thanks to a 20-5 start to the season. Consideration also might be given to the fact that five of Michigan's losses in its final ten games were to Big Ten Tournament champion Ohio State.

Joined: 09/14/2010

MGoPoints: 26926

chatster

May 30th, 2016 at 8:25 AM ^

I've posted below to include a link a projection made this morning (May 30). Some of the earlier projections, such as the May 24 projection from Baseball America, couldn't account for bid stealers that have won conference tournaments and other teams like Michigan that might've needed to have better performances in their conference tournaments, in order to make the field of 64.

It's likely that those early projections that included Michigan in the field of 64, and even had them as a two seed, were made with the expectations that a team with the best RPI in its conference and among the top 40 in the nation would play well enough down the stretch to deserve selection for the final field.

Joined: 09/14/2010

MGoPoints: 26926

chatster

May 30th, 2016 at 8:14 AM ^

SPOILER ALERT: Here's a bracket out this morning that has only two Big Ten teams in the field: tournament champion Ohio State (a two seed in Louisville's region) and regular season champion Minnesota (a three seed in the region hosted by Miami of Coral Gables.) 

There's a podcast discussing the projected field. LINK The Big Ten discussion starts at about 26:26 into the podcast. SPOILER ALERT: They conclude that Michigan's terrible finish will keep the Wolverines out of the field.

Joined: 09/14/2010

MGoPoints: 26926

Ty Butterfield

May 30th, 2016 at 8:08 AM ^

Promising start to the season but just a terrible finish. Seems like they will miss the tournament. Can't really be upset because they crapped the bed down the stretch. Sort of like basketball, but having two tournament teams on sanctions helped the basketball team sneak in.

Joined: 09/07/2009

MGoPoints: -81685

Raoul

May 30th, 2016 at 8:58 AM ^

Michigan not even among the first four out.

EDIT: Baseball America's final projection has both Michigan and Nebraska among the first four out, with Minnesota barely squeaking in as one of the last four in. Looking like the poor finish plus a weak Big Ten have doomed Michigan's chances.

Joined: 09/29/2009

MGoPoints: 13957