Big Ten Tournament kicks off Saturday and goes through Sunday where the finals will air on the BTN at 4pm. 

 

To start, let me say the strength of a tournament is singling out the top teams and finding a champion.  Slotting the remaining teams into where they belong is where its weakness is to me.  It will be interesting to see how the Iowa Penn State battle will play out as I see them as the favorites to win it and they may be separated by a very slim margin.  Minnesota isn’t far behind if both seem to falter.  From there your looking at 3 teams fighting for 4^th-6^th in Wisconsin, Michigan and Northwestern.  Illinois, Indiana and Purdue look to have solid showings.  Ohio State and Michigan State will be the bottom dwellers.  If you’d like to see a very pro-Iowa outlook, check here. 

 

Here’s a weight by weight break down of the tournament:

 

125

 

Bracket Outlook:  This weight is setting up for a McDonough(Iowa) Precin(NW) final.  The only thing coming close to making this not happen may be the semi-final with Precin and Sanders(Minn), but, I still don’t see that happening.  After Sanders there is a bit of a drop-off to Pataky(PSU) and Boyle(UM).  Pataky, a senior, spent some time injured having returned just a few weeks ago.  He split two matches with Boyle, winning the latter.  Another drop-off from there as about 4 guys will have a legitimate fight for the final 3 spots. Top 5 spots get automatic bids to NCAA’s.

 

Favorite to win: Matt McDonough(Iowa)

 

Top contenders: Brandon Precin(NW), Zach Sanders(Minn)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine: With the 5^th seed, Boyle is already in the quarterfinals in probably his biggest match against Pataky(PSU).  Winning that match sets up the best path for him to place high.  Losing that quarterfinal would drop him on the side of the consolation bracket that would run into the Sanders(Minn) Precin(NW) loser before the 3^rd place match.  Both I consider a lose for Boyle.  I’m not optimistic he gets into the semi’s and see him winning one match in the consolations before getting slotted into the 5^th place match, where he would be the favorite.  That would get him his NCAA bid.  Probable Target Range: 4^th-5^th.

 

Prediction:

1. McDonough(Iowa)
2. Precin(NW)
3. Sanders(Minn)
4. Pataky(PSU)
5. Boyle(UM)
6. Brooks(IU)
7. Eppert(PUR)
8. Kelliher(UW)

 

133

 

Bracket Outlook:  Loaded weight for the B1G.  Semi’s will provide just as much entertainment as the finals with 4 guys I wouldn’t be surprised if any of them won it all.  Long(PSU) has in my mind been wrestling the best down the stretch.  A bit of a surprise he got the #1 seed though.  Graff(UW) had been the favorite until his loss to Long.  Ramos(Iowa) went undefeated in B1G duals, with beating Long and no wrestling Graff.  Long will have to get past a surging Futrell(ILL) who should get to the semi’s but has the toughest quarterfinal with Mele(NW).  Graff and Ramos are the other semi.  Those 4 will figure out the top places.  I don’t see anyone beating Mele for 5^th.  8 spots get automatic bids to NCAA’s.  So if all the seeded wrestlers (Thorn(Minn), Stevens(UM), Paddock(OSU)) wrestle to expectations, they’re all in.  Paddock may be the most in risk.

 

Favorite to win: Long(PSU)

 

Top Contenders: Ramos(Iowa), Graff(UW), Futrell(ILL)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine: A 7 seed for Stevens will see him have to get a first round win to make sure he places.  After that he’ll run into Graff(UW).  From there he’ll run into a very important match in the consolations with Thorn(Minn).  Thorn won this matchup earlier in a dual 11-7.  Winning that match guarantees a 5^th place match where he wouldn’t be the favorite against Mele(NW) but would do no worse then 6^th.  With 8 qualifiers he shouldn’t have a problem there. Probable Target range: 5^th-7^th.

 

Prediction:

1.      Long(PSU)

2.      Graff(UW)

3.      Ramos(Iowa)

4.      Futrell(ILL)

5.      Mele(NW)

6.      Stevens(UM)

7.      Thorn(Minn)

8.      Paddock(OSU)

 

141

 

Bracket Outlook:  The premier weight for the B1G.  The winner here might very well be the tournaments outstanding wrestler.  The top 4 seeds are the top 4 ranked wrestlers in the nation and the 5^th seed is ranked 7^th.  Russell(UM) has beat them all this year, but, they have been close matches.  Kennedy(ILL) spent some time injured.  Another weight were the semi’s will be just as entertaining with Russell and Kennedy (pending Kennedy beats 7^th ranked Alton(PSU) in the quarters) and Marion(Iowa) Thorn(Minn).  Hard to pick against Russell since he’s been winning them all.  Since Marion’s return, I don’t think there has been a better contender for that #1 spot.  I see a clash of them in the finals.  Thorn and Kennedy will be a good 3^rd place match.  Alton and Friedley(NW) should manage to get the last of the 6 automatic bids.

