UofM - MSU Season Stat Comparisons
Point Differential Per Game vs All Opponents
UofM +23.3 (37.7-14.3)
MSU +15.6 (34.3-18.7)
Yardage Differential Per Game vs All Opponents
UofM +143.9 (442.9-299)
MSU +45.3 (451.7-406.4)
Strength of Schedule per Sagarin
UofM 27th
MSU 49th
Versus Common Opponents:
Vs. Nebraska
MSU +3* points (23-20 OT) and -188 yards (254-442).
UofM +3 points (32-29) and +28 yards (459-431).
Difference EVEN point differential and Michigan +216 yards net yardage advantage.
Vs. Northwestern
MSU +17 points (38-21) and +111 yards (511-400).
UofM +26 points (33-7) and +224 yards (457-233).
Difference UofM +9 points and +123 yards net yardage advantage.
Vs. Rutgers
MSU +18 points (31-13) and +211 yards (588-377).
UofM +7 points (20-13) and -76 yards (275-352).
Difference MSU +11 points and +287 yards.
PFF on the Front 7 on Defense
UofM #2 in the Country
MSU #4 in the Country
Wisconsin #5 in the Country
If we can use our front 7 to keep Walker III in check that will go a long ways in winning the game. Because Wisconsin's front 7 on defense is similar to MSU's in ranking - here is how we did running the ball against Wisconsin:
Haskins 19 carries, 47 yards = 2.5 avg
Corum 15 carries, 46 yards = 3.1 avg
TOTAL 44 carried, 112 yards = 2.5 avg
If we can't run the ball well against MSU, like we didn't do particularly well against Wisconsin, we will certainly need to pass the ball well. Versus Wisconsin Cade was 17/28, 197 yards, 2 TDs, 0 Ints and McCarthy was 1/1, 56 yards, 1 TD, 0 Ints.
Sagarin Prediction
The Second half of the Rutgers game was ugly, but we do seem to be the better team on paper. We've let a few more big plays go then we'd like and MSU seems to excel at big plays between Walker, Nailor, and Reed. If we can limit MSU's big plays, we should win this game and control this game well.
Before they factor in our Northwestern game, Sagarin's "Predictor" metric has UofM winning by 6 points (87.05 UofM - 77.87 MSU -3 points for road game = 6.18)
October 23rd, 2021 at 5:24 PM ^
Six points is a little close when Sparty Bob is in the house.
October 23rd, 2021 at 5:55 PM ^
Interesting stats, thanks for posting!
When the two teams are any good these games often come down to intangibles and dumb luck. I agree that Michigan should have a slight edge.
October 24th, 2021 at 8:24 AM ^
On everything except the "dumb luck" side. That is Sparty's forte.
October 23rd, 2021 at 6:38 PM ^
Fancy stats (football outsiders NCAA) tells a similar story. It all depends on playing well and eliminating mistakes. The usual. Someone said in an earlier game that the bad news was they ate a bag a charcoal and the good news is that they are now passing diamonds. I expect the same on Saturday.
October 23rd, 2021 at 6:47 PM ^
If MSU’s front 7 plays the run as well as Wisconsin did, then this game comes down to their functional passing QB and excellent WRs vs M corners.
I don’t see that going well for Michigan.
October 23rd, 2021 at 9:57 PM ^
I would agree with you if we didn't have Dax Hill.
October 24th, 2021 at 2:10 PM ^
I agree that the MSU passing offense vs our pass defense is the key matchup in this game. Everything else feels like a coin flip.
But my irrational conclusion is Harbaugh has never lost in East Lansing, and he won't start now.
Michigan 27-20, and it will be tense as shit.
October 23rd, 2021 at 7:14 PM ^
I don't like this game. It will be an ugly slug fest of running & punting. I just hope we've got more to our game plan than just running on first and second down and throwing deep. We need to be a little less predictable. We won't be able to run on their defense without also throwing with some level of efficiency beyond just the dink and dunk throws and a few deep throws.
October 23rd, 2021 at 8:22 PM ^
For all the "rivalry" talk, in most years the better team wins this game. Look at the end-of-year records for the past thirty years.
October 23rd, 2021 at 8:43 PM ^
Excellent breakdown. Really. That said, passion, poise and execution going to matter the most in this rivalry that MSU always seems to be extremely ready for. Season stats don't mean much in this one. Beat Sparty, and Go Blue !
October 23rd, 2021 at 9:46 PM ^
Very good analysis of the numbers. The numbers mean nothing in this game though.
