UM Basketball Recruiting Database

Submitted by AC1997 on April 13th, 2020 at 6:20 PM

Lately we have all been craving any sports discussion and our basketball program has been able to fill at least some of that void with all of the recent roster news.  I've participated in a few lively debates with friends on email, on the MGoBlog Forum, and over at UMHoops regarding such topics as recruiting rankings, player rotation for next year, and the state of turnover in college basketball rosters.  These topics combined with a little quarantine boredom prompted me to crave more data and information.  

I reached out to Seth to inquire whether he had built a player database for basketball to compliment his amazing version for football.  He informed me that he hadn't but encouraged me to work on one.  I dug up an old laptop that had some info from the 1990's on it and started working on a database.  Below is a link to a public Google Sheet file with recruiting data for every Michigan recruit dating back until the Fab Five.  It doesn't rival Seth's football version for content, but it has what I've been able to build so far.  

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11HE1zaCHqtsxQSSLjtwcjHVVYPEE5-sYC1foFO1mblE/edit?usp=sharing

Here are some things to know about what is and isn't in there:

  • I am confident I have every recruit we've had - even some that never made it to campus.  
  • I am also confident I tracked down the outcome of each recruit's Michigan tenure and whether it ended in graduation, transfer, NBA, etc.  The only one I'm not sure of is a 1996 recruit named Brandun Hughes.  He only has one year of stats, but I don't know why he left.
  • I assigned every player a "position" from 1 thru 5, with 0.5 indicating that they frequently played both positions.  (i.e. Livers is listed as 3.5 and Brooks is listed as 1.5)
  • I have all of the recruiting information I can access from ESPN, 247, and Rivals.  I also have some older anecdotal data from an old UMHoops post. 
  • I do *NOT* have access to any real recruiting information from before about 2002.  If anyone has access to old sites, databases, magazines, etc. and would like to share them we can build this more like Seth's football database.  

My hope is that we can build this into something useful that we can leverage for future posts, discussions, and debates.  For example, this database shows is that roster turnover is not a new thing.  Since the Fab Five just 36% of recruits stay four years at Michigan and that's nearly equaled by players who transfer (25%).  Guys leaving for the NBA has ebbed over the years but still represents 17% of all players. 

I was also able to compare some old recruits to the talented incoming class to create some comparable expectations.  There are some on the board projecting Hunter Dickinson into a significant role next year because of his star ratings and need.  While I am excited for his future, the track record of centers playing even 20mpg as true freshmen is almost non-existent.  The minutes played does somewhat correlate to star ratings, however.  Some barely play at all (Teske, Horford, Morgan), many played a part-time role due to talent and/or need (Wagner, Doyle, Donnal) and even the best ones that are closest to his recruiting ratings top out at barely 20mpg (McGary, Traylor, Baston).  You have to go all the way back to Juwan himself to find a center that played starter's minutes as a freshman. 

I appreciate any and all feedback on this.  I'm happy to make enhancements or adjustments if people find value in it.  I haven't put a lot of analytics or pivot tables to this yet given that so much of the older data isn't filled in yet.  

 

Comments

AC1997

April 13th, 2020 at 7:38 PM ^

Years ago I used to try and keep track of the guys playing in other countries and post about them on the board.  I haven't tried tracking that info down in a while but it is probably easier to find now.  There were some guys who had solid pro careers in random countries like Josh Asselin, Graham Brown, etc.  

SanDiegoBlue

April 14th, 2020 at 10:44 AM ^

Also it's Travis ConlAn and Jerod Ward

Maybe for those who graduate and go to the NBA add that in, in fact easier to have a column NBA

Walton & Levert & Duncan

 

Also can add transfers who went to the NBA

You may want to note that Olivier St. Jean is now

Tariq Abdul-Wahad who had an 8 year NBA career

Makhtar (spelling & NBA)

Maceo (NBA)

Ekpe (NBA)

 

 

AC1997

April 14th, 2020 at 4:32 PM ^

Thanks for the feedback on spelling - that is not a skill I am proud of and should have double checked.

 

Let me clarify the column with "NBA" in it.  This is not meant to indicate what happened AFTER they left Michigan.  Lots of guys on this list ended up playing in the NBA.  That column is meant to capture why they LEFT Michigan.  For example, Derrick Walton played in the NBA....but he left Michigan because he graduated.  Iggy played in the NBA (sort of) but he left Michigan because he declared early for the draft.  

AC1997

April 14th, 2020 at 4:43 PM ^

So there are a couple of next steps that I would love to add, but I'd likely need help from the smart people on this blog to do so.  Here are some of the things I considered:

  1. Add a link for each player that takes you to their Michigan or basketball-reference page
  2. Add a column for "Michigan career" or "college career" that somehow captures what they did while in school.  Something that allows us to relate years, recruiting, position, etc. to how they turned out.
  3. Add a column for "pro career" that somehow captures what happened to them after they left - again to draw conclusions/trends

 

BarryBadrinath

April 14th, 2020 at 8:10 PM ^

This is awesome! 

My only comment is would be of any use to delineate between those that graduate transfer (get degree at Michigan and then transfer) vs. those that transfer prior to graduating? 

Spike specifically comes to mind, but I'm sure there are others that graduated at Michigan and then transferred. 

AC1997

April 15th, 2020 at 9:12 AM ^

This is good feedback and something I started thinking about as I got into it.  I would love to make that change....but I may need some help from the board on this.  The data is harder to track down as to their eligibility when they transferred.  Spike and Max Bielfeldt were grad transfers, but that's no obvious from the websites I was using.  

Another minor flaw in my data is in the rare case when someone arrived as a sit-out transfer like Duncan and Charles.  What class do I put them in?  Do their rankings still count?  

spiff

April 19th, 2020 at 12:31 AM ^

Good God, look at Ellerbe's recruiting. And his record. Man, those were my Maize Rage years. When the Maize Rage was like one section behind the bench and we pretty much just yelled at Ellerbe the whole time.