Unverified Voracity Does Slight Math Comment Count

Brian November 27th, 2019 at 10:47 AM

Sponsor note. Get your holiday shopping done early with unrivaled gift ideas from Michigan Stadium Products, founded by friend of the blog Martin Vloet. Get a head start on Black Friday deals and snag a limited Victors Edition Michigan Stadium Pen or Cazzie Russell Edition Crisler Arena Pen before they disappear (fewer than 300 of each available)! Order through Cyber Monday and save 15% with code MGBHOLIDAY19.

VictorsPen-Box(1024wp)

The Michigan Stadium collectibles are crafted from the redwood seats installed prior to the 1927 Big House dedication and the Crisler Arena keepsakes are made from the maple flooring installed in 1965 at the House that Cazzie built. In addition to the limited edition pens, each premium collection feature cuff links, pendants, and bottle openers. Everyday options include Michigan Stadium bracelets but if you don’t know what to give your favorite fan, get them a gift card.

The header. Via the University of Michigan Heritage project, that's Eugene Waxman, age 5, acting in his capacity as a "drum minor" in 1949.

A real-life Madden kid. John Harbaugh's got Lamar Jackson and—slightly less important—a guy in the booth punching stuff into a fourth down bot:

One thing Harbaugh has taken a close look at is how he can best give the Ravens an edge with his in-game decision-making. For years, he’s had a staffer in the booth communicating win probabilities to him during games. First, it was Matt Weiss, who has since become the running backs coach. This season, it’s football analyst (that’s his official title) Daniel Stern, a 25-year-old behavioral economics major who grew up in Baltimore, got his degree from Yale and is in his fourth season with the Ravens.

During the week, Stern, Harbaugh and other members of the Ravens coaching staff come up with a plan for how they want to approach each game from a strategic perspective. They decide on a set of rules that will give them the best chance to win, and Stern reminds Harbaugh of those rules on the headset during the game. At the beginning of that drive against the Seahawks, they talked about how they wanted to be aggressive in short yardage. But with a third-and-15 run play called, it seemed unlikely that they were going to be in short yardage. Jackson, as he’s done all season, exceeded expectations with his run. The numbers said to go for it, but it wasn’t a no-brainer.

“There was definitely an advantage to going for it in that situation, mathematically it was the correct thing to do,” Stern says weeks later. “But if it had been fourth-and-4 or fourth-and-5, then it wouldn’t have been the correct thing to do. It was fourth-and-2, I think it was either a long 2 or a regular 2. It definitely wasn’t one-and-a-half. It definitely was a full 2 yards.”

Hopefully the brothers get together and this osmoses its way over to Ann Arbor.

[After THE JUMP: math]

Someone did the math. This is necessarily rough since it didn't come from Connelly, but a reasonable guess as to where Michigan's offense has been over the past five games:

Ugh, hope.

1969. Orion Sang with an oral history on events of 50 years ago:

Bo’s arrival

In the offseason, former coach Bump Elliott moved into an administrative role within the athletic department. His replacement was Bo Schembechler, a fiery, ‘tyrannical’ disciple of Woody Hayes who arrived from Miami (Ohio). Schembechler ran off dozens of players that offseason — and also began preparing his new team for Ohio State, whether they knew it or not.

Brandstatter: “He came in and was a maniac.”

McKenzie: “He was a real asshole.”

Dana Coin, linebacker/kicker: “When he came up in the winter and we started the winter program, we probably lost 14 or 15 guys.”

Dierdorf: “I think right off the bat, they were happy to remind us that they weren’t there (in 1968). They were in Miami of Ohio when that happened. It was entirely our fault.

Back in Mckeesport. Also in the Athletic, a profile of Khaleke Hudson:

McKeesport is a quintessential Rust Belt mill town located along the Monongahela River. It once was home to a National Tube Works plant that employed more than 7,000 people. As the mills closed and the manufacturing jobs dried up, population dwindled.

Mae Hudson, Khaleke’s grandmother, lives in a neighborhood just up the hill from the high school. She’s a lifelong McKeesport resident who has no plans to leave, despite the changes she’s observed. Signs of urban decay are everywhere: abandoned houses, boarded-up windows, empty storefronts. For Mae, those eyesores are reminders of enduring civic neglect.

“Parts just look like a ghost town,” she said. “I don’t see any redevelopment. It’s just not growing like it used to.”

Hockey cavalry is coming part X. Craig Button's 2020 NHL draft rankings feature Michigan commits Thomas Bordeleau at #25 and Brendan Brisson at #33. HockeyProspect.com's November update has Bordeleau at 25 and Brisson at 27. Bordeleau is an NTDP who's signed and will be on campus next year. There's been no indication yet that Brisson's signed his LOI yet but you have to figure he's coming in what with the dearth of forward skill on the current roster.

Etc.: Eat your heart out, Ron Hextall. A brief history of MACtion. Jace Howard profiled.

Comments

NittanyFan

November 27th, 2019 at 11:11 AM ^

The MACtion article that Brian linked to --- it is definitely worth a read.  Good article.

When I lived in Cincinnati, the Managing Director of our office was a Miami grad.  He was a diehard RedHawk football fan, so he would go to to those mid-week MACtion games in Oxford.  Not the most fun drive on cold and already dark November weekdays, fighting some rush-hour traffic. 

He always referred to the crowds as "myself, 2 students, 87 other nutcase fans like me, 10 REAL nutcase fans who made the drive for the other team, and 100 parents.  Total of 200!"

KodiakGT

November 27th, 2019 at 11:59 AM ^

My S&P+ projections incorporate recent performance, recent recruiting, and returning production; early in the season, they carry significant weight, and they are phased out with increasing speed. After a team has played seven games, its preseason projections are completely phased out of the S&P+ equation.

There is a decent case for keeping the preseason numbers involved for much longer than that, but maintaining anything beyond seven weeks has not, in my experience, changed predictive accuracy to any major degree.

According to Connelly preseason ratings are mostly phased out by week 7, but entirely by week 8.

jmblue

November 27th, 2019 at 11:38 AM ^

Dick Caldarazzo, offensive guard: “We had no hot water in the showers after the game

What sort of competitive advantage do you gain by turning off the hot water after the game is over?

Apparently Woody Hayes was a normally-functioning human being in other contexts.  Just not this one.

WestQuad

November 27th, 2019 at 11:53 AM ^

I miss math.  I'm in software/web/app product management and sales/BD.   I'll put together a pro forma, or show how a customer funnel is being cut off using math, but 99.9% of decisions are made based on executive gut often damning the numbers.  I'd love to be John Harbaugh's numbers gopher  (though I'm not qualified.)

Swayze Howell Sheen

November 27th, 2019 at 12:38 PM ^

It won't be long until the next NFL cheating scandal, which will be a coach in the booth secretly logging into some computer to access deep learning models to call the next play. This is almost guaranteed to happen and will absolutely give you an edge.

oriental andrew

November 27th, 2019 at 12:58 PM ^

That would actually be a really interesting exhibition game. One football team coached by a regular staff, another team coached by a Watson-powered AI (think Deep Blue for chess, AlphaGo for go, Libratus for poker).

Based on what I've read, the play/turn based nature of football could be conducive to something like AI - e.g., calling offensive plays or defensive formations, when to use timeouts, when to go for it vs. punt vs. FG, etc. It would require some nifty and advanced video software which could be sent to the AI with near real-time interpretation and play-calling. 

Interesting thought experiment, at least. 

Alumnus93

November 27th, 2019 at 2:19 PM ^

Am impressed with the Ravens, enough so that I think they're the favorite, not the Pats. Jackson is a HOF to be.