Yet Another CC Roundup, Part the Third: Fringe Candidates!

Submitted by Eye of the Tiger on

Welcome to the third installment of "Yet Another CC Roundup!" (Part 1 and part 2.) In this edition, I examine several fringe candidates--a fuzzy category including low probability hires and those who should be low probability hires. As usual, there are 4 serious and 1 not-so-serious profiles included.

 

1. Bob Stitt

POTENTIAL UPSIDE: Everyone’s favorite fringe candidate is a bona fide offensive innovator--arguably this decade's Rich Rodriguez (at WVU). So at the least we’d probably run some cool plays that aren’t read pre-snap by literally everyone watching the game. In a best case scenario we could see an offense literally no one is prepared to defend (yet).

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE: The Rich Rodriguez experience didn't travel well to Ann Arbor. And he, at least, came in with a record of success at a Big East school.

TRANSITION COSTS: High. We don’t run anything remotely resembling that offense, recruiting would almost certainly nosedive and attrition would be significant.

OVERALL DESIRABILITY: As an HC? Let’s be honest here—it’s low. Running a "blue blood" program clearly takes a lot more than schematic innovation; some of those things are invariably annoying and frustrating to us as fans, but it would be naive to pretend they aren't real. At the least Stitt would need several years to acclimate, and we’re just not that patient anymore. 

CHANCES OF HIM COMING: Close to non-existent, unless we’re talking about a potentially open offensive coordinator position. Would he take that? I don’t know, but it’s the only thing we’d plausibly offer.

 

2. Greg Schiano

POTENTIAL UPSIDE: A more irritating, less sympathetic version of Iowa under Kirk Ferentz.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:  A more irritating, less sympathetic version of Michigan since 2013.

TRANSITION COSTS: Low. That’s something I guess.

OVERALL DESIRABILITY: Extremely low. Schiano only surpassed 10 wins once in eleven tries at Rutgers. Meanwhile, his two-year stint with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was an unmitigated disaster--marked by palace intrigue, backstabbing and frequent losses. As far as I'm concerned, Schiano may be the worst possible hire of all the discussed candidates.

CHANCES OF HIM COMING: If offered? A near certainty. But let’s just hope that never comes to pass.

 

3. Paul Chryst

POTENTIAL UPSIDE: Wisconsin! I mean, who does more with less in the Big 10? Plus now that he’s gotten some HC experience at Pitt, Chryst might be able to pull a Dantonio and implement something comprehensive, sustainable and well-suited to talent pool in the upper Midwest.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE: For the record, Pitt is not very good.

TRANSITION COSTS: Low. He runs an inside-zone based scheme on offense, would probably hire to fit personnel on defense.

OVERALL DESIRABILITY: Moderate. He’s a good fit in most ways, but again—Pitt. Granted, Pitt is a terrible job—even Todd Graham did poorly there. But Chryst hasn’t really shown any signs of genius once separated from Alvarez and Bielema either. Always possible he just called the plays at Wisconsin and so wouldn’t deserve much credit for the recruitment-and-development program that has driven their recent successes. He may be a great coach in the long-term scheme of things, but purely as a candidate for HC at this exact moment in time, Chryst feels like a poor man's McElwain to me.

CHANCES OF HIM COMING: If offered? High. But the chances we offer it to him are low to moderate. Chryst is either a backup plan or a backup to the backup plan. Or not on any sort of plan.

 

4. Bret Bielema

POTENTIAL UPSIDE: Wisconsin with a richer talent base: tough defenses paired with high scoring, inside zone-based offenses, producing lots of wins in the crappy Big 10. Wears headset while pointing.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE: Similar caveats about the Wisconsin experience being portable. They’ve built that machine over decades. Plus if you look at his record, the first three years look eerily like Hoke’s—do we have that kind of patience?

TRANSITION COSTS: As low as you can go. He runs an inside-zone based scheme on offense and knows how to get the most out of his defensive roster.

OVERALL DESIRABILITY: High for a fringe candidate. Regardless of how you feel about him personally, Bielema is a perfect fit for our personnel, and is another one of those “should be able to do what Hoke was supposed to do” type candidates (especially since, after declines in years 1-3 at Wisconsin, he then rattled off four straight quality seasons). In total, he coached 7 seasons at Wisconsin, and did this: 3/7 Big Ten Championships, 4/7 10+ wins and 6/7 ranked at the end of the year with a total winning pct of .739. His 1-5 record vs. OSU does give pause, but would we not kill for the rest right now? Plus he recruits and develops players very well, and now Arkansas has even won a couple big games in the SEC West--that makes him orders of magnitude more desirable than, say, Schiano. At the same time, it's hard to see us make a move for him if any of the marquee candidates are still in the mix.

