It's NCAA Tournament time! Michigan Softball made the tourney for the 27th consecutive season on Sunday, being placed into the Orlando Regional with #16 UCF after losing in the B1G Tournament title game to Nebraska on Saturday. In today's piece we'll rehash what went down in the BTT, then talk about the selection show (including a fantastic night for B1G teams), and then preview the Orlando Regional, which appears winnable. 

 

Recapping the B1G Tournament 

Michigan was the 4-seed in the B1G Tournament and they drew the 5-seed Maryland Terrapins in the quarterfinals to begin the tourney. The two teams were decently close in the regular season, but this game was not competitive. Michigan jumped out to a lead in the first inning and then poured five runs on in the third, including a two-run HR by Taylor Bump and a two RBI triple from Annabelle Widra. In perhaps the best news of that day, Alex Storako looked more like her peak self, throwing five shutout innings with only four baserunners allowed and six strikeouts, cruising along with the 7-0 lead intact. She handed it over to Widra, who then slammed the door with two efficient innings and Michigan was off to the semis. 

Against Northwestern on Friday, Michigan was looking to get revenge for that series in Evanston where the Wolverines held 6th inning leads in all three games, but came away with only one win. This time the script was flipped, as Michigan would be the one entering the later innings trailing, only to come from behind to snatch victory. The game was a tight pitching duel between NU star Danielle Williams and Michigan veteran lefty Meghan Beaubien.

Both were pretty clean through four innings, but Beaubien ran into trouble in the bottom of the fifth. She issued a leadoff walk and then hit a batter, being yanked with two on and nobody out. Widra was called in from the bullpen and she proceeded to get a fielder's choice and a strikeout. With runners on 2nd and 3rd and two outs, Michigan opted to intentionally walk star slugger Rachel Lewis. However, unlike in the MLB nowadays, you don't just get to put the runner on; you still have to throw four balls. That's when disaster struck, as one of the intentional balls rolled between Hannah Carson's legs to the backstop for a humiliating wild pitch to score the go-ahed run. 

Losing a game 1-0 on an intentional ball wild pitch is one of the more embarrassing ways you could lose a game, but that's what Michigan was staring down with two outs in the top of the seventh. On the first pitch, Hannah Carson laced a single to right field and got aboard, bringing Bump to the plate. The fifth year slugger has had a tough season, but for the second straight day she played the hero, slamming a no-doubt, two-run HR to left: 

TAYLOR BUMP WITH A TWO-OUT, TWO-RUN SHOT! MICHIGAN LEADS IN THE SEVENTH! @taylorbump13

T7 | Michigan 2, Northwestern 1 pic.twitter.com/25QGSvdee7

— Michigan Softball (@umichsoftball) May 13, 2022

That put Michigan ahead 2-1 and Widra went back to the circle and got a 1-2-3 bottom half to close out a win. Michigan was off to the championship game, having notched another big win for their tourney resume. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More BTT recap & the NCAAs]

In the title game, Michigan drew the 2nd-seeded Huskers, who they were winless against on the season. Storako started the game and ceded a run on the fourth pitch she threw, a solo shot to Cam Ybarra. Credit to Storako though, as she settled down after that and kept the explosive Husker offense in check for the remainder of regulation, giving Michigan a chance to win the game. The Wolverines got plenty of base runners off Olivia Farrell, but had trouble coming up with big hits when runners were in scoring position. They left a runner on second in the third, got Lexie Blair to third base with *nobody out* in the fourth and stranded her, before finally tying the game on an Audrey LeClair double in the fifth. Even then, they left runners on the corners to end the inning. 

The game was 1-1 into the bottom of the seventh and Michigan had a chance to walk it off for the title. Farrell beaned Widra and walked Kristina Burkhardt, and was yanked from the circle with the meat of the order coming up. LeClair was at the plate, and I was expecting a SAC bunt from a player who lays plenty of bunts down even when she's not hitting in sacrifice situations. Yet stunningly, they only had her attempt a bunt once (which went foul), before she got the green light to swing again. Rather than moving the runners up, she grounded into a double play, which left a runner on third with two outs. Lexie Blair popped up and the inning was over. 

That frustrating inning was the closest Michigan got to winning it all. Despite getting the first two batters out in the eighth, Storako finally cracked, giving up a walk, double, and single to make it 3-1. She was removed from the circle in favor of Lauren Derkowski, who ended the inning, and the Wolverines went in order in the bottom half. Game over, and a runner up finish. The first title for the Cornhuskers. 

 

[JD Scott]

R-E-S-P-E-C-T 

The next day was the NCAA Tournament Selection Show and the big storyline was the B1G finally getting respect from the committee. After a strong B1G season that was rewarded in 2019 (three regional hosts(!) and six teams in), the conference was snubbed majorly last season (zero regional hosts, just three teams in). I get that it was mostly the result of playing a conference-only slate, but it made many of the B1G coaches furious. This season they loaded up the non-conference schedules of their respective teams and made a concerted effort as a conference to get more respect. It seems to have paid off. Though Northwestern was the only regional host (9th seeded), the conference got seven teams in, the same number as the PAC-12(!!), and many of the teams were seeded far higher than expected. 

Perhaps the best example of this was the fact that Minnesota, who had a losing record in conference play, and was barely over .500 on the season, got into the tournament as an at-large team. I get that they had a couple quality wins in the non-conference (beat ASU and UCF, two regional hosts), but seeing the Gophers in was still a stunning development in my opinion. in the old days, having a losing record in the B1G would get tomatoes thrown at you by the committee, not an inclusion into the field, no matter what your RPI is. 