October 23rd, 2021 at 10:50 PM ^
This game you always have to throw out what MSU has been against their other opponents. They seem to always play up to the occasion.
I'm hoping Michigan was flat in the first half today because they were working on State stuff during the bye.
October 24th, 2021 at 11:36 AM ^
In seasons where MSU has won 8 or more games they are 19-3 against Michigan.
October 24th, 2021 at 2:16 PM ^
Interesting stats, plus MSU is at home. As long as our guys stay focused all week, which certainly will, they won't come out as flat as they were against NW yesterday.
Sparty played flat nearly the whole game against Indiana. It could be that they were thinking ahead to the Michigan game. Our guys looked flat or rusty in the 1st quarter of the NW game but had much more focus after the 10-7 lead at halftime.
It is obvious that the team with the fewest mistakes will win the game but also if Michigan can maintain a balanced attack on offense and play as they have on special teams then advantage Michigan.
I gave Michigan a slight edge, not much margin for error on this one.
October 25th, 2021 at 2:06 PM ^
What is Michigan's record against MSU in seasons in which Michigan has won 9 or more games?
October 26th, 2021 at 9:17 AM ^
Source of that stat? Sounds like fake news, though it could be true given the '40's - '60's
Quick question: why do you create an account an opposing teams' fan forum? I genuinely care about all people and I just hope you have happy things going on in your life, and don't need to wallow in conflict
Followup: why do you upvote your own comments? do you really care about your MGoPoints?
October 24th, 2021 at 1:22 PM ^
Blake Corum rushes for 271 yards in a 28-7 Michigan victory.
October 24th, 2021 at 2:27 PM ^
MSU is hard to gauge. I don’t think they are a top 10 program and wont be top 15 by end of season. They’ve passed a test of the bottom tier B1G opponents (Northwestern/Neb/Rutgers/Indiana), the non-con gauntlet of WKU, Youngstown St and Miami, who is utter dog$h!t this season. Miami is 3-4, barely escaping AppSt and NC State. their only convincing win against perrenial powerhouse CCSU Blue Devils, i haven’t asked Jeeves who they are yet.
Given that schedule PSU, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan and Ohio State would all be undefeated as well. So would at least 20 other P5 programs and maybe 2-3 G5. For Mel it’s an outstanding accomplishment for year 2 given that he’s turned over the roster with xfers and has yet to get his recruits into the rotation. I hope he is rewarded handsomely by LSU before they lose 3 possibly 4 of last 5.
October 24th, 2021 at 11:39 PM ^
This.
Sparty was run over vs. Nebraska and happened to luck out on special teams. It's who they are.
They get exposed on Saturday. Exposed and beat up.
October 24th, 2021 at 11:50 PM ^
Can't help but think I've heard this before.
October 25th, 2021 at 11:50 PM ^
Yeah, before they were exposed and beat up in 2018? or in 2019?
October 25th, 2021 at 1:00 AM ^
To be fair, you could say the exact same thing about Michigan. Swap out Washington for Miami and it's a wash because they both have 3-4 records. We have 3 common opponents that we have both played in the BIG, so where is the substantial difference. The only one that I see is in the two OOC games against WMU and NIU. WMU is 5-3 and NIU is 6-2. That would indicate a better SoS for us but I believe it is nullified by playing in EL and by our history of not playing State very well when they are a top 10 team. I hope that I am wrong.
October 24th, 2021 at 6:14 PM ^
This is good work. Thanks for putting this together.
October 25th, 2021 at 1:58 AM ^
My big takeaway from this was how the hell did Sparty let Northwestern get 400 yards? The fact that their defense is allowing over 400 yards a game, including to some bad offenses, wouldn't seem to bode too well for them. It seems like we'll score some points on them; the question for me is how well can our defense keep their offense in check.
October 25th, 2021 at 10:07 AM ^
UM and MSU are very similar in points per play.
UM gives up 4.82 yards per play defensively MSU 4.87
UM gains 6.30 ypp MSU gains 6.96
ypg is even tighter MSU 451.7 vs 442.9 (UM has faced tougher competition0
The big difference is number of plays and Time of possession. Michigan is 12th in TOP MSU 115.
In the last 3 games Michigan has averaged 81 offensive plays a game MSU 66.
That difference in # of plays and TOP has resulted in MSU giving up 850 more total yards 2093 to MSU's 2845 And MSU has given up more than 100 yards/game UM 299 to MSU 407
November 2nd, 2021 at 11:40 AM ^
Now 3-20 against MSU when State finishes the season with 8 or more wins.
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