CHANCES OF HIM COMING: Moderate. Tony Gerdeman argues that Bielema might plausibly look for a return to the Big 10, since paying him Hoke’s salary would constitute a big raise and the SEC West is impossible. Gerdeman also contends that Bielema would relish the opportunity to “stick it to Barry Alvarez” (for reasons that are unclear to me, but maybe it's true). On the other hand, this is just idle speculation on Gerdeman's part and there’s apparently the trifling matter of a $12.8 million buyout as well. So if we were interested, it would all come down to whether Arkansas wanted to fight to keep him (I think—help me out here if you know more about how these buyout things work).

 

5.Layne Kiffin

POTENTIAL UPSIDE: He can run an offense, that’s for sure. Already has experience at two historical programs that feel the weight of history as well. Maybe third time’s the charm?

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE: Those experiences were primarily negative.

TRANSITION COSTS: Short-term costs would be pretty low. Long-term? Don’t even ask.

OVERALL DESIRABILITY: Extremely low, due to T.O. effect, in which an undeniably talented and capable figure produces right off the bat but then begins to corrode the program from within. Added benefit of more time at Alabama potentially having that effect on Saban's program.

CHANCES OF HIM COMING: Low but not impossible. No one has ever mentioned Kiffin as a serious candidate at Michigan, but you just know he’s angling for another HC job, and there are only two good ones on the market this year (so far). This guy must interview well, because he’s got bad idea jeans written all over him. Thankfully Floridian weather is more visor-friendly.

Comments

tricks574

November 29th, 2014 at 12:09 AM ^

Plus, he's running one of the top offense's in D2 while recruiting players to a school that is about as hard to get into as Michigan, only it's 1/10th the size. 



I know he's not a realistic candidate but damn it he's a good football coach and I hope someone hires him so I can see him at work more often.

Stringer Bell

November 28th, 2014 at 4:30 PM ^

I could warm up to the idea of Bret Bielema.  He is starting to get Arkansas on track in, as you said, by far the toughest division in college football.  Plus given all the success he had at Wisconsin, I'd like to see what he could do with the type of talent that Michigan reels in.  Certainly well behind guys like Harbaugh and Miles, but wouldn't be the worst choice in the world.

 

The rest of them?  I'll pass

M-Dog

November 29th, 2014 at 12:28 AM ^

Wisconsin was one or two 4-star DB's away from winning 3 Rose Bowls.

Michigan can recruit those kinds of DBs.

He's a dick and runs a boring out-of-date offense, but he knows what he is doing.

I always thought the biggest obstacle to him coming here is "Why would he leave the SEC when he is rasing some eyebrows there, and he just left the Big Ten recently."

But now he's probably thinking "I've got a team that could play for the Big Ten championship and i'm in last place in the SEC West.  Who needs that shit?"

 

Sac Fly

November 29th, 2014 at 12:13 AM ^

As crazy as it sounds, he's probably out the door. Fans were getting tired of 10 wins and a Non-BCS bowl and this was the last straw.

This team should be in the playoff; they didn't have to play either of the Mississippi teams, Alabama or LSU and got Auburn at home. Blowing that game at Florida just summed up the last 8 years of Georgia football.

schreibee

November 29th, 2014 at 12:49 AM ^

Mark Richt is a classic example of a guy who shoud take a year off if he's done at UGa. He needs to watch some others play football, recharge the old batteries... and has he ever even BEEN North of Tennessee?

Tater

November 29th, 2014 at 2:56 AM ^

I wish nobody would ever mention Greg Schiano again.  He was 68-67 at Rutgers and 11-21 with Tampa Bay.  Brady Hoke v2 on the field and more abrasive than Jim Harbaugh off the field.  No, thanks.

scmaize

November 29th, 2014 at 10:25 PM ^

If we're talking about fringe candidates (and former Tampa Bay coaches), then what about Raheem Morris, currently DB coach for the Washington Redskins?  He's a defensive guy, only 38, and seems to have a lot of potential.  Biggest knock might be limited experience in college coaching.  His last stint was defensive coordinator at Kansas State in 2006.  Other college jobs were Hofstra (his alma mater) and Cornell, so he doesn't seem to have Midwest connections, but is not a warm weather guy.  He's from tough Irvingon, NJ, and there are plenty of Michigan fans in NJ.  (I lived there for several years.)  He had mixed success as HC at Tampa Bay, but it's a hard place to win, and he was promoted with a total of only one month as an NFL coordinator. I think he was one of only two Shanahan assistants that Jay Gruden kept when he took over.  He seems to be loyal.  Right after Shanahan offered him the job as DB coach, he was offered the defensive coordinator job with the Vikings, and turned it down because he'd given his word to Washington.  Suppose he has limited experience with recruiting, but I think it could be a strong suit once he gets started.  People say he's a charismatic guy, and that players love playing for him.  The Michigan job is certainly a step up from his current position, and he could be here a long time IF the NFL isn't the destination job he wants.