Basketball: Rankings compilation and look at future schedules
Team | kenpom | sagarin | massey | lrmc | Average | Single Plays | Record | Remaining Schedule |
michigan | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2.00 | 205.75 | 6 – 1 | 60.02 |
indiana | 3 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 4.25 | 269.00 | 6 – 1 | 37.73 |
minnesota | 9 | 11 | 17 | 11 | 12.00 | 289.00 | 3 – 4 | 53.25 |
osu | 10 | 8 | 14 | 13 | 11.25 | 259.00 | 5 – 2 | 38.36 |
msu | 16 | 14 | 12 | 19 | 15.25 | 353.50 | 6 – 2 | 38.30 |
wisconsin | 15 | 17 | 29 | 16 | 19.25 | 165.50 | 5 – 2 | 60.84 |
iowa | 34 | 39 | 57 | 40 | 42.50 | 2 – 5 | ||
illinois | 56 | 51 | 39 | 49 | 48.75 | 2 – 5 | ||
purdue | 63 | 55 | 80 | 78 | 69.00 | 4 – 3 | ||
nw | 88 | 75 | 70 | 97 | 82.50 | 3 – 5 | ||
nebraska | 154 | 124 | 108 | 142 | 132.00 | 2 – 6 | ||
psu | 201 | 170 | 190 | 212 | 193.25 | 0 – 8 |
- I decided to compile some of the computer rankings that are regarded highly and then average them out.
- Then, I went through and summed up all of the single plays that each of the upper tier teams has (lower number indicates an easier set of single plays).
- Lastly, I decided to show the current conference record and then an average ranking of the upcoming schdule (lower number suggesting harder difficulty, on average).
The one thing I didn't account for in the single plays or in the remaining schedule was any impact road/home games would have...mostly because I wasn't sure how to fairly do that. Still, I think it gives you a pretty good idea without any adjustments of how teams stand.
Hope the formatting works out properly for the chart...
January 29th, 2013 at 2:29 PM ^
So what you're saying is...
Laquon is going to Ol' Miss cuz he got payd?
Oops, sorry, wrong thread...
What you're saying is, we've had just about the hardest schedule to date, and one of the easiest remaining? But that's because we aren't on our own schedule, but we are on all of their schedules.
It does confirm what I noticed last week -- MSU's early B1G schedule was a joke easy. No wonder they were 5-1, they lost their only tough road game (Minnie) (this was prior to going to Bloomington). The only tough game was home against OSU, and they squeaked that out.
January 29th, 2013 at 2:40 PM ^
Sparty also won at Wisconsin. I wouldn't call that joke easy.
January 29th, 2013 at 3:17 PM ^
So is the "Remaining Schedule" column essentially the average rank of our remaining opponents?
January 29th, 2013 at 3:26 PM ^
ya, that's what it should reflect.
January 29th, 2013 at 3:35 PM ^
To supplement this a little bit, TeamRankings started doing Future Strength Of Schedule rankings for Division I - the latest projeciton is here. According to them, the top three, in order, would be Indiana, Ohio State and then Michigan, but what is even more interesting about their projection is that you have to get to #9 before you find a team that is NOT in the Big Ten. The algorithm is a work in progress, but the results are intriguing thus far.
One thing that is interesting looking at the ratings as they are presented here is the increasing variation between them as you move towards the bottom of the Big Ten. I would also call the single plays on the remaining schedule reasonably tight when you consider that all of these teams, by most current projections, are estimated to lose between 2-4 more games each.
Thanks for sharing this data though - it does make it intriguing to think about what could go on between the top six on the list.
January 29th, 2013 at 3:50 PM ^
On that link Notre Dame was 7th toughest , Syracuse was ninth. There projected standings page is interesting to view, www.teamrankings.com/ncb/projections/standings/.
They project Indiana to win the conference and tourney.
January 29th, 2013 at 3:57 PM ^
Thanks for the correction - definite fail/misread on my part there.
Yes, the projected overall wins on their site seem fairly realistic at this point. I believe it had been discussed several weeks ago in a similar thread that the common belief here was that the conference champion would likely be a 4-5 loss team. Numbers are starting to align to this possibility, it seems.
Team | Overall Wins | Overall Losses |
Michigan | 26.6 | 4.4 |
Indiana | 26.4 | 4.6 |
Michigan St | 22.7 | 8.3 |
Ohio State | 21.9 | 8.1 |
Illinois | 19.6 | 12.4 |
Minnesota | 22.7 | 8.3 |
Wisconsin | 21.1 | 9.9 |
Iowa | 19 | 12 |
Northwestern | 15.3 | 15.7 |
Nebraska | 12.8 | 18.2 |
Purdue | 14.4 | 16.6 |
Penn State | 9.6 | 20.4 |
January 29th, 2013 at 3:42 PM ^
I can't create a thread, so I figured I'd toss this in here
With all the talk about seedings and potential national championship runs, I've been curious about what the odds look like for Michigan getting to the Final Four / Championship Game / Winning it all.
I decided to take ESPN's bracket and calculate the odds using KenPom's Pyth score to simulate the bracket. The percentage in each column reflects the odds of the team reaching that round given the opponents they are likely to face along the way.
