Let's preview some basketball

Ace: They even have a non-conference schedule of sorts now. With, uh, eight days to spare. This is my way of preparing people for a weird season.

Brian: For the record, that's home games against BGSU, Oakland, UCF, and NC State.

Ace: And Ball State.

Brian: All of which take on outsized importance because the NCAA tournament selection and seeding process is going to be running on very little intra-conference data.

Ace: Yes, this is a bad year to trip up early. The good news is Michigan has coaching continuity and a relatively experienced roster. The bad news is their turnover is at the two toughest positions to seamlessly replace. Realistically, though, they should go 5-0 or 4-1 against that slate.

Seth: So what do they do with the Big Ten teams that have a losing conference record this year? How many leagues aren't even participating?

Ace: I have no idea but it doesn’t seem like a good sign that the Ivy League has already bailed (though they’re an unusual case) and no conference appears to have a plan. A lot is going to depend on how many conferences can play and also how big a field they can safely host at the NCAA Tournament. It wouldn’t shock me if it was just the high majors and a 32- or 16-team field.

Seth: Those conferences are pinched pretty tightly between not having the resources to play a COVID season safely and relying on basketball revenue to fund their entire departments.

Ace: Indeed. I don’t have a good solution for that.

Brian: I think most mid-major conferences are going to try to get someone to the tourney because that's where much of their money comes from.

Seth: Right, and what shape they're in and who have they played is going to be hell to sort through. For our purposes this means Michigan really should make sure they're a top-25 team to guarantee a spot in whatever the postseason is.

Brian: Yeah there's going to be absolutely no way to sort through bubble teams.

Ace: Well, uh, the good news is the Big Ten doesn’t have an obvious favorite unless you’re one of the Iowa believers, which I don’t think applies to anyone here. The bad news is it’s an entire conference of tournament or bubble teams. Plus Nebraska and Northwestern.

Seth: I imagine if Luka Garza could become a functional defender he'd be in the NBA. Do we have tiers?

​
the top of the big ten

Ace: It’s difficult not to stick half the league in a tier. Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin have earned “gonna assume they’re good” status and the Badgers, in particular, aren’t dealing with much attrition at all. Iowa could have the best offense in the country and still finish outside the top 25, which is in fact what Bart Torvik projects. Illinois has a strong top four and a good coach. Rutgers is feisty. Purdue finds a way most years even if this looks like a down one. Indiana and Minnesota have talent if they can coach it. It’s a good league!

Seth: Purdue is a flat circle. Also they banished all the bricklayers.

Brian: Yeah I keep wanting to dump on certain teams because they were barely above .500 in the league and then I'm like oh that 11-9 Big Ten team finished 8th on Kenpom. That's OSU, for the record.

Ace: Every team is inside the top 75 on Torvik’s preseason projections except for Nebraska, which is 101st—not bad at all for the worst team in a conference.

Seth: Maryland didn't bring in any five-stars and lost Jalen Smith to the NBA so maybe one of the knives in MURDERCONFERENCE is less sharp?

Ace: They do look headed for a transition year.

But, like, Rutgers is good now!

Brian: I am going to hazard some tiers.

TITLE FREE-FOR-ALL

Wisconsin
Illinois
Iowa
Michigan State
Ohio State
Michigan

SCRABBLING FOR BID

Rutgers
Indiana
Purdue
Maryland
Minnesota

EATEN ALIVE

Penn State
Northwestern
Nebraska

Ace: Those look fair to me.

Brian: Normally these would not be so broad but I don't think there's much separation.

Seth: My last act before the shutdown was making a third Rutgerschart for the BTT. It has an arrow pointing to Geo Baker's very large two-point jumper bar that says "3% of these were assisted." Just wanted to have that in the world.

Ace: Speaking of Rutgers, one factor I have no idea how to account for is the lack of fans for teams that tend to thrive off home-court advantage. Not to throw shade at the Crisler crowds or anything but that probably works in Michigan’s favor.

Seth: /Remembers Michigan beating them in a road and quasi-road game last year.

Brian: All right, let's lightning round these teams.