Wisconsin, who was very similar to Minnesota in conference play (12-11) also made it in, while Maryland, who finished 14-8 in conference but played a weak non-conference schedule, were left out. The reasoning was pretty clearly RPI, which had Wisconsin/Minnesota in the top 50, while Maryland was 83rd. The discrepancy can be explained by the gap in non-conference schedule quality. The juxtaposition between the Badgers/Gophers, who played a tough non-conference and did poorly in the B1G (yet made it in), and the Terps, who played an easy non-con and did well in the B1G (yet were left out), sends an exceptionally clear message on what the committee was looking for. They wanted to see B1G teams beef up and those who did got rewarded for it, with a good RPI leading to favorable seeding. 

[JD Scott]

Perhaps that explains why Michigan were seeded 17th (the second seed in the #16 regional), ahead of Nebraska on the seed line, even though Nebraska went 3-0 against Michigan in the B1G and finished higher in the standings. The committee clearly didn't care nearly as much about how teams did in the B1G, tying their rankings to performance in the non-conference (which again, fuels RPI heavily) more than conference play. In other words, the Maize & Blue picked a great season to do fine in the non-con and then flop in conference play. 

In case you were curious how the coaches are responding to this, Hutch was pleased: 

Thanks for recognizing the B1G efforts! The conference coaches have been collaborating to improve our league! @espn how bout a little recognition! https://t.co/zrBHYBX2BF

— Carol Hutchins (@UMCoachHutch) May 16, 2022

In total, the seven teams in were Northwestern, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. I don't expect many to advance beyond the first weekend but it was a great indicator for the overall depth of the league. 

 

[JD Scott]

Previewing Orlando 

Michigan got the best possible draw in terms of advancing beyond the opening weekend, by drawing the lowest ranked regional host, #16 UCF (for the second year in a row after drawing #16 Washington last season). If you wanted a draw that set up favorably for making OKC, then this one is very much not that, as the second weekend would almost certainly be against #1 Oklahoma, who are a fire-breathing death machine. But for how bumpy of a season Michigan has had, simply getting back to the Supers would be progress in my book. So, let's focus on Orlando. 

Michigan will be facing South Dakota State in the first game on Friday at 3:30 pm. You have to win that one to get a chance to play the regional host, something you can never take for granted (the 2018 team never even got to play regional host Kentucky because they couldn't get past Notre Dame). South Dakota State isn't as good as Notre Dame was then, but they are definitely not a team you can assume is an automatic W.

The Jackrabbits went 40-11 overall and 18-2 in the Summit League and are 46th in RPI. You know that Nebraska team that Michigan couldn't beat? Yeah, SDSU went 2-1 against them during the non-conference. The other common opponents are Drake and Minnesota, who South Dakota State went 0-2 against, while Michigan took two of three from the Gophers and beat the Bulldogs in March. South Dakota State also lost to Iowa, who Michigan did not see. Relevant: Iowa finished dead last in the B1G Softball standings. Are the Jackrabbits better than Michigan? I don't think so. But it's not a team you can write off. 

[JD Scott]

They're a good hitting team, inside the top 50 in team batting average and 22nd in the country in slugging percentage. Three hitters boast double-digit HRs, which is a bit of a danger spot against a Michigan pitching staff that has struggled with hard contact. Nine hitters have OBPs >.350 and while there is some degree of a strength of schedule adjustment needed, they can hit. They hung 6 and 16 runs on Nebraska, 7 in one game on Wichita State, and 8 on Minnesota. That said, there's some element of a Jekyll and Hyde situation here, as they put up only 1 on Iowa, 2 on a good Oregon State team, and then in those WSU and Nebraska series, they also scored 0 and 1 in other games. It's a team I could see battering Michigan's pitching, or getting silenced. Both feel possible. 

The rotation consists of two pitchers, Tori Kniesche and Grace Glanzer. Both have very good numbers, but Kniesche would be considered the ace, with lethal swing-and-miss stuff. She was dominant in the Summit League, but was much more hittable in the non-conference, getting knocked around by Wichita State, Iowa State, and in one start against Nebraska. She's good, but not unbeatable. 

[UCF Athletics]

If Michigan is able to get by SDSU, they would see UCF. The Knights are playing Villanova first and are expected to get through that matchup, and if the Wolverines and Knights do meet, it would be a rematch of a game played in Clearwater back in February. Michigan won that one 6-0, with the Wolverine hitters handling Kaitlyn Felton, while Alex Storako was dominant. It won't be that easy this time around, as I'd expect UCF to start either Gianna Mancha or Kama Woodall in the circle instead, both of whom had good seasons. Mancha is the ace, with a 1.70 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. 

UCF is a solid hitting team, without a ton of power but they get on base a lot. A team OBP of .400 and they put pressure on the base paths, with 87 steals (on 102 attempts). They rank in the top 50 in stolen bases per game by a team and in that way, these two teams are pretty similar. Good but not elite pitching, good hitters who hit more for contact and on-base than power, and both have a speed dimension. If the two teams come to play each other, I would expect it to be tight and I'd be surprised if the regional final doesn't go to a deciding third game. 

Overall, there's a pretty wide range of outcomes here. I wouldn't be shocked if Michigan dropped the first game to SDSU and went quietly. I also wouldn't be surprised if they won the regional. This team has had moments when they've looked capable of getting to the second weekend and beyond, and times when they don't look like a serious contender for much of anything. The Storako performance of last weekend seems like a prerequisite, and the timely hitting has to come through. It's a bit of an unknown right now, but we shall see.