WTKA Roundtable 12/22/2022: It's Just a Job Market Comment Count

Seth December 22nd, 2022 at 11:08 AM

Things discussed:

  • Craig and Seth came on early to talk about Michigan's shifting portal strategy. Craig: new strategy is to get all high ceilings with freshmen and backfill with transfers. Seth: same portal strategy, just more guys in the portal who fit what Michigan's needs were or for whom Michigan fit their needs.
  • The 2023 class: No top-100 guys? Staff shakeup prevented them from capitalizing on last year's playoff run.
  • Seth: NIL was the story of the class, unfortunate that they didn't get the playoff payoff in recruiting because this was the year the NIL market was shaping itself out.
  • Michigan couldn't play that game well, but everyone else is bad at it, and the top-100 is riddled with families and programs who thought it was about money. I predict this class will have a lot more kids in the portal because their decisions weren't made by best fit/best school/best development, and that hurts a place like Michigan that is objectively the best in college football at those things.
  • Craig thinks Michigan's going to continue being behind on NIL. The rest of the panel thinks they won't be, that Michigan will figure out how to make their offering competitive.
  • This is a job market, a new job market, and everyone has to figure out where the level is. In the near term that means establishing a collective and pay a salary to all the players. In the long term that means the market itself coming to terms with itself. In the short term this meant Michigan wasn't used to having these conversations, parents didn't know how to have these conversations, intermediaries were trying to get in an direct these conversations.
  • Portal: They're mostly not plugging holes, they're adding guys, maximizing this window where they're championship caliber. Gotta care about the future and recruiting over your own guys, but I don't think Michigan's done that. If you're walking into your starting job at Michigan, they're going to fix that. Brian: A lot of the guys they got have 2+ years, e.g. Myles Hinton could redshirt and that makes him more like a recruit.
  • Cornerback? They're looking, but options aren't as there. Should try to talk Turner into coming back because his draft stock isn't high right now.
  • Corum? Seriously 50-50. Sam thinks he should go *shut up Sam!!!* but retaining stars like him is more possible with NIL because you can offer them security that the NFL won't.
  • Favorite players of the class? We all have them. Jyaire Hill could be really special but probably not in Year 1.
  • Hoops? Dickinson had a bad day, the quadruple technical was stupid on the refs and stupid on HD. Rough situation where they have three guys who aren't going to be great every day, and nobody else who can give them a boost.

[Hit the JUMP for the player, and video and stuff]

You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream.

Segment 2 is here. Seth & Craig's early segment is here. You can watch the video here:

https://twitter.com/michiganinsider/status/1605927943972474881

The Usual Links:

It's a very fungible thing, money.

Comments

DaftPunk

December 22nd, 2022 at 11:22 AM ^

The quadruple Tech was bad, but it looked like HD was kicking/poking the NC player on the floor, and his actions started the whole mess.  Bufkin got wrecked on that play, but is looking like a stud in ways Caleb Houstan never did.

1989 UM GRAD

December 22nd, 2022 at 12:08 PM ^

I'm still (probably irrationally) optimistic about this year's basketball team.

Jett is better than Caleb.

Kobe contributes more than Eli.

This year's Dickinson is better than last year's Dickinson.

I think Williams is probably a push with Moussa.  Less talented but more experienced.

I'm not so sure Dug is really a downgrade from Jones.

So, maybe it all comes together in Feb/March and they make a run?

tybert

December 22nd, 2022 at 12:06 PM ^

1. I'd expect Courm to go pro, though would love to have him back. He should recover well enough from this injury, but not in time for the combines. He may drop a round or two just because people can't real check out the tires in person. Have to wonder if this scare from the torn meniscus makes him wary of returning next year and having a more serious injury.  Would love to see the Lions take a late 2nd day pick on him and start him out as a 3rd down back.