The percentages are calculated using a composite of a team's odds of winning against all possible opponents they might face in a given round rather than just against the team they are most likely to see. I think this gives a better overall picture.
Here's what I have:
Odds of making it to Round #: | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Round of 32 | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Title Game | Champion | ||
SOUTH (North Texas) | |||||||
1 | Kansas | 94.2% | 49.6% | 39.7% | 23.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% |
16 | Southern | 5.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
8 | Wisconsin | 38.3% | 16.5% | 12.1% | 6.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
9 | Pittsburgh | 61.7% | 33.5% | 27.3% | 16.8% | 6.0% | 3.0% |
5 | North Carolina St. | 56.8% | 32.7% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
12 | La Salle | 43.2% | 22.1% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
4 | New Mexico | 65.4% | 33.1% | 7.3% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
13 | Louisiana Tech | 34.6% | 12.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
6 | Ucla | 51.1% | 20.3% | 5.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
11 | Iowa St. | 48.9% | 18.9% | 5.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
3 | Michigan St. | 83.3% | 56.0% | 24.5% | 10.7% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
14 | Harvard | 16.7% | 4.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
7 | Mississippi | 65.1% | 20.3% | 10.1% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
10 | Memphis | 34.9% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
2 | Syracuse | 93.9% | 71.4% | 50.8% | 29.1% | 10.0% | 4.8% |
15 | Northeastern | 6.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
WEST (Los Angeles) | |||||||
1 | Florida | 98.7% | 91.2% | 78.5% | 67.0% | 54.6% | 41.7% |
16 | Montana | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
8 | Georgetown | 48.9% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
9 | Colorado | 51.1% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
5 | Wichita St. | 70.1% | 29.4% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
12 | Maryland | 29.9% | 7.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
4 | Ohio St. | 76.7% | 53.5% | 12.4% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
13 | Akron | 23.3% | 9.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
6 | Nevada Las Vegas | 64.1% | 25.9% | 10.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
11 | Illinois | 35.9% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
3 | Miami Fl | 87.6% | 60.7% | 33.4% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
14 | Davidson | 12.4% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
7 | Kansas St. | 37.9% | 11.3% | 3.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
10 | Kentucky | 62.1% | 24.8% | 11.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
2 | Arizona | 91.6% | 62.5% | 37.3% | 9.7% | 4.8% | 2.0% |
15 | Niagara | 8.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
MIDWEST (Indianapolis) | |||||||
1 | Michigan | 97.0% | 82.3% | 61.1% | 38.1% | 22.3% | 9.8% |
16 | Charleston Southern | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
8 | Notre Dame | 49.5% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
9 | North Carolina | 50.5% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
5 | Creighton | 68.3% | 47.4% | 19.2% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 1.1% |
12 | Southern Mississippi | 31.7% | 16.3% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
4 | Oregon | 66.1% | 27.2% | 7.7% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
13 | Stephen F. Austin | 33.9% | 9.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
6 | San Diego St. | 56.3% | 17.1% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
11 | Belmont | 43.7% | 11.2% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
3 | Louisville | 89.9% | 68.9% | 46.4% | 26.5% | 14.8% | 6.2% |
14 | Stony Brook | 10.1% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
7 | Virginia Commonwealth | 67.8% | 28.6% | 10.6% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
10 | Oklahoma | 32.2% | 8.7% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
2 | Gonzaga | 92.4% | 61.5% | 29.1% | 13.3% | 5.9% | 1.9% |
15 | Long Beach St. | 7.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
EAST (Washington, D.C.) | |||||||
1 | Duke | 94.9% | 70.7% | 46.0% | 26.9% | 14.7% | 6.0% |
16 | Western Illinois | 5.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
8 | Baylor | 44.5% | 11.7% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
9 | Colorado St. | 55.5% | 16.9% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
5 | Minnesota | 85.4% | 58.9% | 29.2% | 15.0% | 7.0% | 2.4% |
12 | Temple | 14.6% | 4.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
4 | Cincinnati | 78.0% | 32.6% | 11.9% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
13 | Lehigh | 22.0% | 4.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
6 | Marquette | 55.9% | 31.3% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
11 | Middle Tennessee | 44.1% | 22.2% | 4.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
3 | Butler | 70.5% | 37.1% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
14 | Valparaiso | 29.5% | 9.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
7 | Missouri | 39.5% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
10 | Oklahoma St. | 60.5% | 16.3% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
2 | Indiana | 96.1% | 75.2% | 62.0% | 38.1% | 22.0% | 9.6% |
15 | Florida Gulf Coast | 3.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Let me know what you think
January 29th, 2013 at 3:55 PM ^
right now. You should be able to edit it when I do, although I've never tried that for a poster with <100 points, so maybe the walls will just crumble. I don't know, we'll have to see.
January 29th, 2013 at 4:03 PM ^
right on top of the thread. You can change anything in the thread, from the title on down. Also, I definitely won't feel bad if you change my title; just try to keep it descriptive.
January 29th, 2013 at 6:44 PM ^
That makes no sense. Florida has a 41% chance of winning the tournament? And the next most likely are UM and IU, at 9.8% and 9.6% respectively?
Gentlemen, place your bets, place your bets...