24 team NCAA-style playoff model using CFP rankings

Submitted by Wolverine Devotee on

I put this together every year to show how the NCAA is actually getting it right.

The NCAA controls the championships for FCS, D2 and D3. The CFP is independent of the NCAA's control. 

 

  • Conference champions from all 10 conferences get automatic bids
  • First round byes for the 8 seeded teams
  • First and second round games are on campus

 

First Round -- Campus Sites -- December 10
^ Automatic qualifier

Matchup Location
Florida at West Virginia Morgantown, WV
Arkansas State^ at USC Los Angeles, CA
LSU at Louisville Louisville, KY
Temple^ at Oklahoma State Stillwater, OK
San Diego State^ at Florida State Tallhassee, FL
Utah at Auburn Auburn, AL
Western Kentucky^ at Colorado Boulder, CO
Stanford at Western Michigan^ Kalamazoo, MI

Second Round -- Campus Sites -- December 17

Matchup Location
1 Alabama vs West Virginia Tuscaloosa, AL
8 Wisconsin vs USC/Arkansas State Los Angeles, CA
4 Washington vs Louisville/LSU Seattle, WA
5 Penn State vs Oklahoma State/Temple University Park, PA
6 Michigan vs Florida State/San Diego State Ann Arbor, MI
3 Ohio State vs Auburn/Utah Columbus, OH
7 Oklahoma vs Colorado/Western Kentucky Norman, OK
2 Clemson vs Western Michigan/Stanford Clemson, SC

 

Ghost of Fritz…

December 5th, 2016 at 1:02 PM ^

does it does not mean it is a good idea for FBS.

There is already tons of excitement and huge fan bases for regular season games at the FBS level using the 'small playoff' model.  Do you really want to kill off interest in the FBS regular season?

Maybe the only way to generate any level of interest and/or fans for FCS level is to have a large playoff. 

 

Venom7541

December 5th, 2016 at 2:46 PM ^

Though this 24 team playoff looks interesting, big tournaments take the interest away from the regular season and moves it to a few weeks in playoff time. Look at basketball. What happens in the regular season really has little bearing on who plays for a national title. In football, every game matters and makes it 3 months of great entertainment. College football should go to 6 and leave it there.

Mongo

December 5th, 2016 at 4:45 PM ^

eliminate the conference title games and replace with 1st round on that date - top 8 ranked teams regardless of conference affiliation at an NFL neutral site in region of higher seed. Game and TV revenue split with all conferences after each participant's costs are covered. Winners advance to the CFP final 4 as structured with the bowls. Losers get a bowl game as currently structured.

1st Round on "Super Saturday":
1 Alabama vs 8 Wisconsin (12 noon, Tampa Raymond James)
2 Clemson vs 7 Oklahoma (3:30pm, Charlotte Bank America)
3 Ohio State vs 6 Michigan (7:00pm, Indy Lucas Oil)
4 Washington vs 5 Penn State (10:30pm, San Fran Levi)

m1817

December 5th, 2016 at 1:44 PM ^

Eliminate the conference championship games and replace them with the round of 8 and you will have just as many games to reach the CFP championship game as there are now.

Under the CFP system, conference championships are not as meaningful anymore.

wolverine1987

December 5th, 2016 at 12:58 PM ^

way to choose a champion. Flat out, if you are a three loss team, you do not DESERVE to win the national championship.  I hate the baskeball/football playoff analogy--football, is great precisely because if you lose more than two games you are out--that's why the regular season is so great--because every game is crucial. Lets just say in the OP's example, VA Tech wins the NC--that would be an outrage and in itself, wrong. It would not be a heartwarming tale of an underdog, it would strip the regular season of all meaning, and screw Bama and other more successful teams.

Yo_Blue

December 5th, 2016 at 12:28 PM ^

How the Hell do you expect college kids to play 4 extra games (5 if they are in the first round)?  After a 13th conference championship game, some team could play 18 games.

...and I'm not sure how your cart proves the NCAA "got it right".

Mr. Elbel

December 5th, 2016 at 1:18 PM ^

Look. 17 games is your max. Right now the max is 15, and that's essentially guaranteed every season baring an upset (i.e. osu wins the next two games since they didn't play in Indy). 17 is not guaranteed and is actually highly unlikely.

