Baseball: Conference Midpoint Recap
Side Note: Derek Dennis's status is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury.
With half of the Big Ten regular season complete, it's time to take a look at the conference to see where Michigan is and what it will take to get a good seed in the Big Ten Tournament. In this post, we'll walk through the series we've already completed and then look at the opponents we still have on the schedule.
So, for all you late comers to the baseball season, here's what you need to know.
Where We've Been
@Indiana | |||
---|---|---|---|
Series Record | 2-1 | ||
Scores | 16-10 | 6-4 | 6-26 |
Game One | Wild and crazy high scoring affair as it goes back and forth after Michigan was all but dead early. Dufek wins it in the 10th with a RBI double. Two bench clearings. Crazy. | ||
Game Two | Brosnahan is sporadic but his emotion carries him through for the win in a well pitched game by both teams. Michigan's early lead is enough to get by. | ||
Game Three | Katzman makes the start and can't get through the first. Yours truly quits the game early as Michigan was down 17. | ||
Outlook Then | For as exciting and tense as the first two games of the series |
While not much has changed in terms of outlook, Indiana hasn't turned out just as good as I expected either. They've been quite inconsistent, with their top hitters going ice cold the weak after they torched us. That freeze of course happened against Ohio State, giving the Buckeyes a pretty easy 2-1 series victory. They did sweep Iowa, though, something Michigan couldn't do.
Purdue | |||
---|---|---|---|
Series Record | 2-1 | ||
Scores | 5-8 | 6-4 | 9-4 |
Game One | Alan Oaks continued to struggle and Michigan could do nothing with Purdue's Matt Bischoff in the loss. | ||
Game Two | Big inning early and a solid Brosnahan start allows Michigan to coast to a victory with Burgoon locking down the 8-9th. | ||
Game Three | Brandon Sinnery gets his first start and makes good. A 7-run 4th inning caps off Ryan LaMarre's POTW winning series. | ||
Outlook Then | Michigan is going to continue to make decent to good pitchers |
The loss to Bischoff is still nothing to worry about. It really would have helped for Michigan to get a sweep. Ohio State isn't on their schedule, but I'm not sure if that helps or hurts us. Purdue may be able to steal a game from the Buckeyes, or they may get blown out in all three.
@Illinois | |||
---|---|---|---|
Series Record | 2-1 | ||
Scores | 17-1 | 2-6 | 11-4 |
Game One | Alan Oaks is back! 8 innings of great pitching and the offense explodes for 17 runs? We're rolling. | ||
Game Two | The bats fall asleep and Brosnahan has his shaky start that should be good enough for a win. Bad defense doesn't help. | ||
Game Three | After 3 ugly innings by both teams, Tyler Burgoon steps in and shuts down the Illini for Pitcher OTW honors. Offense explodes late, sparked by POTW Patrick Biondi. | ||
Outlook Then | 2-1 series win over a BTT contender will work. We really had |
Things haven't changed much here in a week. Illinois lost 2 of 3 at Michigan State, which means the Spartans are just keeping pace with us.
Iowa | |||
---|---|---|---|
Series Record | 1-2 | ||
Scores | 2-5 | 3-5 | 7-5 |
Game One | Jarred Hippen is really good. He overshadowed anything Michigan related in this game. | ||
Game Two | Due to rain in the forecast, it was a double header, & Hippen momentum carried right through game 2. Michigan grabbed an early lead then blew a big inning. Brosnahan's luck runs dry. | ||
Game Three | Michigan jumps ahead and, for the most part, stays ahead. Offense finally shows up late in the game. | ||
Outlook Then | 1-2 isn't going to cut it. Losing one to Iowa in the Hippen |
That happened. Nothing has happened in our season and it still stings. I can't wait for this weekend to come so I can get it out of my head. Plus, the Buckeyes did us a favor losing a home series to Penn State just so we could keep pace.
After the jump, we look at the present and then haphazardly predict the future.
