Three weeks have passed since we last checked in on Michigan Baseball and Softball, so it's about time to do another update. The two teams were wading into B1G play during the last one and now are well into the meat of those two campaigns. The needle is pointing slightly upwards for softball after a choppy beginning, while it's pointing sideways or slightly down for baseball (in the near term), but plenty of storylines for both. Today we'll be looking at softball, while tomorrow I'll be covering baseball. These are going to be shorter pieces, but I thought it was a little more user friendly to break them up and spread the content out. 

 

Softball: Still Meeting Expectations

At the last installment, I noted that Michigan's non-conference portion of the season was rather choppy and its signature wins rather ugly, but that they were doing enough to meet expectations. I said that they were on track to make the NCAA Tournament if they could finish in the upper half of the B1G, since a brutally difficult non-conference and notching just enough quality wins had bolstered their RPI. Since then the team has done basically exactly that, nothing incredible but sticking in that top quartile of the B1G they need to be in. Doin' alright. 

Season results since we last talked: Last update came just before the Nebraska series and the first three B1G series of April have been identical to each other, taking two of three from the Huskers, two of three from Illinois, and two of three from Purdue. Given that Purdue and Illinois are both brutally bad, dropping games to both squads is not what you want to see if your goal was to make a run at Northwestern for the conference crown, but I never considered that terribly realistic in a rebuilding year. If the main goal is to stay in the NCAAs and keep momentum rolling forward as Bonnie Tholl turns over the roster, then three series victories is enough to tick that box. 

The Nebraska series was totally fine, as the Huskers are one of the best non-Northwestern teams in the B1G. I lamented Michigan's lack of offense in my last update and then less than 24 hours later, Michigan bludgeoned Nebraska in a 10-0 run rule. Only one homer in that game (another by Keke Tholl), but the Wolverines churned out 14 hits, which was a very welcome sight. Unfortunately, they got run-ruled by Nebraska in game #2 after a dreadful hitting performance, setting up the rubber match on Sunday, a solid win powered by a Lexie Blair two RBI double, small ball offense, and strong pitching from Lauren Derkowski.

 [Bill Rapai]

After that, the team hosted Illinois, a much lower scoring series and one in line with what we've seen from the team this year. They got shut out by the Illini in game one, Derkowski giving up one in the first and a two run HR in the third, and the offense failing to capitalize on eight different baserunners against Illinois' Sydney Sickels (no idea how she's still in college). The Wolverines responded with a 3-2 win in the Saturday game, a rare homer by anyone other than Tholl doing the damage as freshman Maddie Erickson left the yard with a three run blast. Jessica LeBeau worked in and out of trouble and was relieved by Derkowski, who ran into major problems in the seventh, allowing a two-run double to cut it to one run. She allowed a single, moving the tying runner up to third, but then got a foul pop up to end the game. If that tension wasn't enough, Michigan needed extras to knock off Illinois on Easter Sunday and claim the series, winning 2-1 in the eighth on a walk-off Keke Tholl double. 

The team headed off to East Lansing during the mid-week to take on MSU in a game that was re-scheduled from a week prior. The Spartans are currently last in the B1G, but got a 2-0 lead in the first three innings. A three-run fourth with big knocks from Audrey LeClair and Blair gave Michigan the lead and they'd hang onto it for a 5-2 win. Over the weekend they then headed to West Lafayette to take on the Boilers, the other worst team in the conference besides MSU. Derkowski pitched the first and third games of the series and threw *two* no-hitters, giving Michigan shutout wins 4-0 and 5-0 in the two games. Unfortunately, they dropped the second game by a score of 3-2, a two-run double by Tholl not being enough as Michigan's bats were very quiet. Finally, Michigan took on MSU this past week at home, a comfortable 8-0 run rule victory. No third-straight no hitter for Derkowski but another shut out effort as Michigan moved to 9-5 in B1G play. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: The good and the bad]

[Bill Rapai]

What does it mean?: Not a whole lot has changed in terms of the bigger picture. Michigan's RPI has slipped some to 33rd (it was 23rd last time), but that still qualifies them for the tournament picture, as it's the top 35-40 you want to be in for an at-large, depending on how AQs shake out. Moreover, most bracketology projections have them in rather comfortably at the moment. I think in a perfect world you'd have liked to have both the losses to Illinois (70th in RPI) and Purdue (104th) back, but neither have done fatal damage so far. As I'll get to in the upcoming schedule section, Michigan has a big chance to bolster the RPI and set themselves up much better for the NCAAs if they can take 2 of 3 from Northwestern at home this weekend, and the remaining regular season schedule outside of the mid-week games are all top 40 RPI teams, so they don't have too many opportunities to drop dramatically, with upside benefit being more prevalent. 