2. Losing our DC probably didn't hurt as much as having three DCs in three years. Losing Gattis probably hurt us more than we'd like to admit. He would have probably locked down a good QB and maybe some RB/WR talent. I love what Moore and Weiss have done but our O looked similar to what Josh had created, except now we have a running QB with a cannon. Josh burnt his bridge on the way out, but think we'd still be 13-0 with him. Funny thing for Josh is he'd have likely been a strong candidate for the Purdue job had he stayed and we had as season like this. Now he's one more bad season from being thrown under the bus.

3. Given what's happened to Ohio (losing 4 and 5 star guys to SEC because of NIL), I expect Santa to hear from rich alums about the need to make UM a much easier place to do business - even if I don't care for some of this (if it looks like bribery....). However, the NIL is really the fault of an egotistical NCAA that for decades was draconian and vindictive. Still remember the days when bagels could be given but no cream cheese (this has changed, but was so silly). Or when Steve Alford posed for a charity calendar while at IU for a sorority and NCAA made him sit out the Kentucky game, even though he got no money and no money was made to profit anyone beyond a sorority fundraiser. 

4. HD made the right choice to stay - he's Luka Garza but not as great. I hope he stays a full 4 years just to set a few records and leave his make with another Sweet 16 or two. 

Vote_Crisler_1937

December 22nd, 2022 at 12:21 PM ^

I didn’t know the Steve Alford story. I shouldn’t have done that date auction for a sorority. Or admitted it on the internet. Whoops. At least it was way back in the days of “no cream cheese”. 

Totally agree that losing Gattis hurt recruiting. I don’t think Michigan’s offense can be called Gattis’s creation. This is fully weaponized Harbaugh offense with some input from all 3 involved (Gattis, Moore, Weis). 

Tacopants

December 22nd, 2022 at 4:01 PM ^

It's doubtful that Michigan would have gotten a top flight QB target pre-season when almost all of them had committed. If Cade had won the job he's got the profile of a CFB lifer. If JJ wins the job, well, it's better but they definitely won't start as a freshman. Even if they don't land a 4-5* heir apparent next year they can likely entice a Rudock type from the portal to tide them over.

 

WR is a similar-ish story. Look at UM's depth chart, it's stacked with WRs. Combined with how the staff uses WRs and it's an uphill battle before NIL or the Gattis departure are factored in. Based on the actions of the staff it looks like they'd rather lock down athletic TEs and hope that a raw WR will develop in a couple of years.

 

Losing Gattis hurt on the recruiting trail but it's pretty clear that Michigan's complex run-first game plan was not developed by Gattis. Looking at Miami's offensive results indicates that maybe Gattis isn't the offensive genius some think he is.

 

Blinkin

December 22nd, 2022 at 8:41 PM ^

I think your take on Gattis is correct. He IS an excellent recruiter, no point denying that. However, last year's shift in philosophy that led to our offense suddenly becoming potent after years of spinning its wheels feels much more like some combination of Harbaugh, Moore, and Weiss taking control away from Gattis.

abertain

December 22nd, 2022 at 12:50 PM ^

It's interesting to hear them talking about how they are struggling with a clogged paint, but you aren't using Joey Baker all that much. He spaces the floor. He needs to play more because Michigan depends so much on tossing it into HD. 

I mean, I like them using Jet more on pin downs and letting Kobe work as well. Ie, I think they can continue to find spots outside of HD. However, that is your bread and butter, so you need to work  a roster around it like Purdue did with their bigs.

I am a bit mystified by the rotations. It's not that i think Baker is a perfect player. He's not quick on D, and he struggles to rebound at times, but it's not like he's playing behind Moussa or something. He should be a sixth man for Michigan who spends way more time on the court than off.

With Dug, you just have to role with it because of the injury and transfer. But when HD is out, I like seeing a more aggressive Kobe and making sure Jet is out there. I think Michigan will keep getting better and have some wins. 

