B1G games, Week 7

Submitted by BuckeyeChuck on October 9th, 2019 at 1:17 PM

(Rankings are SP+. Predicted score per Vegas, involves rounding.)

Michigan (#17) @ Illinois (#71)

  • Michigan 35-13
  • Michigan's #66 offense vs. Illinois' #82 defense
  • Illinois' #54 offense vs. Michigan's #2 defense

Rutgers (#98) @ Indiana (#28)

  • no line, Rutger will be playing without a QB
  • Rutger #106 offense vs. Indiana's #39 defense
  • Indiana's #27 offense vs. Rutger #70 defense

Maryland (#36) @ Purdue (#72)

  • Maryland 28-25
  • Maryland's #51 offense vs. Purdue's #108 defense
  • Purdue's #23 offense vs. Maryland's #34 defense

Michigan State (#18) @ Wisconsin (#6)

  • Wisconsin 25-15
  • Michigan State's #56 offense vs. Wisconsin's #4 defense
  • Wisconsin's #16 offense vs. Michigan State's #6 defense

Penn State (#7) @ Iowa (#21)

  • Penn State 23-19
  • Penn State's #10 offense vs. Iowa's #9 defense
  • Iowa's #55 offense vs. Penn State's #16 defense

Nebraska (#39) @ Minnesota (#26)

  • Minnesota 29-21
  • Nebraska's #34 offense vs. Minnesota's #46 defense
  • Minnesota's #14 offense vs. Nebraska's #52 defense
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buckeyechuck

BuckeyeChuck

October 9th, 2019 at 1:41 PM ^

LOL @ me.

Didn't really think they'd fall off, but sure didn't expect everything to click so well, especially with the talk coming out of camp that Fields was looking unimpressive. What the heck was that about?

My BPONE (which granted is neither as B nor as N as what you guys have been suffering from) is that OSU has clicked the wrong half of the season. I'd rather them click the 2nd half of the season. It's rare to find a team that clicks this well for the duration of an entire season. That's what's a bit scary for me.

Joined: 11/20/2011

MGoPoints: 18326

DrMantisToboggan

October 9th, 2019 at 1:49 PM ^

That's fair. That's just a condition of being 18-22 year old kids who also go to school and have restricted football hours.

I wasn't too concerned about your offense - there's continuity with Day running things and Fields was fairly certain to put it together at some point given his recruiting profile and how much scouting had been done on him. The offense yall run isn't complicated (not a slight, obviously, it's damn effective), which helps.

My question mark for OSU was the defense, mainly the scheme (we all know the players are there). I will say that FAU had some success and MSU did too, actually. Obviously neither had enough to make a difference in the outcome. Wisconsin will pose a unique challenge, but that's in Columbus. That's really the only game I see a challenge for OSU in the rest of the way.

Joined: 11/26/2014

MGoPoints: 74183

DrMantisToboggan

October 9th, 2019 at 2:18 PM ^

In the 20 games he played from 2017-2018 between Ole Miss and Michigan his passer rating was 150, throwing for 8.3ypa, with a 39:16 TD:INT ratio.

So, the answer is that he already had put it together. 

This new system has him (and many of his teammates) sufficiently uncomfortable, however. Let's hope that at some point he puts it back together, because we've seen him play very good football before.

Joined: 11/26/2014

MGoPoints: 74183

CompleteLunacy

October 9th, 2019 at 2:59 PM ^

The problem really is the schedule (and injuries), it did Michigan no favors for installing a new offense. And until Shea can demonstrate the ability to beat a zone and handle a blitz, then the good defenses remaining will do nothing but throw zone-blitz looks at him until he does. Honestly with all the doom and gloom around here it's remarkable Michigan is 4-1 and not 2-3. Something the team needs to remind themselves while they work on getting the new offense to actually click. 

Joined: 11/13/2010

MGoPoints: 12910

DrMantisToboggan

October 9th, 2019 at 3:53 PM ^

I'm sure people hate the 2016 Penn State comparison at this point, but they were 3-2 through 5 games, not 4-1.

Additionally:

Saquon Barkley was at 4.4 ypc, Charbonnet is at 4.3 ypc.

Trace McSorley's Passer Rating was 135.8, Shea's is currently 131.8

We are averaging slightly more yards per game than they were

 

...things don't feel great right now, but this Michigan offense is still pretty comparable to the 2016 Penn State offense at the same point in the season.

Joined: 11/26/2014

MGoPoints: 74183

WorldwideTJRob

October 9th, 2019 at 6:52 PM ^

I know...Penn St. also got beat down by a top 10 team on the road. Difference is their QB was in his first year of starting, so Somewhat naturally it was pretty excusable for him to struggle early in the season. Saquon as a result suffered too. Once McSorely started to improve, so did Barkley. While Zach is good he is nowhere near the talent of Saquon so to expect our offense to explode like PSU did may be a little too optimistic for me. Our best hope for improvement is getting a fresh face in there at QB and hope they bring the offense a spark. 

