As multiple commenters have noted, based on 247 composite rankings, next years freshman class includes 4 of the top 15 players since 2003 (as far back as 247 reports that information).

Below I have summarized an extrapolation of what we can expect if these freshman perform at a similar level (e.g. if 4 out of 11 players (36%) received at least all big ten honorable mention their freshman year, it is not unreasonable (although simplistic) to extrapolate that 1 out of 4 freshman could be expected to achieve similar levels of performance.   Underlying data for each player is at the end if the post.   All performance metrics are from freshman year.

Summary of Performance of Previous Top Recruits

2 players had what would be considered phenomenal years regardless of class in Hunter Dickinson and Ignas Brazdekis.    Both were big ten freshman of the year and received additional recognition at the big ten and national levels.   Both their teams enjoyed success making at least the sweet 16.

Manny Harris and Glenn Robinson were just a notch below receiving big ten honors as well as all freshman honors.

Two other players, Dion Harris and Cortney Sims received all big ten freshman honors.   

Mitch McGary did not receive any season accolades, but was playing at an elite level by tournament time, receiving all tournament team honors in being a key factor in the team making the championship game.

While he did not receive big ten level awards, Derrick Walton was the starting point guard on a team that one the big ten and made it to the elite 8.

Zak Irvin did not start, but was a  key reserve on a team that won the big ten and made it to the elite 8.   He only played 15.4 minutes a game, but averaged 6.7 points per game.

Two players had pretty small impacts.  Kameron Chatman and Deshawn Sims averaged

What does that mean for the freshman class?

4 out of 11 players on the list got recognition at the big ten level or higher. (e.g. honorable mention all big ten or higher).   It is not unreasonable to expect that at least one out of the four freshman ranked in the top 51, will play at a level good enough to get recognition at the big ten level.   In terms of upper end on offense, 5 of 11 players on the list averaged double digit points.  Manny Harris led with 16.1 points, Brazdeikis and Dickinson averaged 14.8 and 14.1 points respectively and Robinson and Harris averaged 11.0 and 10.1 points respectively.   It would certainly not be surprising to have at least one freshman with double digit points.

It is also not unrealistic to expect an additional player to get big ten all freshman recognition.  Six of the eleven players ranked in the top 50 achieved this level of recognition.

It is also not unrealistic to expect a third freshman to be a key starter or at least a key reserve.   Nine of the eleven players in the top 50 reached this level.

The data

Caleb Houston

• 2021
• Ranked 6 overall
• #3 power forward
• 6’8” 205

Glenn Robinson

• 2012
• Ranked 17 overall
• #4 shooting forward
• 6’6” 185
• Freshman all big ten
• Honorable mention all big ten
• Started all 39 games, averaged 33.6 minutes a game
• NCAA runner up, team finished 31-8
• 4th on team at 11.0 points per game.
• 23 of 71 from 3 point (32.4%)
• 167 of 292 overall (57.2%)
• 5.4 rebounds per game

Moussa Diabate

• Ranked 18 overall
• #6 power forward
• 6’10” 215

Dion Harris

• 2003
• Ranked number 25 overall
• #4 shooting guard
• 6’4” 200
• Averaged 28.1 minutes per game, played in all 34 games and started 11
• Big Ten all freshman team
• Averaged 10.1 points per game
• 58 of 170 from 3 point (34.1%)
• 112 of 285 overall (39.3%)
• NIT champion, team finished 23-11

Kameron Chatman

• 2014
• Ranked 27 overall
• #7 shooting forward
• 6’6” 197
• Started 15 of 32 games averaging 15.2 minutes per game
• Averaged 3.6 points per game
• 10 of 38 from three point (26.3%) and 42 of of 132 (31.8%) overall.

Mitch McGary

• 2012
• Ranked 28 overall
• #8 power forward
• 6’10” 255
• Averaged 19.7 minutes a game, starting 8 of 39 games.
• 5 double, doubles, 3 in NCAA tournament and 4 in last 8 games of season
• 7.5 points and 6.3 rebounds per game.
• 134 of 224 (59.8%) from the field.
• NCAA runner up, team finished 31-8

Zak Irvin

• 2013
• Ranked 28 overall
• #7 shooting guard
• 6’5” 170
• Played in 37 games, averaging 15.4 minutes per game
• Averaged 6.7 points per game
• 62 of 146 (42.5%) from 3 and  85 of 196 (43.4%) overall
• Won big ten, NCAA elite 8

DeShawn Sims

• 2006
• Rated #30 overall
• #7 power forward
• 6’7” 222
• Started 2 of 33 games.  Averaged 9.4 minutes a game
• Averaged 3.4 points per game
• 40 of 120 from the floor (33.3%)

Manny Harris

• 2007
• Rated 37 overall
• #8 shooting guard
• 6’4” 170
• 16.1 points per game
• 42 of 132 from 3 point (31.8%)
• 159 of 417 from the floor (38.1%)
• All big ten second team
• Freshman all big ten
• Started 32 of 32 games, averaging 33.0 minutes per game

Courtney Sims

• 2003
• Rated 38 overall
• # 7 center
• 6’10” 222
• Started 34 games averaging 19.6 minutes a game
• Averaged 6.9 points and 4.1 rebounds per game
• 94 of 169 from the floor (55.6%)
• Big ten all freshman team
• NIT champion, team finished 23-11

Ignas Brazdeikis

• 2018
• Ranked 40 overall
• 6’8” 220
• 9th ranked shooting forward
• Started all 37 games averaging 29.7 minutes per game
• Big ten freshman of the year
• All big ten second team
• Honorable mention all American
• Averaged 14.8 points and 5.4 rebounds per game
• 56 of 143 (39.2%) from three point and 188 of 407 (46.2%).
• Team made sweet sixteen finishing 30 and 7.

Kobe Bufkin

• Rated 41 overall
• #4 combo guard
• 6’4” 175

Hunter Dickinson

• Ranked #43 overall
• #10 center
• 7’2” 255
• Second team all American
• Big ten freshman of the year
• Started 23 of 28 games averaging 26.0 minutes per game
• Averaged 14.1 points and 7.4 rebounds per game
• 156 of 261 (59.8%) from the floor.
• Won big ten, made it to elite 8

Derrick Walton

• 2013
• Ranked 45 overall
• #10 point guard
• 6’0” 170
• Started 36 of 37 games averaging 26.7 minutes per game
• Averaged 7.9 points and 2.9 assists per game
• 43 of 105 (41%) from 3 point and 91 of 212 (42.9%) overall.
• Won big ten, NCAA elite 8.

Frankie Collins

• Ranked 51 overall
• #9 point guard
• 6’1” 180