[After THE JUMP: running through our comically large first tier]

HOW ARE YOU STILL ELIGIBLE [Campredon]

WISCONSIN

Brian: Does not get enough credit for the prospect of having Micah Potter around 100% of the time this year.

Ace: Yeah, having two viable stretch bigs is danger. D’Mitrik Trice is this year’s Robbie Hummel 8th-Year Senior Award Winner.

Seth: Brad Davison is a senior, which means the grittiness is going to make them unwatchable.

Brian: Potter would have had a top 20 true shooting % nationally if he had enough minutes to qualify at 28% usage. If they can figure out how to play Potter and Reuvers together some they're going to be a bear.

Ace: He’s one of two players I really don’t think is getting enough love preseason and the only one that doesn’t make me look like a homer. Even if they can’t play the two bigs together a lot, being able to play your center full-go knowing you have another good one is a big deal.

Brian: Yes, the Wagner/Teske lesson.

Ace: If I had to choose a favorite to win the conference, it’s probably this team. Gard has proven to be legit, they’re pretty much the same team as last year, and Potter will be fully incorporated from the start.

Seth: I want to move on not think about Wisconsin winning the COVID season.

Brian: They return everyone except Just A Shooter Brevin Pritzl. (And Kobe King, but they took off after he left last year.) Their offense can tolerate the fact no one can get to the bucket if they have killer stretch fives and ope they do.

wait why are you still here too [Campredon]

ILLINOIS

Seth: Has not had a player drafted to the NBA since 2012 so maybe they didn't know that's a thing?

Ace: Yeah, Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn both came back.

Both are already good and have plenty of upside left to explore.

Brian: Have to give Brad Underwood a ton of credit for trashing his entire style and admitting defeat at the Big Ten level of competition.

Ace: He’s a good coach. He still has a scary offense and his defenses no longer play in a way that’s nonsensical.

Brian: Biggest question: can anyone shoot? They lost Alan Griffin, a 42% three-point shooter on 113 attempts. Their next best guy with any sample size was Trent Frazier at 30%.

Seth: Giorgi Bezhanishvili is a steely-eyed missile man when he has to be.

Ace: Frazier has always been a good shooter until a down year last year. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Dosunmu breaks out a bit. His peripherals have always been good but he’s always had to work through taking a lot of difficult shots. He shot 76% from the FT line last year but only hit 29% of his threes.

Brian: They're bringing in a touted PG, Adam Miller, who might help out there. And he might take some of the playmaking burden from Dosunmu. Andres Feliz is gone and he was the only other guy with an assist rate. Their other freshman guard is not reputed to be a shooter.

Ace: Being able to play Dosunmu off the ball on occasion would be really nice for them. I don’t see this team winning a title because I think they’re a little top-heavy and might have some big swings from game to game. Their best is gonna be very good, though.

Brian: IOWA

Ace: go vroom

other team go vroom too

Seth: Jordan Bohannon returns doesn't he?

Brian: Yes. They lose Kriener, who I think is a bigger loss than people understand, but they get Bohannon back and Jack Nunge is coming off a weird redshirt.

Ace: Trice has to split that award, dang.

Seth: Between Bohannon and Joe Wieskamp and CJ Fredrick it's going to rain.

Ace: And Garza!

Seth: That's not rain.

Ace: Fair but he still shoots 36% from deep.

Seth: I just mean the salt content.

Brian: I think we're all relatively skeptical of top five Iowa but I do think that there is a version of this team that is 2014 Michigan and can outrun its own defense. That's a full-strength Bohannon, Wieskamp taking the leap we thought he would last year, and Fredrick making a freshman-to-sophomore leap.

Seth: I'm very much looking forward to Round 2 of Fredrick vs Franz. They gave us a taste last year.

Ace: I’m guessing Fredrick is getting Chaundee Brown in that matchup. But yes, they have maybe the most upside in the conference, it’s just contingent on playing defense at a level no Fran McCaffery team has before.

Brian: Yeah and that defense doesn't have a lot of upside since one of the main problems with it is Garza.