 

Favorite to win: Russell(UM)

 

Top Contenders: Thorn(Minn), Marion(Iowa), Kennedy(ILL)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine:  Russell is the 1 seed and favorite to win.  Won’t be easy though.  He’ll have 4^th ranked Kennedy in the semi’s and the winner of 2^nd ranked Marion or 3^rd ranked Thorn.  He’s beat them all, but, Marion had the best shot at knocking him off this year. Probable Target range: 1^st-4^th.

 

Prediction:

1. Russell(UM)
2. Marion(Iowa)
3. Thorn(Minn)
4. Kennedy(ILL)
5. Alton(PSU)
6. Friedley(NW)
7. Fleckenstein(PUR)
8. McQuade(UW)

 

149

 

Bracket Outlook:  Here is a weight with a clear front-runner, a good guess at his finals opponent and then a lot of questions.  Molinaro(PSU) and Nadhir(NW) seem like the most likely to find the finals with Molinaro to win.  Schmitt(UW) is the biggest question mark.  Had a high ranking before being injured earlier in the year and since returning has been unimpressive.  Terrazas(ILL) and Kinser(IU) have had solid years.  Grajales(UM) has been extremely inconsistent notching some impressive wins with head scratching losses.  In the B1G tourney there is less surprises unlike the NCAA’s.  With 8 bids, the seeded guys should all manage.

 

Favorite to win: Molinaro(PSU)

 

Top Contenders: Nadhir(NW)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine:  Grajales has a 6 seed needing to get into the quarters to make sure to place.  From there I don’t see a certain unless he got to the finals against Molinaro(PSU), but, a more then likely loss in the semis against Nadhir(NW) or in the quarters against Kinser(IU).  Grajales has the potential to do damage, but, Im not extremely confident in him.  Lots of tough matches and being a bit undersized and young, makes for a tough go.  I think Kinser nips him in the quarters leaving him to beat Osterman(MSU) again to solidify the 5^th place match and getting there after losing to Terrazas(ILL).  Could find the question mark Schmitt(UW) here for 5^th.  With 8 bids, I think he’s safe to get that.  Probable Target Range: 2^nd-6^th.

 

Prediction:

1. Molinaro(PSU
2. Nadhir(NW)
3. Terrazas(ILL)
4. Kinser(IU)
5. Grajales(UM)
6. Schmitt(UW)
7. Osterman(MSU)
8. Zilverburg(Minn)

 

157

 

Bracket Outlook:  Taylor(PSU) has been impressive here all year, beating everyone decisively.  St.John(Iowa) will have a good semi with Welch(NW) that I see St.John winning.  That semi will be better then the final.  I don’t see anyone else that could get Welch after that.  Salazar(PUR) and Young(IU) will be the two most likely to get that 3^rd place match with Welch.  The biggest match for a bid might be in the consolations between Zeerip(UM) and McMurray(MSU).  Winner there clinches a bid.

 

Favorite to win: Taylor(PSU)

 

Top contenders: St. John(Iowa), Welch(NW)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine:  Zeerip is a curious case.  He got the nod over McMurray(MSU) for the 6 seed even though he just lost to him 8-2.  He has the ability to compete with anyone after the top contenders.  He’ll have Welch early in the quarters sending him to the consolations.  There he’ll draw that crucial bout with McMurray.  He wins there and he could fight his way to the 3^rd place match.  A loss and no auto-bid.  Probable Target Range: 4^th-7^th.

 

Prediction:

1. Taylor(PSU)
2. St. John(Iowa)
3. Welch(NW)
4. Salazar(PUR)
5. Young(IU)
6. McMurray(MSU)
7. Zeerip(UM)
8. Mincey(Minn)

 

165

 

Bracket Outlook:  Big wrench was thrown in here when Howe(UW) said he was coming back.  He suffered a major knee injury early in the season and this tournament will be his first action since.  He is a 2 time B1G champ and returning National champ.  But, if there was a weight more wide open to walk in and win after an injury, this might be it.  Not to say it doesn’t have it share of solid wrestlers though.  How healthy and how far Howe can go is the biggest wildcard.  Sponseller(OSU) was the favorite before the return.  Yohn(Minn) and Janssen(Iowa) recently had a tight 6-4 match that Yohn came out ahead on.  They’ll push Howe and Sponseller before most likely ending up fighting for 3^rd.  Yates(UM) and Polz(ILL) will probably find themselves in a very important match for 5^th considering there is only 5 bids available here.