Where We Are Now
Big Ten | Total | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
# | Team | W-L | % | W-L | % |
1. | Michigan State | 7-5 | .583 | 26-11 | .703 |
Michigan | 7-5 | .583 | 25-14 | .641 | |
Ohio State | 7-5 | .583 | 22-13 | .629 | |
Northwestern | 7-5 | .583 | 15-23 | .395 | |
5. | Purdue | 6-6 | .500 | 23-16 | .590 |
Indiana | 6-6 | .500 | 20-18 | .526 | |
Minnesota | 6-6 | .500 | 16-24 | .400 | |
8. | Illinois | 5-7 | .417 | 18-18 | .500 |
Iowa | 5-7 | .417 | 16-21 | .421 | |
10. | Penn State | 4-8 | .333 | 17-22 | .436 |
The Big Ten is a cluster. No team has run away with anything, and even the teams at the top haven't been able to secure a sweep. With so many teams at the top right now, it's not even worth going into too many tie breakers. The only ones I'll note for now are OSU>MSU and OSU>NU. With 8 teams within 2 games and all ten teams within 3 games, I'll leave it up to you to check out the head-to-head results.
Where We're Headed
Ohio State (7-5): This series could be epic. Ohio State's pitching after Alex Wimmers has hit a new low, gaining negative articles from the newspaper (GASP! NEGATIVE OSU ARTICLES! THAT NEVER HAPPENS!) and a scathing review of how Bob Todd runs his pitching into the ground from the BuckeyeNine. The Buckeye offense isn't anything to scoff at, but the team just doesn't have it's head on straight at the moment, as evidenced by the home series loss to Penn State. Don't expect that to be the problem next week. They'll come to Ann Arbor focused, and Alex Wimmers will look to continue where he left off last year, throwing a no hitter against Michigan on the BTN. If we can get past him, we have a decent chance on Saturday and Sunday.
@Minnesota (6-6): Like much of the middle of the Big Ten, no one can really make heads or tails of the Gophers. They have a lot of talent on their team both at the plate and on the mound, but they just find new and interesting ways to both win and lose. They'll win one game of a series 9-1, then lose the next two 14-2 and 2-1. The next week, scramble those scores around. No consistency. One day, the best team in the Big Ten, the next the worst.
@Northwestern (7-5): The Wildcats are anchored by some quality starting pitching and has found a bit more offense this year than years past. The consensus is they aren't very good, but every time there's been a consensus, they break our mold and take two of three from Minnesota or Purdue, two other teams that no one can really peg as good or bad. I guess that was to be expected from a team that was labeled a dark horse contender in the pre-season.
Penn State (4-8): The Nittany Lions have a pretty solid offense, but their pitching depth is probably one of the weakest in the Big Ten. Their starters have struggled most of the season, but they managed to hold just solid enough this last weekend to hold off Ohio State for a series win. Much will change before we see them to close out the regular season, but they probably won't be making too much noise in the meantime.
Projections
Last year, I took a look at our competition for the final Big Ten Tournament spot. This year, it's not so easy to figure out what Michigan is aiming for, much less who to limit as our direct competition. Almost every team is still in contention for 1st place at this point. I'll caveat this with a note from last year's similar post:
Baseball is a funny sport sometimes, and weird things can happen. Teams can get hot or cold with the flip of a switch. So take these as you may, this is just my guess as of today.
With that in mind, here's what I see the final standings looking like:
Big Ten | |||
---|---|---|---|
# | Team | W-L | % |
1. | Michigan | 16-8 | .667 |
2. | Ohio State | 15-9 | .625 |
3. | Purdue | 13-11 | .542 |
4. | Indiana | 13-11 | .542 |
5. | Michigan State | 13-11 | .542 |
6. | Northwestern | 12-12 | .500 |
7. | Minnesota | 10-14 | .417 |
8. | Iowa | 10-14 | .417 |
9. | Illinois | 10-14 | .417 |
10. | Penn State | 8-16 | .333 |
This assumes no rain outs, something I'm not sure has ever happened in a Big Ten regular season. It also assumes tie breakers from head to head matchups, some of which that haven't happened yet. First thing I think to myself after making these projections: man, lay off the Kool-aid. The more I look at it, the more I want to have us tied with Ohio State at 15-9, but dammit, I'm not giving them the pleasure this week. And as a side note, picking winners in any series featuring any team from Purdue to Illinois was nearly impossible.
In this scenario, Michigan would face the lowest seeded winner of Purdue vs Northwestern and Indiana vs Michigan State. Just looking at the teams making the BTT in my projection, dear god we need the bye. First round pitching match ups are going to be insane.
With all of that in mind, my predictions have been less than stellar this season, unlike last year at VarsityBlue where I was hitting about 85%. This year is quite a bit closer to the Mendoza Line (.200).
That leaves us with just one more note:
Beat Ohio State
April 26th, 2010 at 12:29 PM ^
April 26th, 2010 at 11:25 AM ^
April 26th, 2010 at 11:45 AM ^
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