You know what you don’t want to do if you are sitting on the NCAA Bubble? You certainly don’t want to lose to a 20-loss team that’s lost six straight games by more than double digits. And, you definitely don’t want to barf away a double digit lead in the closing minutes and lose to a team with twice as many league losses as wins. Yet, that’s exactly what Cincinnati and Georgetown did in stunning losses last night that sliced a near lethal dagger through the heart of their at-large hopes and helped clear up a lot of elbow room on the NCAA Bubble. The Bearcats could not contain the Bulls Dominque Jones, who dropped 30 points on CU for the sophomore’s 22nd career game with 20 or more points. Georgetown, meanwhile, inexplicably frittered a way a big lead en route to losing in overtime to St. John’s. The Johnnies missed 14 straight shots in the second half, yet still were able to come back and spring the upset. Did they find a way to sneak Chris Mullen and Mark Jackson into the game somehow? I don’t know. I do know the loss drops the Hoyas into 12th place in the Big East. I don’t care how tough the Big East is perceived to be, their 12th place team wont sniff the final field of 65. Those outcomes, as well as Kansas State’s loss to Oklahoma State, put serious dents in the resumes of the three teams directly behind Michigan in the current Bracket Matrix in the quest to break into the field. Throw in Matrix 12-seed Maryland’s home loss last night to Wake Forest and it was a pretty solid night on the out-of-town scoreboard for the Maize and Blue. If only Iowa had pulled through to kick a leg out from underneath Ohio State’s resume, the night would have been perfect. First Upset in the Books The out-of-town scoreboard also revealed the first official upset of March Madness when 7-seed Illinois-Chicago went on the road to beat 6-seed Youngstown State in the opening round of the Horizon League Tournament. I have a feeling we’ll see several more upsets between now and the end of the month that will resonate louder than that one. In addition to YSU, 11 other teams saw their dream die last after being eliminated last night in various league tournaments. See you later, High Point, Tennessee State and Coastal Carolina. I feel like we barely knew you. Better luck next year. Sorry, Detroit, your dream to play the Final Four in your city ended last night at the hands of Cleveland State. We’re down to less than 320 remaining to be the last one standing in four weeks at Ford Field. That number will shrink further tonight with elimination games in the Patriot and Sun Belt conferences. Fellow Hoops Junkie Jerry has a primer on all that action in part one and part two of his series looking ahead to a big weekend in mid-major hoops. The few league tournament games tonight will impact Michigan or the rest of the bubble. Here’s a sketch of the action tonight that will impact the bubble: As The ACC Turns We’ve tracked five bubble teams from the ACC, but in the final week of the season little has been determined yet regarding their fates. Only one of those teams, Florida State, has separated itself from the pack to get off the bubble and lock in a bid. While the Noles dropped a tough one on the road to Duke last night, they’re on their way to a top-4 finish in the ACC. They also covered the spread (as predicted, WOOT!) and are now 10-4-1 against the number in the ACC this season. Don’t forget that factoid next week when the league field convenes. That leaves Maryland, Miami, Boston College and Virginia Tech still trying to ensure a bid. The Terps lost last night to Wake, dropping them a game below .500 in league play. Through all the ups and downs, Maryland finds itself in the very same position as last year, needing to cobble together at least two more bids to feel safely about getting a bid. Boston College is the most secure of all these teams. They’re a consensus 8-seed in the Bracket Matrix. But, if they don’t win another game the rest of the way, they probably would be left out. After their road game at NC State tonight, they host last place Georgia Tech to close the season Saturday. If BC were to drop those games, they would be .500 in ACC play. They can’t afford a 0-2 week against those lightweights and then go 0-1 in the ACC Tournament and still expect a bid. The Eagles, barring total collapse, are in the field. Is it possible said collapse could begin tonight in Raleigh? I’m not sure, but the Pack have played better since making a lineup change in their first games with the Eagles this year. Miami and Virginia Tech are different stories. Both clubs need at least two, if not three, wins from here on out to sneak back in the field. As of today, both clubs are just ahead of Michigan among the final eight left out in the Bracket Matrix. The Hokies and Canes are in 22 and 20 brackets respectively. The Hokies have a chance at a big scalp this evening when North Carolina invades Blacksburg. These teams have not played each other since last year’s ACC semifinals, an absolute classic won by the Heels on a Hansbourogh buzzer beater. That loss kept the Hokies out of the Field of 65. A win tonight would go a long way towards earning a big this season. The Hokies might seem at a talent disadvantage tonight, but don’t sleep on them. They have a way of turning most games into nail biters. A total of 68 games since Seth Greenberg took over have been decided by five points or less or in Overtime. That’s more than one-third of the games since he took over the Hokie program. On Senior Night, when they’re bidding adieu to one of the more successful classes in program history and the Puerto Rican Assassin, the Hokies could be a very live dog. As for Miami, the Canes were mired deep in the league standings a couple of weeks ago. But, if they take care of business against Georgia Tech tonight and NC State over the weekend, they will have crawled back to even in ACC play. They would be a on a nice winning streak, but since most of those wins will have come at the expense of second division teams, they would still need a grab a win next week in the ACC tournament. It boils down to this in the ACC: Some combination of Miami, Virginia Tech and Maryland will end up as the 7-8-9 seeds in the ACC Tournament. Can either of those teams strengthen their cases between now and then? At this point, it looks like a good bet that none of these three will be any better than 8-8 in league play and none will have more than 20 overall wins when the ACC convenes next week. Two of these teams will square off in an 8-9 game to start the tournament next Thursday afternoon. At worst, it will be an elimination game. At best, it will be a play-in game. As for the third team that gets the 