 

Favorite to win: Howe(UW)

 

Top contenders: Sponseller(OSU), Janssen(IA), Yohn(MN)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine:  Yates got a 6 seed and will run into Yohn(Minn) who has beat him earlier.  He’ll drop to the consolations and find LaBlanc(IU) most likely.  He’ll need that to guarantee a 5^th place match and unless he beats the Janssen(Iowa) Howe(UW) loser, that’s where he’ll be.  Probably have Polz(ILL) there in that critical battle for the last bid.  Probable Target Range: 5^th-6^th.

 

Prediction:

1. Howe(UW)
2. Sponseller(OSU)
3. Yohn(MN)
4. Janssen(Iowa)
5. Polz(ILL)
6. Yates(UM)
7. LaBlanc(IU)
8. Bialka(NW)

 

174

 

Bracket Outlook:  Fr. Ruth(PSU) is primed to win here, but, it’s a tight battle for who the next best is.  Glasser(Minn) has a tough road, but, might be that guy.  He’ll have to avenge to Jordan(UW) and beat 2 seed Heflin(OSU) again to get to the finals.  Manuel(PUR) got a bad seed in my mind as he could very well be the second best guy, but, finds himself, as the 4 seed, taking on Ruth in the semi’s. That’s is he can tackle the tough task of Lofthouse(Iowa).  It’s a very tough side of the bracket.  Any of the other sides 4 top seeds wouldn’t be extremely surprising if they went all the way as well.  I think Heflin is most likely to fall short of his seeding.  The depth at this weight for the B1G is evident in their 8 bids.

 

Favorite to win: Ruth(PSU)

 

Top Contenders: Manuel(PUR), Lofthouse(Iowa), Glasser(Minn), Heflin(OSU)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine:  Zeerip caught a 7^th seed, one below Jordan(UW) who he beat.  Zeerip has some impressive wins under his belt, including Jordan and Glasser(Minn).  That 7 seed will pit him against Heflin in the quarters who he lost to 2-1 this year.  Getting a win there would bring the Jordan Glasser winner in the semi’s, which again, he has beat both.  That’s 2 doable wins away from being in the finals and would be huge for Michigan.  While there isn’t a match, until he’d make the finals, that he would be overmatched, there also isn’t an easy bout.  Losing to Heflin probably brings Jordan and then Manuel(PUR)/Lofthouse(Iowa).  I think there is a good chance he could run into Heflin again for 5^th.  At the least, shouldn’t have a problem getting his bid to NCAA’s.  Probable Target Range:  2^nd-7^th.

 

Prediction:

1. Ruth(PSU)
2. Glasser(Minn)
3. Manuel(PUR)
4. Lofthouse(Iowa)
5. Heflin(OSU)
6. Zeerip(UM)
7. Jordan(UW)
8. Jacobs(MSU)

 

184

 

Bracket Outlook:  Rutt(UW) looks like the favorite here with a final against Steinhaus(Minn) most likely.  That’s going off how Steinhaus looked in his dual beating Grambrall(Iowa).  From there things get pretty close among the rest.  Dallago(ILL) and Hinton(MSU) will be a good quarter match.  The consolation bracket will be full of tough matches as well.  This is a key weight for the team score with Iowa and PSU.  Gambrall could help the cause with a big win over Steinhaus in the semi’s.  Wright(PSU) has had a disappointing season to this point and he needs to turn in a much better showing for the Lions.  He’s a big move wrestler, capable of catching anyone.  6 bids up for grabs and the last three could be a fight among 5 wrestlers. 

 

Favorite to win: Rutt(UW)

 

Top Contenders: Gambrall(Iowa), Steinhaus(Minn)

 

Where might you find your Wolverine:  You won’t find Collins seeded.  The only Wolverine to miss out.  He’ll need to pick up a win in that first round in order to make the podium.  Collins only wins have been against other unseeded wrestlers, with no promising showing in his losses to others.  Placing would be tough for him.  Getting a bid seems out of the question.  Probable Target Range: 8^th-Not Place.

 

Prediction:

1. Rutt(UW)
2. Steinhaus(Minn)
3. Gambrall(Iowa)
4. Dallago(ILL)
5. Wright(PSU)
6. Kissel(PUR)
7. Hinton(MSU)
8. Magrum(OSU)

 

197

 

Bracket Outlook:  Lots of top level talent here for the B1G.  The top 6 seeds rank in the top 11 nationally.  Figuring out who makes a run may be tricky here.  Lofthouse(Iowa) has been on a tear and looked impressive.  He hasn’t wrestled the favored and 2^nd ranked Brandvold(UW) though.  Also, Yohn(Minn) has made a less then impressive return from injury lately, but, before that was one of the top contenders nationally.  He looked very rusty against Lofthouse in their dual, but, its been two weeks since then.  Yohn kicks off with a tough quarterfinal draw against Powless(IU).  The Brown(PUR) Biondo(UM) quarter will be another good one that round.  The semi’s will be stacked, but, I can’t see anything other then a Brandvold, Lofthouse final.  6 bids are available here and after the top six seeds, there is a pretty obvious drop-off.  I don’t think there will be any other surprises there.