As for the B1G standings, things are a bit clustered right now. Michigan sits at 9-5 and again, you'd have liked to have swept 3-11 Illinois and 3-11 Purdue. Instead of sitting tied for third, they'd be in sole possession of second but alas. Northwestern is atop the league at 13-1, very likely to wrap up the conference crown (the bigger question for NU at 8th in RPI is if they can be a super regional host seed), while Nebraska sits in second at 10-4. Michigan is tied at 9-5 with Indiana, next weekend's opponent, while Wisconsin (7-5), OSU/Iowa (8-6), and Rutgers (7-7) are further down in the standings. For the BTT, you very much want to finish top four to get the bye to the quarterfinals and ideally to be on that 2/3 line so you're on the opposite side of the bracket as Northwestern. Given the current standings, the Maize & Blue are in fine position to be top four, but will have to play well down the stretch to finish 2nd or 3rd. Indiana's got an easier remaining schedule, so the H2H games next weekend are big. Nebraska's got a decently tough schedule and Michigan owns the tiebreak, so jumping the Huskers seems feasible. 

[Bill Rapai]

Who's hot, who's not?: Let's start with Derkowski, who remains the pillar supporting this team. She's not a national superstar level ace, but we're starting to see a pathway for her to get there in her upperclass years. The ERA is down to 1.60 after three straight scoreless outings, the WHIP has dipped under 1.00, and she's striking out 10.5 batters per 7 innings. The difference between Derkowski's starts/innings and anyone else's is pretty dramatic and the biggest story with the team right now.

Jessica LeBeau could be a solid #3 arm in the B1G, but she's not a #2 for a team that wants to challenge Northwestern and do anything nationally. Her ERA is over 3.00, she's giving up too much hard contact, and the command is too wild (2.8 BB/7 and 1.4 HBP/7!!). Record for a pitcher in softball is more useful than baseball but still isn't perfect. That said, the numbers are stark: Derkowski is 16-7 and LeBeau is 7-9. The reserve arms, Emerson Aiken and Hannah George, are completely unusable in a competitive game. Shoring up pitching depth beyond Derkowski has to be a priority for next season. 

Not much has changed on the offense front, as Michigan remains a low-scoring team with a distressing lack of power. Their team OPS is below .700 and the SLG of .363 is only marginally higher than it was the last time I wrote about the team. They have somehow hit only 16 games in 39 games, 195th in HR/game nationally and 11th in the B1G. For contrast, next weekend's opponent Indiana has hit 60 in 46 games. I've been banging this drum for five years now, but Michigan Softball cannot be a serious national contender for anything until they do a total reversal in their power numbers. Keke Tholl has seven homers (solid)... no one else has more than two. Lexie Blair and Ellie Sieler are the other two hitters (maybe Ellie Mataya too) who I would qualify as decent to good NCAA hitters besides Tholl, Lexie leading the team with an .861 OPS. 

The rest of their team is contributing nothing offensively. Melina Livingston, Janelle Ilacqua, Maddie Erickson, Ella McVay, and Audrey LeClair have combined to start 157 games and have seven combined XBHs of any variety. Michigan as a team against a respectable opponent has a couple good hitters who they hope can grind out 2-3 runs and then have to cross their fingers and hope that's enough if Derkowski in the circle. A lot of times it has been, but the issue is it hasn't been when LeBeau is pitching. This is a team of Hutch's players (she didn't retire until late August when the roster was set) and it's on Bonnie Tholl in the coming seasons to recruit players from HS and nab players out of the portal who can turn the offense around and build a lineup capable of better supporting the pitching. 

Honoring the icon this weekend [Bryan Fuller]

What to expect moving forward: Michigan plays host to Northwestern starting tomorrow in a three game series. Saturday's game is a very special occasion, the official re-naming of Alumni Field to "Carol Hutchins Stadium". I didn't write anything on it at the time it was announced, but it is the correct thing to do. As I wrote about in the fall, Hutch more or less built Alumni Field. When she got to Michigan, it was not much of a stadium at all and it was the rampant success of her program in the 90s and 00s that continually forced Michigan to keep building more and more seating and upgrade the facilities into what is now one of the better stadiums in college softball. Only fitting and hopefully it will be a very nice send-off (that day is also Title IX Celebration day, which is also fitting given how immense the impact of that legislation was on Hutchins' life and career). 

As for the softball being played, this is a huge series for Michigan. Northwestern is a terrific team, a legit WCWS contender, and a model for how to succeed nationally in the B1G in the 2020s that hopefully Bonnie Tholl is studying. Michigan can greatly help not just their RPI but also their quest for a high seed in the BTT if they can defend home field and take 2/3. I would pitch Derkowski in all three games, if her arm can handle it. The week after that is the final home series for the Wolverines, a big three game set against Indiana with huge implications for the B1G seeding chase. If the weather looks good, I'd recommend buying tickets and coming on down for a game one of these two weekends if you live in the area.

Finally, they get two mid-week games against WMU and Oakland (cannot lose either), before heading off to face 25-16 Minnesota. A reasonable benchmark for "success" in these final three weekends is probably to take 2/3 from all three teams (or just going 6-3 overall). That would likely put you 2nd in the B1G, but no worse than 3rd, and would shore up your NCAA position (assuming you don't choke the mid-week games).