In this system the top 8 seeds get a first round bye. If you take the championship games out of group of 5 conferences and leave them in power 5 conferences, that almost guarantees that your best teams are going to be in the top 8, barring a major upset in a power 5 conference championship.

If you take out group of 5 championship winners, this year, you would essentially have Colorado at #10, Florida at #17, and VT at #22 as your only shots for a team to have played in its conference championship game AND also miss out on a top 8 first round bye. And the only way they play 17 games is IF they reach the national title game. That is insanely difficult.

Therefore, most years you're looking at 16 games max for a team. That's not at all unreasonable, and is really only one extra game on top of what most national champions in the current set-up might play.

superstringer

December 5th, 2016 at 12:42 PM ^

While I hate the "too many games" mantra, you have to take context into account.

I heard Bob Stoops say, and Urbs agreed this AM, that they already play too many games.  But that's BS.  The winner and loser play 15 games -- the same as FCS, D-II and D-III.  So adding one more game (e.g. 6 or 8 team playoff) is hardly "too many."  FBS teams (we'll have to rename that, right) have much larger rosters, their players are better trained, etc.  They can handle one more game.

Three more games, well, that's pushing it.  To the point that these other leagues "survive" with 16, 24 or 32 team playoffs -- yuou are IGNORING that they ONLY play 10 or 11 game schedules.  D-III is a 5-round playoff, but these teams only have 10 regular season games and (IIRC) no conf champ games.  So that's only 15 games max.  I think FCS has a four-game playoff, after an 11-game regular season.

If we insist on a 12-game regular season for (currently named) FBS, plus one weekend for championship games, we need to limit playoffs to 3 more games, probably.  Hence no more than 8 playoff teams.  If we "go back" in time and drop to 11 games (like the TV networks would ever allow that), then maybe you can get up to 16 teams.

ijohnb

December 5th, 2016 at 2:51 PM ^

I am noticing is that there is more discussion now regarding who should be the four playoff teams than there was as to who should have been the national champion in 1997.  I know it is not going to happen but I wish they would scrap the system entirely.  I know people are having a hard time seeing because it is relatively new but this system has the potential to ruin college football.  There is way too much talk about the playoff and not enough talk about football.  There is a lot of football before and after the Playoff games, and I used to enjoy it.  Now I am just sick of hearing about it.  Trending toward NFL style over-saturation.  I seriously don't care about the Playoff at this point and am just angry we did not The Game.

A four hour Playoff Selection show?  Are you kidding me?   

Mr. Elbel

December 5th, 2016 at 12:57 PM ^

he basically took the way the brackets work in all the other divisions and plugged in the current seeds. the reason this system the way it is in the FCS and down is that they have 11-game seasons to make room for the extended playoffs, with no break in between unless your team gets a first round bye. teams that potentially get by through a first round game play a max of 15 games on the season. with conference championships, a 16-team fbs playoff would likely require at least an extra game, probably two to get the regular season back to 13 games, putting the max to 17 games if a lower seed made the championship game. this would likely only happen with a team that lost its conference championship game (to take them out of the top seeds with byes) but then runs the table in the tournament. not impossible, but still difficult to get to 17 games with that model.

Moonlight Graham

December 5th, 2016 at 12:33 PM ^

especially if these games could replace many of the bowl games, or if first-round losers get matched up into bowls. No sarcasm. 

Political reasons aside (in order to keep the nmber of total games reasonable this would not only need to replace some bowl games but the conference championship games as well), student athletes would need to be training all year like NFL players to be ready for something like this (up to 18 games), and then only 4 and then 2 teams would end up needing to run this full gauntlet anyway. 

I like it in theory though, if players were bionic. 

lhglrkwg

December 5th, 2016 at 12:35 PM ^

You could make a playoff work with 12 - 16 teams easily. Everyone acts like it's unheard of to do a playoff that big despite the fact that high school, DIII, DII, FCS, and the NFL all have fairly large playoff brackets. I don't know why everyone thinks the wheel has to be reinvented when discussing FBS football playoffs

superstringer

December 5th, 2016 at 12:45 PM ^

"The 12th game was completel pointless."