Joined: 07/05/2010

MGoPoints: 31149

DrMantisToboggan

October 9th, 2019 at 7:02 PM ^

I'll push back on this a little. New systems mostly wipe out the experience factor. If an offense is drastically different from something previously run, it can nullify what should be an experience advantage. I don't know that it matters that Shea is in a different point in his career now - they were both in year 1 of learning this offense.

As for the RBs, Charbonnet was rated higher as a recruit than Barkley was. Barkley didn't even finish in the top 100 of the composite, and was ranked about the same as Charbonnet when he committed to Penn State. To say Charbonnet is not as talented Barkley is only hindsight or a comparison of where each are right now. Based on recruiting rankings, there's a chance that Charbonnet ends up as good or better. He's younger, was just as heavily scouted, and graded higher at the same point in his life. Not a prediction from me, but you can't use Barkley's finished product against a younger player who came into college with even more accolades than Barkley did.

Joined: 11/26/2014

MGoPoints: 74183

NYC Fan3

October 9th, 2019 at 4:01 PM ^

North Carolina has a new coach along with a true freshman quarterback, Sam Howell.  They have played Clemson, South Carolina and Miami already this season.  

True Freshman, new coach through 6 games. 

257yds/gm passing, 63% completion, 7.9 yds/attempt, 15 TDs, 3 Ints

Shea through 5 games

210yds/gm passing, 58% completion, 7.6 yds/attempt, 6 TDs, 3 Ints

 

Joined: 01/01/2018

MGoPoints: 7613

andrewgr

October 10th, 2019 at 12:27 AM ^

Ohio State is a terrible matchup for Wisconsin.  The Buckeyes will win by 4 scores.

Penn State has the athletes and scheme to give OSU a challenge.  I don't care what anyone says, Michigan has athletes and it's in Ann Arbor, so I think there's a non-trivial chance that Michigan wins, regardless of what the records or stats are going into the game.  If I was a betting man, I'd say the cumulative probability of OSU losing one of those two games is probably near 50%.

But I will refrain from ever predicting a game on the internet ever again if OSU doesn't beat Wisconsin.  They're probably about 28 points better; even if things go awry, I'd expect a result similar to the National Championship game against Oregon, where Oregon had 4 takeways to OSU's 0, and still lost by three touchdowns.

(Yes, I am aware that the boxscore shows Oregon with one turnover, but it was a hail mary on the final play of the game.)

Joined: 11/15/2013

MGoPoints: 3059

CompleteLunacy

October 9th, 2019 at 2:48 PM ^

Did anyone expect Fields to come in and look like a Heisman candidate immediately? I mean sure we knew his talent would probably make him pretty damn good regardless, but the dude looks like Kyler Murray already...he can run well and he can pass well. Did not expect him to tear up MSU like they did.

Joined: 11/13/2010

MGoPoints: 12910

NittanyFan

October 9th, 2019 at 2:00 PM ^

PSU has not adjusted well on offense in 2 games this year - Pittsburgh and Purdue.

PSU's offense got off fairly well against Pittsburgh (I was impressed with the Panthers defense, they have some players).  180 yards on the first 3 drives.  But then it was a slog for the final 40 minutes.

PSU scored 28 in the 1st 16 minutes versus Purdue.  Then Purdue changed the D, just focused on keeping everything in front of them.  There were then a lot of 2nd half PSU punts.

That's the worry I have from the PSU POV.  They'll probably get some points early.  I wouldn't be surprised if PSU leads, say, 14-3 at some point in the 1st half.  But then how does the OC adjust when Iowa inevitably adjusts?

 

Joined: 12/04/2012

MGoPoints: 43168

NittanyFan

October 9th, 2019 at 1:53 PM ^

I know that "Home Iowa" has become a bit of a meme of late, but there are 4 B1G teams with MULTIPLE game winning streaks at Kinnick Stadium. 

Wisconsin has won 5 straight there.  Northwestern and Michigan State have won 2 straight there.  Even Purdue won their last visit there (2017), though their streak is only at 1 (non-multiple).

Home-field advantage is a thing, of course.  But I don't think Iowa's HFA is any greater than most teams HFA.

Joined: 12/04/2012

MGoPoints: 43168

NittanyFan

October 9th, 2019 at 2:10 PM ^

Thank you Greg Schiano!  You know, he's unemployed.  Can you offer him a job again?

Iowa was also 1 play away vs Penn State, of course, in 2017.

Wisconsin always seems to go in there and just grind out solid victories.  They've definitely been Iowa's kryptonite in the 2010s.  6-1 overall and 5-0 at Kinnick in the 2010s (weird that 5 of the 7 games have been in Iowa City, but such is with the changing B1G schedules this decade).

Joined: 12/04/2012

MGoPoints: 43168

Logan88

October 10th, 2019 at 8:54 PM ^

I'm way too lazy to look it up myself so I'll just ask: How many of those games have been night games?

It's really Iowa at home at NIGHT which is when they seem to be nearly unbeatable. But I'll admit that I am only going on feeling rather than explicit facts. Perhaps, it is just UM who can't beat Iowa at Kinnick at night.

Joined: 01/05/2009

MGoPoints: 8078