If they wanted to be really good, they'd have to commit to defending and rebounding, which have a lot to do with effort, and I don't know if they will get there. 

ERdocLSA2004

December 22nd, 2022 at 1:26 PM ^

I think it’s time to stop saying that we are “behind in NIL”.  That implies that we don’t know what we are doing, and are trying to catch up but can’t.  
 

This is definitely not the case.  M is well aware of how NIL is being run at other places.  They have decided they are going to do it differently and live with the consequences.  This is a conscious decision.

jdraman

December 22nd, 2022 at 1:32 PM ^

Craig I can appreciate you trying to give TWill some praise, but he in no way shape or form “stuffed Nance in a trash can”. Nance just wasn’t a focus of the UNC offense last night. They were playing through Bacot first and then getting their guards Davis and Love in ball screen actions against our guards and putting Dickinson in the torture rack. Sure Williams gobbled up lots of loose boards, but he also gave up two pretty crucial Orebs down the stretch one of which was literally in his hands. He also committed two of the worst and-one fouls I’ve seen down the stretch of the game. Although I think I agree with the larger point you were making; Twill is going to get this much criticism because he’s been put in the unfortunate position of being a starter when he really shouldn’t be. Juwan and co. Have fumbled the roster construction so badly that it forced Williams, a good rotation bench forward, into a role that he’s really not quite cut out for. 

jdraman

December 22nd, 2022 at 4:06 PM ^

Also I want to further commend you for sticking up for Twill. I’ll admit that I can get overzealous in criticizing players and coaches in game threads, just like any fan online in the heat of a game . And so I appreciate you trying to give the kid some props when he just might need a confidence boost.

Lancer

December 22nd, 2022 at 2:18 PM ^

Give Corrum a huge bag to stay if that is a possibility. My questions is at what point does it make sense for him to stay? I am saying around 3 million plus insurance for his rookie deal if get injured. He will likely be a third or fourth round pick. 

bronxblue

December 22nd, 2022 at 2:52 PM ^

It is a bit of whiplash hearing this site (and the larger UM community) talk about how far behind UM is at NIL, then say that maybe other schools aren't that much better but just different in their approach, and back to the sky is falling.

UM is very good at making money and I don't think they're going to be dinosaurs here.  But they aren't going to do an A&M/Miami approach and while that may cost them in a cycle long term it certainly feels like they have a plan.

JBLPSYCHED

December 22nd, 2022 at 3:56 PM ^

The headline point during the NIL discussion in the roundtable was that 'nobody knows.' Nobody knows how to do this, nobody really knows what others are doing, and they said that most of the straight up pay-for-play deals are happening at southern schools. Texas A&M is the #1 example but many of those schools in the SEC have been paying players under the table for years. Now it's 'legal' so they're doing it more openly but the details are sketchy.

As Seth said, it's a brand new job market and the going rates haven't been set yet, let alone the best practices. Is it better to pay guys big $$$ to enroll in the first place or give them a modest 'salary' and perhaps incentives for performance on top of that? Or will it turn out that paying guys to enroll from the portal is a better idea b/c they have established track records as college athletes vs. the high school kids?

Nobody knows and we fans have no clue either. My opinion: to the extent that Michigan is offering modest deals instead of larger and more immediate payouts to high school kids, I support it. There are probably exceptions to that where they want to offer some supposedly can't miss kids more but in general it's better to proceed cautiously with eyes wide open while figuring out what works.

MaynardST

December 25th, 2022 at 2:48 AM ^

If players like Corum and McCarthy are giving so much NIL money to charity, why can't the public donate to an NIL fund they direct for charity purposes and get a tax deduction?  Otherwise, trying to get a deduction for NIL contributions is questionable and controversial.

MaynardST

December 25th, 2022 at 2:52 AM ^

I'm not sure that Gattis was such a big loss.  I find myself supporting the Ravens as my second favorite team so John Harbaugh keeps his job and Michigan can continue to find good assistant coaches.