Yet they added it.  Why?  Oh right... MONEY.

That 12th game is revenue to the big schools, and a payday to bottom feeders going to get slaughtered by the big schools.  It's more games for ESPN, meaning, more advertising.  More tickets etc.

Good luck getting rid of it.

Stay.Classy.An…

December 5th, 2016 at 12:37 PM ^

I don't understand what the big deal is? These games would be HUGE draws and the NCAA loves MONEY. Eliminate the Conference Championship games and one OOC game. This would take the total down to 15 or 16 games depending on how you are seeded. Which seems more than doable to me, true athletes want to earn it on the field. I bet most of the above teams would be itching for a chance to win the National Championship. 

Moonlight Graham

December 5th, 2016 at 12:48 PM ^

the Group of Five. Division 1 plays this CFP thing. Division "1A" is the Group of 5 and they do this instead of having conference championship games; Division 1AA and DII continue to have a 16-team playoff, etc.

What would be better for Western: Winning a D1A or Group of Five National Championship or lose in the Cotton Bowl? I know, the Cotton payout is probably millions more, but does it have to be? North Dakota State seems pretty happy. 

Mr. Elbel

December 5th, 2016 at 1:51 PM ^

the max is already 17, but effectively it's really 16. Unless a team gets to their conference championship game but ends up not getting a first round bye (top 8), and THEN makes the championship game. that's the only way you get to 17. otherwise, it's 16 games max.

DanInTexas

December 5th, 2016 at 2:35 PM ^

I looked back at the past 10 or so years and a 6-team playoff isn't pretty (assuming P5 conference champions are guaranteed a spot):

In 2015, pick one from AP#5 12-1 Iowa, AP#7 11-1 Ohio State (both of whom lost to MSU), and AP#18 12-1 Houston

In 2014, everything works out pretty as Baylor/TCU combine to take the Big XII champion slot + the at-large slot. No one else has fewer than 2 losses

In 2013, pick one from AP#3 11-1 Alabama, AP#7 12-1 Ohio State, AP#15 11-1 UCF

In 2012, undefeated Notre Dame takes the only at-large spot, so AP#4 S&P+#3 11-1 Florida, AP#5 S&P+#4 11-1 Oregon, and 12-1 Northern Illinois are left out.

In 2011, pick one from AP#2 11-1 Alabama, AP#4 11-1 Stanford, AP#8 11-1 Boise State

In 2010, undefeated AP#3 TCU (Mountain West) takes the only at-large spot, so AP#5 S&P+#6 11-1 Stanford, AP#6 S&P+#3 11-1 Ohio State, AP#7 S&P+#29 Michigan State, and AP#10 S&P+#1(!!!) 11-1 Boise State are all left out.

In 2009, pick one from undefeated AP#3 TCU,  undefeated AP#4 Cincinnati, and 12-1 AP#5 S&P+#1(!!!) Florida

In 2008, pick one from undefeated AP#7 Utah,  undefeated AP#9 Boise State, 11-1 AP#4 Texas, 12-1 AP#5 Alabama, and 11-1 AP#8 Texas Tech

In 2007, only 3 teams have fewer than 2 losses, but only one gets an auto-bid. The other two are 12-0 AP#10 Hawaii and 11-1 AP#8 Kansas(!!!). AP#4 10-2 Georgia and AP#7 11-2 Missouri could also make an argument.

In 2006, even with 4 additional teams getting a chance to play for the title, Michigan is not guaranteed an opportunity after losing in Football Armageddon #1. Also fighting for that last spot are AP#5 11-1 Louisville, AP#6 11-1 Wisconsin, and AP#9 12-0 Boise State.

For the most part, there is just as much, if not more, controversy as a 4-team playoff.

 

I think an 8-team playoff with P5 conference champions + the top Group of 5 team + 2 at large makes the most sense.

Stay.Classy.An…

December 5th, 2016 at 12:46 PM ^

FCS: 16 - 11 regular season games 

Division 2: 24 - 11 regular season games

Division 3: 32 - 10 regular season games

*All from NCAA website* 

So, two OOC games, 9 regular season games = not complicated!