Comparing injuries across the Big Ten

Submitted by m1jjb00 on

Alum 65 asked what did we do to the injury gods.  I was thinking the same thing as it seemed like a lot, but then I asked myself how it compares to other schools.  Some Internet searches convinced me that reporting was too inconsistent across schools to have a good, comparable measure.  Plus, it was really time consuming.

The table below presents an imperfect measure of starts lost.  Michigan appears second to Maryland in terms of injuries in the Big 10.

“Starts” lost*

 

Games

Played

Starts lost

as %

of gm.

Maryland

6

21

3.5

Michigan

7

22

3.1

Purdue

7

20

2.9

Minnesota

6

17

2.8

Rutgers

6

15

2.5

Wisconsin

6

12

2.0

Nebraska

6

12

2.0

Illinois

7

11

1.6

Iowa

6

8

1.3

Northwestern

6

7

1.2

Indiana

6

6

1.0

MichiganState

6

5

0.8

PennState

6

4

0.7

OhioState

5

2

0.4

* excludes second-string quarterbacks

For each player on the team that records at least one start in the NCAA database, the table sums up the number of games played according to the same database less the number of games the team played.  So, for instance, Michigan has played seven games.  Jehu Chesson started at least one game (four actually, which doesn’t matter) and has played in six.  So, he contributes 1 to Michigan’s total.  Kyle Kalis started only three games, but because he has played all seven he doesn’t contribute to the measure.  The theory is that if a player has started at least one game, he probably plays in all the games even if he doesn’t start unless he is injured or suspended.  You can’t just take everyone on the roster and calculate how many games weren’t played because you’ll end up just with an estimate of how coach’s play their benches and how many blowouts there were.

 

The one adjustment I made to the count was that I treated quarterbacks differently.  If a starter is replaced, he may not be hurt but not play in the game.  Moreover, if you end up starting a second-string QB in one game, you’ll end up treating him as hurt in all the other games that he may not have played.  Shane Morris is such an example, as he started against Minnesota, but did not play against Notre Dame when he wasn’t hurt.  So, he otherwise would have been counted as injured for Notre Dame had I not just excluded second-string quarterbacks.  I did go back and add in any games not played by obvious 1st string quarterbacks.  Rudock, Leidner, and Lunt missed games due to injury, while it doesn’t appear that Etling, who missed two games, was hurt.  (The theory is that reporting on starting quarterbacks is good enough across teams.)  I didn’t add back in an injury for Morris for the Penn State game, which he probably should be counted, just like I didn’t do any comparable searches for other second-string quarterbacks who may be injured.

It’s useful to acknowledge all of the other imperfections in this measure.

  • It includes suspensions, so Glasgow adds one to Michigan.
  • It doesn’t include obvious starters lost for the entire year before the season started, such as Braxton Miller.  Note that Noah Spence also doesn’t show up, as although he played in one game, he didn’t start in that game.
  • It doesn’t include injuries to important people on special teams or important backups that in a perfect world would be counted. 
  • No adjustments are made for how good the player was that was lost.  Nor does it weigh injuries if for instance they occur in the same area, which may compound the damage.
  • No allowances are made for guys who play in some games but are obviously not 100% (Jake Butt?).
  • Teams that have instability in their starting lineups will have a bigger pool to have a chance to show up as injured. 

 

The advantage is that it doesn’t depend on a detailed knowledge of the teams, which might then be biased as I at least know more about some teams more than others.

 

 

 

 

Comments

MayOhioEatTurds

October 13th, 2014 at 1:06 PM ^

I've been wondering this for a while, but was too lazy to do all the legwork. 

Thanks for tabulating all of this.  It confirms the gut feeling:  Michigan has had an unfortunate number of injuries--especially when compared to peer institutions. 

BornSinner

October 13th, 2014 at 2:25 PM ^

Yep this and the coaching staff's "but footbaawww? injuries what injuries manbawwww toughnesss" combative mantra with the media is just another indictment. sigh.. 

alum96

October 13th, 2014 at 2:25 PM ^

How did I get downgraded to 65??? ;)

Thanks for the work. I follow OSU and MSu most closely of the Big 10 so in comparison to them I feel like we are so snakebit.  This chart shows that as well.  Grrr.

Baxter

October 13th, 2014 at 4:19 PM ^

It makes no sense by to include players like Braxton who have missed every game. He was clearly their starter and a major loss. Just because he was gone a week or two before the season is pointless.


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I dumped the Dope

October 13th, 2014 at 8:48 PM ^

is how hard these guys are being pushed in practice.

Meaning are the players truly all injured in the game or do some of these happen getting drilled in practice?

Several of the ACL tears (Butt, Ryan, Bellomy) happened in practice.

I've often wondered where the coaches put the needle in terms of this, on one extreme the players can barely make it to the game, on the other extreme they rarely hit each other in practice, its all "touch football".  Realizing neither extreme is likely but where to set the bounds, or if this has any factor....

One would think if injuries are completely random it would strike another team differently in another year.

YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

October 13th, 2014 at 9:00 PM ^

"how many". For UM it's been a double hit. Who are the "best" players on Michigan from a likelihood to play in the NFL? A guess in the order: Funchess, Peppers, Ryan, F Clark, Henry, Gardner WR, Wilson, Cole, R Taylor, Butt. So 5 of 10 have been on the field every game and Gardner & Butt have been limited. Starts missed: Raymon - 2 Wilson -2 Peppers - 5 Chesson -1 Henry - 1 Glasgow -1 Funchess - 1 Morgan - 5 D Hill - 2 Magnuson -1 Green -1

Waves

October 13th, 2014 at 9:20 PM ^

I wonder how many injuries are due to players being out of position and thus putting themselves needlessly in harm's way. Plays that are slow to develop, or errant passes down the middle also, may tend to leave receivers vulnerable and prone to excessively hard hits.

Maybe I'm wrong. I'm not saying it's a fact, just asking the question. Maybe Space Coyote or one of the other gurus can answer this.

WinWithPeople

October 14th, 2014 at 10:30 AM ^

He was suspended for the first three games, and was due to play in game four (against KSU), but it was announced the day before that game that he would be suspended on an indef basis.

msg126

October 14th, 2014 at 10:53 AM ^

Sorry all, long time blog viewer, 1st time contributor and more or less a tech idiot. Not sure how to share this so I figured I'd just throw it out there and anyone interested can place it on a different thread. This just came across my radar, as a resident of Northern NJ. Pepper's quotes seem to have created quite a stir up here: http://www.northjersey.com/news/don-bosco-coach-s-recruiting-claims-dra… Peppers put himself right into this story.