Baseball to Chapel Hill Regional, Will Face FGCU
Go Blue! And Go Wildcats!
https://mobile.twitter.com/NCAACWS/status/869228988664774656
tough draw, UNC is the #2 overall seed
Last team in but a 3 seed in the regional. Why does that make sense?
was the Last at large team in...Wow from possibly hosting a regional to last team in....Gotta turn things around but I like our draw..dont hav to go to Oreg St, LSU, Stanford, etc..
I've mentioned this elesewhere, but college baseball records can be deceiving. Without disparaging Michigan baseball's 2017 season, because it was nice to see them nationally ranked at times this year, especially considering how they've typically been overshadowed by the success of the Michigan softball team, it's important to look at how their record was built. Also remember that of the 64 teams in the NCAA Tournament field, there are 31 automatic qualifiers. The Big Ten Conference is NOT considered to be one of the "power" baseball conferences (ranked seventh overall in conference RPI this season. LINK)
While Michigan baseball is 42-15 after being swept out of the Big Ten Tournament as the number 2 seed, keep in mind that Michigan didn’t play Nebraska (Big Ten regular season champions, but in NCAA Tournament as the lowest ranked two seed, having to play in the bracket with the tournament's top seed, Orgeon State), Minnesota (3rd place in Big Ten, but not in NCAA Tournament) or Iowa (tied for 4th in Big Ten, and an NCAA bid stealer as Big Ten Tournament champion.) Michigan's overall RPI was ranked 35th nationally, but only third ranked among Big Ten teams, behind Indiana at 26 and Maryland at 34. LINK
Also, user name checks out.
Combine that with our 21 bowl wins and 27 NCAA tourney berths in basketball and I believe that makes us one of just 7 schools with at least 20 in each postseason category (Oklahoma, Texas, LSU, Tennessee, Alabama, Ohio State)
So the good news is that Florida Gulf Coast University is easily the worst 2-seed in the tournament, and Michigan is probably the best or second best 3-seed in the tournament (along with South Alabama). Some sample computer ratings by the more well-known and accepted rating systems...
RPI: #2 UNC, #33 FGCU, #35 Michigan, #126 Davidson
Boyd's ISR: #2 UNC, #25 Michigan, #60 FGCU, #153 Davidson
Nolan's NPI: #3 UNC, #18 Michigan, #32 FGCU, #103 Davidson
Massey: #2 UNC, #25 Michigan, #51 FGCU, #148 Davidson
So even though Michigan is the 3-seed, the rating systems seem to favor Michigan over Florida Gulf Coast. Massey says Michigan has a 60% chance of winning their first-round game.
But here's the bad news...baseball is a very different game than other sports, because the pitching rotation plays a significant role in the matchup. And here's FGCU's starting rotation:
Kutter Crawford (7-1, 1.58 ERA, 10.3 K/9, .192 opp avg)
Josh Dye (8-4, 3.32 ERA, 7.4 K/9, .263 opp avg)
Garrett Anderson (7-1, 3.43 ERA, 7.2 K/9, .282 opp avg)
Assuming FGCU pitches the (awsomely-named) Kutter Crawford, Michigan will be starting out with a pretty big disadvantage. Michigan's rotation is more even, and as a result Michigan's strength is when they get down to the #3 and #4 starters--they match up well against anybody at #4. These are the last teams you want to play in the first round: the team with the dominant starter. Oliver Jaskie is a great #1 pitcher for Michigan, but he doesn't have the dominating numbers that Crawford does.
Hoping to attend Friday's game if I can *somehow* skip out of work early.