 

Favorite to win: Brandvold(UW)

 

Top Contenders: Lofthouse(Iowa), Yohn(Minn)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine:  Biondo is the bottom man among the to 6.  I see him falling out of the championship bracket quick with a loss to Brown(PUR) in the quarters.  Then assuring his bid with a win in the consolations against Barczak(ILL).  From there, a combination of Yohn(Minn)/Powless(IU) in the next round and for 5^th, will be where he ends up.  Both of which I don’t see him winning.  Probable Target Range: 6^th.

 

Prediction:

1. Brandvold(UW)
2. Lofthouse(Iowa)
3. Yohn(MN)
4. Brown(PUR)
5. Powless(IU)
6. Biondo(UM)
7. Barczak(ILL)
8. Capone(OSU)

 

285

 

Bracket Outlook:  The big boys.  Wade(PSU) is the favorite, although vulnerable. He’s lost to Rizqallah(MSU) and needed to pull off a big comeback pin to beat Apland(UM).  Alcala’s(IU) only loss has been to Wade.  The 3^rd seed Rasing(Iowa) has been on a rise of late, knocking off some top competition.  Throw in Apland and Nelson(Minn) and I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of those 5 win it all.  Most likely, you’ll see a Wade Alcala final though.  I’m not convinced Rasing can continue his hot streak and see Apland knocking him off in consolations.  Nelson might be the most likely to stop Wade and make the finals.

 

Favorite to win: Wade(PSU)

 

Top Contenders: Alcala(IU), Nelson(Minn), Rasing(Iowa), Apland(UM)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine:  Apland has had a disappointing finish to his regular season.  He caught a tough seed at 5, having to face Nelson out of the gate in the quarters.  That leaves a lot of work to be done in consolations.  Will find himself in a key match against Rasing to get into the 3^rd place match.  I think he pulls it off and might see Nelson again for 3^rd.  Probable Target Range: 1^st-5^th.

 

Prediction:

1. Wade(PSU)
2. Alcala(IU)
3. Nelson(Minn)
4. Apland(UM)
5. Rasing(IA)
6. Bugenhagen(UW)
7. Rizqallah(MSU)
8. Kuhar(NW)

 

 

Team Score

 

Like I said, this looks like a PSU Iowa battle.  It could come down to the bonus points each wrestler can pick up for them, but, most likely, how a few weights work out will be the difference. 

 

For Penn State, they go in with 5 top seeds and favorites win each weight.  3 of those weights I don’t see PSU being tested (149,157,174).  The other two are pivotal towards edging the Hawkeyes (133,285).  Those both have serious contenders from Iowa in Ramos(133) and Rasing(285).  Penn State needs to make sure they cash in where they are favored as much as they can since they are hurt by 2 weak weights (165,197) to Iowa’s 1 (149).  If Wright at 184 and Pataky at 125 both come in with top 4 finishes and the 5 favorites come through with any big stumbles, Penn State walks away with it.   

 

Iowa is working with a more well rounded lineup then having heavy hitters.  125 with McDonough is the only weight they are favored.  But, the Hawkeyes will be shooting to place in the top 4 at up to 9 weights.  They have a history of turning it on come tournament time and some of the key weights they need to do that in may be motivated after their low points against Minnesota.

 

Minnesota’s the only team with 10 seeded wrestlers.  They are just lacking the firepower to pick up enough points to get in the mix. 

 

The battle for 4^th will be fun, although, Michigan has beat each of the contenders here heads up.  In a tournament though, Wisconsin may have the advantage.  They have 4 legit shots at B1G champions with Howe making a return.  Those go a long way in moving up the tournament ladder.  Northwestern has a couple shots at the finals earning them some decent points.

 

For Michigan its all about placing.  They look to place in all but 1 weight.  Hitting the high end of their target ranges will make a push at Wisconsin for 4^th.  As I see it, 5^th may be where they end up.

 

Team Prediction:

 

1.      Penn State

2.      Iowa

3.      Minnesota

4.      Wisconsin

5.      Michigan

6.      Northwestern

7.      Illinois

8.      Indiana

9.      Purdue

10.  Ohio State

11.  Michigan State