Yup, Still Careening Downhill Without Brakes
2/5/2016 – Michigan 2, MSU 3(OT) – 16-4-4, 7-2-2 Big Ten
2/6/2016 – Michigan 4, MSU 1 – 17-4-4, 8-2-2 Big Ten
Hey. I don't really have a column this week that's not the thing I keep saying about this rickety deathwagon of a team. This is that take again. I'm sorry, but both teams crested 40 shots in Friday night's game. There's only one take to have.
Let's drill down from the weekend series to a smaller bit of it wherein the crux of our hope and frustration with this bonkers hockey team is made clear: Michigan came out on Saturday and blew MSU's doors off. They only got one goal but outshot the opposition 20-3. It's hockey, it happens, this is why one-game neutral site single elimination is dumb, etc.
The next period was spent in a rearguard action against one of the worst teams in the country; MSU got off something like 13 of the first 14 shots and finished the period 17-8 to the good. That fairly reflected the play on the ice.
The scoring not so much. Michigan extended its lead when the rampant top line scored a goal worthy of the eventual all-Michigan Hobey finalist trio, because that's how they do. Then Michigan scored a couple more times and like fine okay let's just ignore the bit when they just about fell off the surfboard.
It's tougher to do that when the previous night was an actual loss against the aforementioned very bad team, and not even one where luck had much to do with it. MSU played Michigan dead even for much of the weekend. This is our concern, dude. Michigan's performance did not feel any more like a "throw out the records" rivalry performance any more than Michigan ending up down multiple goals in back-to-back games against Wisconsin did. It's just who they are.
After three years out of the tourney I'll take it, and because it's a weird year in college hockey (Quinnipiac is your #1 overall seed if the season ended today) and the playoff format remains a one-game free-for-all we might as well get back in with a team straight out of the 1980s. It's hard to see anyone stopping Michigan; it's equally hard to see them stopping anyone. At least there will be fireworks along the way.
Pairwise check
This weekend amply demonstrated my fears going into the Big Ten schedule: Michigan slid two spots after the Friday loss and went nowhere despite geting the road bump after the Saturday win. MSU is RPI quicksand that only allows you to go down. Michigan is mercifully done with them, at least.
Anyway: Michigan is sixth. They are secure barring a complete collapse (ie, < .500) down the stretch. The remaining schedule is reasonable. There are four games against the league's top half and four against the bottom half with an odd one-off against Ferris thrown in the mix.
It's all but impossible to predict the way things shake out this far away from the end of the season but if Michigan drops 2-3 games they probably stay a 2. The one seed doesn't matter much since Michigan is far away from grabbing #1 or #2* and the (somewhat) easier road through an Atlantic Hockey or weak autobid opponent. Meanwhile as per usual the committee barely has a Midwest regional; it's in Cincinnati this year.
*[The gap between Michigan and Quinnipiac is about as big as the gap between Michigan and the bubble.]
Bullets
As per usual I can't tell you why Michigan is so bad on defense. The lineup shuffling induced by Cooper Marody coming down with mono didn't help, as it stuck Selman out there as a center when he'd played wing for most of the year. But that's a minor thing that does not explain why Michigan likes only one thing as much as scoring, and that's leaving guys wide open in the slot.
Is what it is ever since Mel left.
The second line. The second line is Warren-Marody-Calderone, at least when Marody is healthy. That's why Dancs went to the Nieves line and Selman filled in for Marody. Michigan did miss Marody quite a bit, I think.
Downing playing better. Yes, he did dive to take away a passing lane and ended up disrupting Racine on one of MSU's goals over the weekend. Yes, there was a 2-on-0 on which he shot. Even so he was much more settled than he has been recently. When he's not taking five-minute penalties or offering up free odd-man rushes with low upside decisions you can see why he was a hyped draft prospect. He's big and smooth with the puck.
I'm not expecting him to suddenly be Mark Mitera; some level of error is a guarantee with him. It is nice to see him go most of a game without doing something that causes me to write and delete tweets.
Ferreal, all Michigan Hobey finalist list. The top ten in PPG:
Points Per Game: GP G- A- P P/GM 1 Kyle Connor (WPG) Michigan 25 20-24-44 1.76 2 Jimmy Vesey (NSH) Harvard 22 18-17-35 1.59 3 Andrew Poturalski New Hampshire 28 21-23-44 1.57 4 Max French Bentley 25 18-21-39 1.56 Tyler Motte (CHI) Michigan 25 25-14-39 1.56 6 JT Compher (COL) Michigan 25 10-28-38 1.52 7 Tyler Kelleher New Hampshire 28 7-33-40 1.43 Zac Lynch Robert Morris 28 20-20-40 1.43 9 Colin White (OTT) Boston College 25 16-19-35 1.40 Jake Guentzel (PIT) Omaha 25 12-23-35 1.40
That is and continues to be absolutely bonkers. Michigan has never done that, even when they were pairing Hesick and Porter.