Ace: Bohannon and Joe Toussaint are huge swing players. Bohannon for obvious health reasons, Toussaint because he’s very athletic and flashes high-level talent but was just a mess as a freshman. He had to step into Bohannon’s shoes and wasn’t ready at all.

Seth: 83% FT shooter who shot under 30%.

Brian: Not everyone who's a good FT shooter can hit threes and it really looked like Toussaint was in that boat. That shot is broke. But he's the backup PG.

Ace: Yeah, I’m more wondering if he’s got more to add off the dribble. The game moved fast for him last year and he was a turnover machine.

Seth: He had one of the more crowded chart areas.

Brian: Coronavirus silver lining: We're totally going to get to hear Fran screaming at officials in an empty arena.

maybe this is the breakout year for Aaron Henry [Campredon]

MICHIGAN STATE

Ace: Speaking of.

Brian: Good riddance to Xavier Tillman, a very nice guy who murdered Michigan basketball for three years.

Ace: Ditto Cassius Winston, who solved for X.

Seth: Does this mean they're going to play a tradition bi--aw hamburgers.

Ace: They now have a roster full of very talented players who haven’t done it yet. And Joey Hauser.

Brian: Yeah given what we've seen from Bingham I would not be surprised if freshman Mady Cissoko stepped in at the 5. Bingham is a stick.

Ace: I could also see Bingham becoming a terror. His range of outcomes is vast.

Seth: Ditto Gabe Brown, whom we thought would break out last year?

Brian: Their season likely rests on Rocket Watts and Aaron Henry. Watts is stepping into some enormous shoes and needs a leap after a freshman year where he shot 50/28 and had a tiny free throw rate. I don't know if we can say anything about his ability to create for teammates because of Winston. He may be much better as an on-ball player.

Ace: Watts is another dude who has a huge range of outcomes. Super talented, really athletic, played like a freshman who didn’t really know what he was doing. He’ll be a defensive upgrade and we’ll see how much of an offensive downgrade he is—there’s no way to match Winston’s last few years yet.

Seth: All of MSU's % points assisted rates are ludicrous because of Winston.

Ace: Josh Langford is still around!

Seth: Omigod what is he a double-redshirt senior? No wait...2016.

Brian: And he'll still have eligibility next year!

Ace: The Hummel Award is getting split three ways. And yet we can’t get X back for another year, criminal.

Seth: MSU's athletic department is going to get him eight medshirts and he'll still be at State in 2030.

Brian: Major major question marks about and an annoying number of them will work out for MSU because Izzo, but not a team that stands out above the pack IMO.

you doubt that we belong here? [Campredon]

OHIO STATE

Ace: Losing the Wessons hurts but Chris Holtmann is an elite coach and they’ve got plenty of options for the rotation.

Brian: Should I have put them in this tier? I dunno.

They're relying heavily on Seth Towns, the Harvard transfer, and had a weirdly bad recruiting class--three guys outside the top 100.

Ace: I think they belong here. Holtmann’s made a lot out of less and they also get Cal transfer and NOTY candidate Justice Sueing off his sit-out year.

Brian: Sueing was a 22% usage guy on a bad Cal team in a bad Pac-12 who was fine all-around; his best offensive skill is getting to the line.

Ace: Their main problem could be size. Kyle Young is a good offensive rebounder but he’s not exactly an imposing post presence. EJ Liddell is 6'6'. Those are their centers.

Brian: It kind of feels like everyone on Ohio State this year is a third banana. Towns might be the exception but hard to bank on an Ivy transfer being the guy.

Ace: Ivy transfer who had high-major interest, though.

Brian: That is true, Towns was a Trademark Tommy Amaker Recruiting Coup(tm).

Seth: Like MSU they have an Ahrens Extreme Just a Shooter.

Brian: I dunno I look at this roster and I feel like this is an 8 seed, but Holtmann's made a lot of chicken salad.

Ace: I’m thinking the same. He finds a way. The bubble issue we talked about earlier could hurt them because I don’t see them pushing to the very top of the conference.

MICHIGAN

Brian: uh ace has this one covered i think

Stay tuned later this week for Part Two, covering the rest of the conference.