7-seed? I suggest not losing that 7/10 game (likely foe: NC State) that will wrap up the night session of the first round. Southern Turmoil Down south, the focus tonight is on a pair of reeling SEC teams: Kentucky and Florida. Both clubs are rapidly playing themselves out of the tournament equation and need to stop the bleeding before they play each to close the season over the weekend. Both have been hemorrhaging support from the Bracket Matrix in recent updates. Kentucky has the easier chore tonight, traveling to last place Georgia. The Cats are clinging to a 12-seed in the Matrix, and almost half of the bracketologists have left them out of their fields. The Cats have lost two in a row, three of four and six of their last nine games. That’s no way to enter March. The Cats are on the verge of missing the NCAAs for the first time since the Eddie Sutton, Chris Mills, Shaun Kemp-induced probation sunk the program, prohibiting their participation in 1990 and 1991. The folks down in Bluegrass Country are not taking it well. Billy Clyde Gillespie is on the hot seat, mainly because this is not how UK basketball seasons are supposed to look like. Not only are the Wildcats in disarray, but their coach is saying they aren’t a better team than Georgia, tonight’s opponent. That’s last place Georgia for those not up on the SEC standings. For this Hooiser alum, no tears are shed when there is panic in Lexington. For the time being, it even makes me forget our own problems down in Bloomington. That does bring a tear, so let’s move on, shall we? Florida, meanwhile, looks to be in slightly better shape with an 11-seed and placement in approximately two-thirds of the brackets. However, they have a much tougher hill to climb tonight traveling to Starkville to play Mississippi State. Like UK, Florida comes in off back-to-back losses. The Gators have lost four of their last six games and are just 5-6 in their last 11 games, the same record as Michigan during that span. However, by all accounts, Michigan plays in a tougher league than Florida and included in that stretch was a non-conference game on the road against top-ranked Uconn. Gator observers admit it's easier to make a case leaving Florida out of the field, and they might need four wins from here on out to make the field. Here’s the deal with both of these teams: Can either feel secure if they go 2-2 from here on out? We know one will lose this weekend. Can the loser of that game get in with just one SEC Tournament win? I don’t think so. Every road map into the field for these teams becomes even rockier should either lose this evening. Does the winner get a fancy axe? Are we interested at all in the Wisconsin-Minnesota game? Um, yeah. Wisconsin is likely in the field, but like Boston College, probably won’t get in if they don’t win another game. Considering they host woeful Indiana (dammit!!!) over the weekend, a Badger collapse is not likely to happen. Still, in Badger Country, its being billed as one of the league’s marquee games of the season. As for the Gophers, even with a win, they can’t afford to lose to Michigan on Saturday. I’d rather Minnesota come into that game with as sparkly a resume as possible. For the Gophers tonight can be a win-win-uh,win situation against the rival Badgers. Even with a Minnesota win tonight, Michigan can earn the 7-seed in the Big 10 conference with a win on Saturday. Anyway you shake it, Saturday’s game between the Gophers and the Wolverines will determine which team only has to win one Big 10 Tournament game and which team has to advance at least two rounds in order to snag an at large bid. I don’t think tonight’s game will alter that scenario. A New Threat Emerges in the Mountain West Out in the Mountain West Conference, your guess is as good as mine as to what’s going on. I’ve been railing all winter on people including 4 MWC in their fields. We’ve seen some attrition in that line of thought with San Diego State garnering next to no support these days. The Aztecs are only in a grand total of 4 brackets in the Matrix. UNLV, meanwhile, is a 10-seed, but the Rebels are garnering near unanimous support, putting them on stronger footing, on the surface at least, than teams like Florida and Kentucky. Neither of those positions will change tonight as each hosts one of the league’s worst teams with UNLV playing Air Force and SDSU welcoming Colorado State. Conveniently, the Rebels and Aztecs play each this weekend and it’s looking more and more likely they will see each other again next Thursday afternoon in the 4/5 quarterfinal of the MWC Tournaments. Elsewhere in the league, BYU seems secure barring a complete collapse and a three-game losing streak to end the season. They do play a tougher-than-it-looks game tonight on the road at Wyoming, so maybe the first strike in said collapse is coming. But since they host winless-in-the-league Air Force this weekend, don’t get your hopes too high for a Cougar choke job. Utah is a home win from the regular season title and probably won’t be left out of the field either. So, BYU and Utah look; UNLV and SDSU still have some work to do and any bid between them may come down to back-to-back games each other beginning Saturday night in Vegas. So, this league is easy to figure out, right? Not when New Mexico is added to the discussion. Say what you will about Steve Alford (awesome player, so-so coach) he has the Lobos on fire. They notched a big win over Utah last night and are one win away from sharing the league crown with the Utes. However, as of today, the Lobos are in exactly one bracket along the comprehensive Matrix. I wonder how this will change between now and next Monday? Maybe the MWC will net four bids after all. I still think the number is three. It may be the most intriguing league tournament all of next weekend. My guess? If seeds hold, the two semifinals winners will get a bid as well the next best team. I still don’t see four teams, but if it happens, rest assured a team from one of the power leagues will be left out in the cold. Predictions For amusement purposes only, I offer the following predictions for tonight. Hey, I am 2-2-1 making calls in March Diaries, but we're only beginning. Minnesota -2 over Wisconsin. No team that loses at Iowa will win at the Barn. Well, until Saturday, that is. Mississippi State beats Florida, but I'll take the +1 anyway. Va Tech +10 over UNC......remember a few years back when Duke's Sean Dockery beat the Hokies on a half court shot? They stewed for an entire year waiting for revenge. Expect the same kind of effort tonight out of Va Tech, who are still fuming over last year's clash in the ACC semifinals. They might not win, but they'll keep this withing single digits.