Where did Piazza go? He got scratched this weekend despite Marody's absence, and right after his best moment of the season. Best I can figure is Michigan didn't want to double-shift on the fourth line with Marody out of the lineup and he got the axe. If Downing is having a pleasant phase I'm hard pressed to say who should sit amongst the six guys who did play in favor of Piazza; the optics there are still weird.
February 8th, 2016 at 5:04 PM ^
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February 8th, 2016 at 5:13 PM ^
Is someone saying that's bad? Is this in reference to the title? If so, I think that's referring to our ridiculous offense coupled with no defense.
February 8th, 2016 at 5:21 PM ^
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February 8th, 2016 at 6:23 PM ^
This team is not the juggernaut that 17-4-4 would indicate. The offense is one of the best of the decade but the D is in the 40's (of 60ish teams). This team is just as likely to beat a ranked team 6-2 as they are to lose to a horrible team 3-2. They are very rickety. Sort of an out of control goal scoring machine.
Think like Richrod teams vs. Illinois or Indiana. Doesn't really feel like an elite team, just kind of an out of control, white knuckle ride and the looming feeling that you'll be exposed soon
Basically life as Baylor
February 8th, 2016 at 5:21 PM ^
February 8th, 2016 at 5:36 PM ^
is a good analogy of this team this season. But, if you want to win the National Championship you do have to play some defense and this team seems bored with it. Better figure it out before the tourney starts.
February 8th, 2016 at 6:48 PM ^
The thing is, college hockey might be one of the sports where you can most easily get through the tournament / playoffs with no D. All you have to do is get hot for 4 games and in a situation like that, rolling in with the #1 offense by a full half goal a game is not a terrible position to be in
February 8th, 2016 at 5:15 PM ^
February 8th, 2016 at 5:36 PM ^
Don't know if it'd be all 3, but if season ended now Connor and Motte would almost have to be there, one leading the nation in points and the other leading in goals.
Also, LOL Motte being property of the Hawks from a 4th round pick, because of course the rich get richer
February 8th, 2016 at 5:37 PM ^
"rickety deathwagon of a team"
This is perfect. I've been expecting this team to go on a season-ruining skid for so long. Same sort of team as last year, but with better results... so far. Hold on for dear life.
February 8th, 2016 at 5:42 PM ^
Connor's numbers are on par with what Jack Eichel did last year at BU. Is he going to be a one and done or is there a chance we get him back next year?
February 8th, 2016 at 6:18 PM ^
Larkin and Eichel both blew up the NCAA and went right into being rich and being a star in the NHL. I'd bet he'll be schooling people in Winnipeg this time next year
February 8th, 2016 at 6:16 PM ^
This team shows every week why they're just as likely to beat #1 overall Quinnipiac 7-3 as they are to lose 2-0 in the opening game of the tournament. I can tell that if we make it, we'll be the tournaments most feared 2 or 3 seed. Let's just get in
February 8th, 2016 at 6:34 PM ^
They still have a frustrating inability to close (see: OT loss to State, SO loss to OSU), but they've been bouncing back in impressive fashion the next night out - something I feel like we wouldn't see from teams the last couple years.
Racine's play this past weekend was encouraging. It's clear the defense is at best sub-par, and he's going to have to make enough saves to give the offense a chance to go out and win games. He definitely did it this weekend - hopefully he finds himself a groove.
The CCM line is truly amazing. They score at least one highlight reel goal every time out, and often look like they're just toying with opponents. They've got the stuff to take this team to the promised land.
February 8th, 2016 at 7:25 PM ^
I can tell you exactly why the defense is so bad, they have no structure in their own zone and the forwards provide zero puck support. As good as the CCM line is, they only start caring when they have the puck.
February 8th, 2016 at 9:20 PM ^
Rickety deathwagon of a team?
February 9th, 2016 at 5:41 AM ^
February 9th, 2016 at 7:55 AM ^
Yes, the defense has huge holes, but looking at the entirety of college hockey this year, Michigan is actually a Top 10 team legitimately, bordering on Top 5, as scary as that sounds. Last weekend, 3 of the top 10 teams in the USCHO rankings dropped a game, and #1 Quinnipiac tied and won. MSU always plays us tough, especially at JLA, so I don't see why this is so surprising. I'm encouraged overall that the team beat MSU on the road after dropping a tough one on Friday night. If this was last year, they would have lost on Saturday as well. They didn't, Racine had two good back to back games, and we're still tied with Minnesota with games against them coming up. As long as we sweep up Wisconsin and Ohio St the rest of the year, a couple wins against Minnesota will likely get us the B1G regular season title and a nice position for an at-large if we lose in the tourney.
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