Analysis of MGoBlog's recruiting.....uh...analysis.

[Ed- I moved to diaries.]

I enjoy reading the recruiting reviews over the summer and I'm always intrigued by the ratings the blog applies for Variance, Ceiling, and General Excitement Level. I was wondering what it would look like if these were translated in a manner to get a better understanding of what the blog thinks about the potential for this recruiting class vs. the previous recruiting class.

I started by taking all of the word designations the blog uses and aligned them to a numerical scale. Nothing fancy, keeping it simple. 

I'd like a word with the editor. I know you never expected someone to waste time analyzing this, but it was a bit of a challenge deciding where to slot Abstemious vs. Meh-plus.

Now the analysis. Keep in mind, the size of classes vary and this is small data. For example, the 2021 D Backfield only had two recruits (1 CB & 1 S). 

I'll start with the easy comparison: Composite Recruiting Rankings: Here's a comparison of the 2022 vs 2021 rankings for the defensive class by position:

On defense, there was an overall increase in composite recruiting rankings, except for linebackers. To some degree, Michigan did see a benefit from their good season. 

Now the fun stuff:

Here's the rankings based on Variance. This is a little tricky. Low variance is a good thing when combined with a highly rated recruit. Higher variance could be a good thing with a lower rated recruit. In general, you want a lower score here. 

The higher ranked class (2022) has more variance, but that is primarily driven by the LB's. The DT's are slightly skewed because of Kenneth Grant. He had the largest (mammoth) variance rating. Mason Graham & Cam Goode had very low variance ratings. 

Here's the rankings based on Ceiling. The higher the number the better. You want a high ceiling. 

The 2022 class has a higher ceiling with a huge jump for the safeties. Interestingly, the blog thinks the LB class has just about the same ceiling potential as the 2021 class. A ray of hope! 

Here's the rankings by General Excitement Level (GEL). The higher the number the better. More excitement is a good thing! 

The 2022 class has a higher GEL primarily driven by the safeties and DE's. Again, the staff is about equally excited for this years LB's vs last years LB's, but generally are less excited about LB's vs other positions.  

Overall, the rankings and MGoBlog staff think Michigan got a really good class of safeties and they expect them to deliver. The D-Line should be slightly better than what Michigan brought in last year. The LB's while ranked lower has about as much upside and potential as last years class which was ranked really well.

What does it all mean? Who knows. No one, other than Rod Moore, thought Rod Moore would end up starting almost half the season. However, in general, I think the blog does a very good job of evaluating the incoming talent and how they will fit into the overall roster. 

Here's a comparison of the complete defensive class for 2021 vs 2022. I included rank, variance, and GEL. I left our ceiling because it pretty closely aligns with GEL & I wanted a cleaner chart.